Chartpoint

August 13. Get ready for containment strategies

–Turkish lira made a new low but US market taking it in stride.  TRY fell to 7 but rebounded slightly; last around 6.9.  China yuan also at  a new low, 6.88.  Well at least those two are at parity.  South African Rand plunged 10%.  Time to get out some duct tape and Krazy glue and try to repair this thing.
–In spite of Friday’s massive call spread exit in TYU, the ten year yield dropped 7.4 bps to 2.86%.  The sales were TYU 120/121 and 120/122 call spreads.  Open interest in the 120c fell 106k, 121c -44k and 122c -23k.  At the end of the day, 120c settled 35 (ref 120-12) right around the initial premium paid for the 120/122cs.  While these call spreads were exited, there was obviously new positioning in futures, as TY open interest went up 101k.   Fear is to the upside, and on the dollar curve, reds to greens and greens to blues (2nd to 3rd year and 3rd to 4th) are still slightly inverted.
–As mentioned over the weekend, EDZ8/FFF9 settled just 30 bps, right at the low end of the range.  Quite odd given stress in the european banking system related to Turkey, with new lows in a couple of the names mentioned in news reports on Friday (UniCredit and BBVA).  The Fed effective has been solidly anchored at 1.91 bps, and FFV8 settled at 97.865 or 2.135 bps, up only 1 on the day on Friday.  The spread between the fed effective and FFV of 22.5 bps indicates near market certainty that the Fed won’t be shaken from plans to hike in September.

–And don’t forget Venezuela, which is now at risk of losing Citgo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/judge-canadian-firm-can-go-after-venezuelas-us-refineries/2018/08/09/1398112e-9c43-11e8-a8d8-9b4c13286d6b_story.html?utm_term=.ecd341f69e87

 

 

 

Posted on August 13, 2018 at 5:11 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

August 12. The North Anatolian Fault

The old Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor between Monroe and Madison Streets on the east bank of the Chicago river is somewhat of an architectural marvel.  The three storey, 36000 square foot (3345 square meter) space was designed to be devoid of structural pillars that would impede eyesight across the pits, and so it was suspended between two towers.

However, as engineering feats go, it’s a mere trifle in comparison to Hagia Sophia in Istanbul.  Originally commissioned by the Byzantine Emperor Justinian as an Eastern Orthodox cathedral, it was completed in the year 537.  At the time, it was the world’s largest building, capped by a massive dome that required completely new building techniques.  The architects were Greek geometers Anthemius of Tralles and Isadore of Miletus.  The main building is square, with soaring arches on each side.  Because of the immense spans of these arches, huge supporting pillars are on the outside, containing the lateral forces.  It is 269 feet long and 240 feet wide or over 64,000 square feet.  The dome rises 182 feet.

The architects were aware that earthquakes were prevalent in this area, and it is thought the design accounted for this fact.  The building used new materials, including a mortar composed of crushed brick, lime and sand, which was more tensile.  The bricks in the dome were fired at lower temperatures than ordinary brick and were thus less dense and lighter in weight.  The building is near the North Anatolian Fault (comparable to the San Andreas Fault), and while the dome collapsed in an earthquake in 558, it was re-built and has miraculously withstood many quakes since that time including the 1999 Izmit disaster (7.6).  One could easily spend all day watching documentaries and reading articles on this fascinating building, but I have only added a couple of links at the bottom.

Hagia Sophia means Holy Wisdom, in ironically short supply across our modern world.

The markets were shaken this week by a metaphorical earthquake which collapsed the Turkish lira (down nearly 14% on Friday alone, and down 41% ytd).  Like the computer generated models that simulate earthquake effects on Hagia Sophia, modern central bankers create ‘stress tests’ for the financial system.  However, the ECB expressed concern about some banks’ exposure to Turkey and shortly thereafter Trump decided to ramp up the pressure by increasing tariffs.

The last period of market angst was in late May, as the Italian political situation caused some to question whether Italy would stay in the euro.   Many markets are testing key areas right around stress levels that obtained at that time.  The euro actually slid below the level of late May which was around 1.15, now 1.14.  The US ten year treasury note which ended Friday at 2.86% (at futures settlement) is holding just above the low yield in late May which was 2.78%.  The German bund which traded 26 bps on May 29 was yielding 31.7 on Friday.  The spread between Italy and German 10’s got just above 290 in late May.  Friday’s level of 268.5 is the highest it has been since early June.  The JPM emerging market currency index (FXJPEMCS) is testing lows last seen in early 2016, after the energy rout of 2015.

