Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

Stockholm Syndrome

December 8, 2019 – Weekly Comment “That was totally worth it,” she says one morning, eyes pleading through the camera for relief from her torment. The final moments show her sitting on the couch with her partner—the man who gave her this albatross in the first place—to review her video diaries from the past year. […]

Posted on December 8, 2019 at 9:27 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Beyond Payrolls

Dec 6, 2019 –While yields pushed a bit higher on Thursday,  several large trades favored a move toward lower rates.  For example, early in the day there was a buyer of 40k EDG0 9850/9862/9875 call tree for 0.25 (settled flat; 2.0, 1.25 and 0.75 vs EDH0 9831.5), and late in the day on a negative […]

Posted on December 6, 2019 at 5:11 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Finding neutral ground

Dec 5, 2019 –Both bonds and SP500 gave back about half of the large moves seen Monday and Tuesday to leave markets in a more neutral stance going into the employment data.  On Nov 21, TYH0 topped at 130-04 and on Tuesday at 130-045, and is now 129-135, leaving a double top.  As seen on […]

Posted on December 5, 2019 at 5:20 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Stalled negotiations

December 3, 2019 –Yields rose and the curve steepened yesterday, even as stocks fell with the prospect of stagnant trade talks and slower growth.  ISM Mfg yesterday was only 48.1 and Prices were soft at 46.7, both weaker than expected.  The ten year yield rose 5 bps to 1.826%, though it’s reversing some of that […]

Posted on December 3, 2019 at 8:15 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Dr Woo

December 1, 2019 – Weekly comment This week we start out with some notes on Dr Copper, a commodity previously said to have a PhD in economics because it was such a ubiquitous manufacturing input and therefore its price indicated turning points in the economy. At this point, I’m not sure if its price has […]

Posted on December 1, 2019 at 4:34 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Credit flashers

November 29, 2019 –Stocks slightly lower as Trump signed the Hong Kong democracy bill, further complicating efforts for a trade deal with China.  On Wednesday, US yields rose, with tens up 3 bps to 1.769%. This morning shows little change with TYH0 129-155.  Today features an early close at 1:15 EST.   –Bloomberg running a headline […]

Posted on November 29, 2019 at 5:11 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Calm before the storm

Nov 27, 2019 –Even as stocks continue to make new highs, yields are falling.  Tens fell a couple bps yesterday to 1.738%.  New lows in several euro$ one-year calendars, for example EDM0/EDM1 closed down 0.5 at -19.0 and EDU0/EDU1 down 1 at -11.5.  On November 7, this latter spread had actually edged into positive territory, […]

Posted on November 27, 2019 at 5:20 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Does M2 Matter?

November 24, 2019 On Monday, President Trump called an unscheduled meeting with Fed Chairman Powell. Here’s what Powell could have said in that meeting: Mr. President, I have taken several strong steps in support of your re-election campaign.  Beginning in the second half, we’ve cut rates three times.  It’s well known that monetary policy acts […]

Posted on November 24, 2019 at 10:28 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Done with austerity

Nov 22, 2019 -Reuters reports that President Xi wants to work out a Phase I deal, but isn’t afraid to retaliate if necessary.  Right out of the Trump play book.  Christine Lagarde gave her first speech as head of the ECB, but avoided monetary policy and said the ECB must generate internal domestic demand through […]

Posted on November 22, 2019 at 5:16 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

C students

November 21, 2019 –There’s an interesting video post on twitter with Raoul Pal and Keith McCollough where the latter notes that the spread between BBB and CCC corps keeps moving higher.  I created the attached chart from the St Louis Fed website.  Indeed. the CCC effective rate is nearing the high seen at the end […]

Posted on November 21, 2019 at 4:28 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options