Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

Testing highs from the last FOMC in front of minutes

November 20, 2019 –In skimming various news items this morning on the US/China trade saga, both the possibility of tariff rollbacks and increases are mentioned.  In any case, the path to an easy start with a Phase One deal has hit a snag with the Senate’s passage of a Hong Kong bill of rights which […]

Posted on November 20, 2019 at 4:36 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Come see me at the White House…

November 19, 2019 –Yields once again eased lower with tens down 2.6 bps to 1.805%.  Another snag in US/China talks yesterday morning sparked a rally in fixed income, and reports of an unscheduled meeting between Trump and Powell underscored the administration’s pressure for easier money and a weaker dollar.  While the Fed’s subsequent statement stayed […]

Posted on November 19, 2019 at 5:06 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Corrections and housekeeping

Nov 18. 2019 In this morning’s post, I mistakenly said that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was being released. If is…. but I was a week early. I guess that’s why we call them FUTURES markets. Also, on the Deer Season post of Nov 17. apparently the links and pictures didn’t work. I […]

Posted on November 18, 2019 at 5:37 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Quick notes

November 18, 2019 –China trimmed its key 7-day repo from 2.55% to 2.50%, a small sign of easing.  Today the Chicago Fed national Activity Index released, expected -0.50 from -0.45 last.  The low was in April at -0.84, but weakness has persisted through the year.  While stocks look to start the day higher, gold is […]

Posted on November 18, 2019 at 5:17 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Deer (in the headlights) season

November 17, 2019 – Weekly comment In the beginning of November, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q4 estimate was 1.5%.  On Friday, with the release of Retail Sales and Industrial Production, that estimate was downgraded to 0.3%.  Real personal consumption expenditures and gross private domestic investment decreased from 2.1 and -2.3 to 1.7 and -4.4%.  The […]

Posted on November 17, 2019 at 12:38 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

FED IMPLEMENTS POLICIES TO HELP TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN!

November 15. 2019 –This morning it’s all about US/China Phase I, with Kudlow setting the table tor a deal.  Stocks have surged to new highs.  Timing’s right for a December signing and the tease of further progress. Bonds also surged yesterday, with tens -6.1 bps to 1.813%.  Euro$ contracts from EDH21 through the golds were […]

Posted on November 15, 2019 at 5:17 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

There’s a bias toward ease; are option markets overpricing?

Nov 14, 2019 –On a day filled with events and news, trading was subdued.  Yields fell with tens -3.6 bps to 1.874%.  The curve edged slightly flatter.  Red euro$ pack (2nd year) settled +4.75 while greens through golds were +5.0 to +6.0.  Stocks started the day lower but were able to close positive, as Powell […]

Posted on November 14, 2019 at 5:25 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Risks building for stocks and bonds

November 11, 2019 –Hang Seng down 2.6% as violence in Hong Kong escalates and Shanghai Comp -1.8%.  US stock futures also point to a lower open on this holiday session and bonds are seeing a very modest bounce.    –Curve continued to steepen Friday with 2/10 posting a new high at 26.6.  Twos fell 1.1 […]

Posted on November 11, 2019 at 6:41 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Another case of repo indigestion coming?

November 10. 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-08/why-the-repo-markets-went-crazy-podcast I am starting with a link from Bloomberg which is a podcast with Zoltan Poszar about repo and liquidity issues.  It’s about 50 minutes long, but well worth the listen.  On Friday, I saw this trade, EDZ9 9800/9812 strangle sold at 3.25.  The 98.125c settled 2.5 and the 98.00p settled 1.0.   […]

Posted on November 10, 2019 at 2:39 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Big yield jump; limited from here?

Nov 8, 2019 –Big day Thursday.  Yields jumped with tens up 10.5 bps to 1.917%.  New high in 2/10 at 24.4, up 3.7 on the day.  All near euro$ calendar spreads made new highs.  EDH20/EDH21 rose 6 bps to -11.5.  EDU20/EDU21 settled POSITIVE 0.5 bp, with all spreads following also positive.  Reds/greens up nearly 3 […]

Posted on November 8, 2019 at 5:09 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options