Overall, equity markets have shown utter disregard.  While some European bank stocks were hard hit on Friday, including the Italian bank stock index which is around the low of late May, US markets are well above levels from that period.  VIX had a slight tremble, moving up 1.52 on the week from 11.64 to 13.16.  The eurostoxx index was down 1.94% Friday, around the low in May but well above the low of the year in March.

In spite of long dated treasury auctions in the past week, the curve flattened, with the 2y note -4.5 bps and tens -8.6.  Tens also easily absorbed a large exit of TY call spreads Thursday and Friday, with over 200k TYU8 120 calls sold (120/122 call spreads and 120/121 call spreads).  The 120 call started the week with nearly 330k open and ended with just 135k.  September treasury options expire one week from Friday; TYU settled 120-12.

Recently, every time a large event is perceived to rattle markets, follow-through is limited, forcing break-out players to exit positions.  Currently, many markets are in critical areas which could lead to violent moves.  The dollar index made a new high for the year (will it continue?).  The euro has a head and shoulder formation, closing below the 50% retrace from the late low in 2016 (1.0341) to the tax-plan high earlier this year of 1.2555. Friday’s close targets the 105 area.  In terms of yield, the ten year treasury is right at the support of a gently sloping uptrend from April.  A close below 2.84 would initially target around 2.70.  While vol firmed slightly in rates at the end of the week, premium is still quite cheap.  That is, if we see break-out moves.  The jury is still out.  The light volume, low liquidity, holiday month of August can still provide excitement.  We’ll see if it holds together or crumbles.

Domestic news this week includes Retail Sales and Industrial Production on Wednesday.  TIC flows also late Wednesday with focus on Japan and China treasury holdings. Philly Fed on Thursday.  Of course, the geopolitical drama with US, Turkey, Russia, China and Iran is likely to overshadow all else.

EURUSD below

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted on August 12, 2018 at 11:14 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Aug 10. Freefallin’

–The Turkish Lira is in freefall this morning (TRY 6.26 high), and yuan is also weaker at 6.85.  USD stronger across the board with DXY breaking out to new highs for the year.  US equities had a weak close and are currently under pressure with ESU -15 at 2838.75.  It looks to be a “risk-off” end to the week with european banks also getting slammed, for example the Italian bank index (IT8300) is down 2.1% this morning, at the bottom end of the past two month range.
–Big trade yesterday was an exit sale of 120k TYU 120/122 call spread at 12 to 11.  Settled at 11, ref 119-23.  Open interest fell by 95.4k and 84.5k.  There’s more left in this trade, as the 120 calls, (which are at the money this morning) still have 241k open.  Sept treasury options expire two weeks from today.  There was little in the way of concession for this week’s huge refunding; all selling is absorbed with a bid to follow.
–Relentless bid in EDU8 with a settle of 9761 yesterday, just 6.6 bps below the settlement of EDM18, but with a 25 bp hike fully expected.  Oct Fed funds are cemented at 9785.5 or 2.145%, with the Fed effective 1.91%. Previously, the market would have had some concerns about funding pressures, given bank weakness associated with TRY, and vulnerability in other emerging mkt fx.  In the current environment, the central banks ‘have our backs’.  Right? (crickets).  All the same, EDU8 9762.5p at 3.25 bps and EDU8 9750 puts which traded small at 0.25 yesterday seem to be on the cheap side. [THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION-but I sure wouldn’t sell these puts].
–August midcurves expire today.  Yesterday I mentioned 3EQ 9700 straddle which was 3.0/3.5 ref 9699.5.  Settled 3.5, but futures this morning are 9704.0 with a full day ahead.
–CPI expected +0.2 with 2.9 yoy.  Core yoy expected 2.3%
–Below is a chart which indicates divergence between oil and emerging mkt currencies.  Stronger USD should act as a weight on all commodities…
–Interesting article on the promise of block-chain, not just in terms of crypto-ccy, but in terms of paperwork simplification.  Maersk, the shipping giant, has created a block-chain platform for shipping documents.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-blockchain-maersk-ibm/maersk-ibm-say-94-organizations-have-joined-blockchain-trade-platform-idUSKBN1KU1LM?il=0&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark
Posted on August 10, 2018 at 5:26 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Aug 9. The Cadillac of minivans

–New low in Russian ruble due to freshly imposed US sanctions, and the Turkish lira also continues to plunge to new lows. Strongmen of Venezuela and Turkey borrowing pages from the same playbook with plunging fx and action-movie coup attempts.  Rate trading remains lethargic in the US, with yields steady to lower yesterday.  Crude oil a large mover, plunging 2.23 to settle 66.94, testing the low from mid-July; looks to target 65 or lower.

–It’s probably here that I should include the Frankie C crossword story from the ED option pit.  Faced with the clue, Coup d’_ _ _ _ he dutifully filled in VILL, a nod to the classic Cadillac model, taking artistic license by dropping the “E”.
–US stocks hold firm, though this article (citing work from the Leuthold Group) indicates lofty valuation with respect to S&P 500 price to sales ratio.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/behold-the-scariest-chart-for-the-stock-market-2018-08-08
–In option trading, there was a large exit of EDZ8 9737/9762c spread, 50k sold at 3.5.  On July 18 there was a buyer of this call spread 2x vs 2EZ 9737c 1x for 0.5.  Yesterday as the call spread was sold at 3.5, the 2EZ calls were trading 4.0, so the original package priced at a value of 3.0.  After the front call spread, 2EZ 9712/9737c 1×3 was sold at -3.0; buying back the short leg of the original package.
–News today includes Jobless Claims 220k, PPI expected +0.2 and +2.8 Core yoy.  Thirty year auction caps the auctions, following a solid 10 year yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mohoyRj_VpU
Posted on August 10, 2018 at 5:22 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Aug 8. Herd mentality

–Rates trading continues to underwhelm, with tens rebounding 3.9 bps to 2.973.  Ten year auction today, followed by 30’s tomorrow.  Near eurodollar calendar spreads remain well bid. with EDU8/EDU9 closing at its high of 60 bps.  EDU8/EDZ8 edged to a new high settle of 25.5.  Decent amount of trade in December midcurves, for example, 20k 2EZ 9687/9675/9662 put tree bought for a small credit (sold pieces).  Settled -0.5 (14.0, 9.0, 5.5 vs 9693.0; 9 call delta).  Back end of dollar curve completely flat.  Red and blue packs (2nd and 4th year) settled at identical prices: 96.94625.
–Warnings continue, this one from Pimco’s Dan Ivascyn: “Now the major central banks are trying to step away from the accommodation that they have provided to the markets for many years, and their influence is being quickly replaced by that of politics.” [huh?]  “For both equity and fixed income investors, we think this means lower returns and, unfortunately, higher volatility.”
Except that we aren’t seeing much in the way of volatility.  On CNBC yesterday Goldman’s Kostin said something like $750 billion in share buybacks have already been authorized this year.  Another later guest (I missed his name, from Centerstone) said the number of names on the NYSE has been declining, down by about half in recent years, due to M&A, firms going private etc, while the opposite is true in Europe and Asia.  I suppose Tesla’s announcement yesterday is indicative…  There was a clip out yesterday that the PBOC is telling banks to avoid ‘herd behavior’ with respect to the yuan.  In the US, buybacks coupled with low rates are herding people into equities.
–Consumer credit data surprised by being weak, up only $10.2b vs expected $15b, but revolving credit actually FELL.  Likely just payback from previous strong month.  But could it partially be due to banks starting to tighten credit standards?  Attached chart shows banks modestly tighter on personal loans and credit cards.
–One last note, posted yesterday (thanks AOK) “Making the rounds on Chinese social media. Apple alone would account for 1/6 of total Chinese stock market value.  But then, Shanghai alone would account for 1/6 total US housing stock (@ WeiDuCNA)  [of course, population of Shanghai is ~25 million]
The % of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards on Consumer loans and Credit Cards
Posted on August 8, 2018 at 5:29 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Aug 7. Drifting prices

While stocks continue to press higher, there is little pressure on fixed income.  The ten year yield drifted further away from 3%, falling 1.7 to a yield of 293.4.  Eurodollar curve was marginally flatter on light volume.  China’s reserves unexpectedly rose in July to $3.118T, up 5.8 billion.  Japan’s 30 year yield pushed over 85 bps, while Germany’s 10y hovers around 40 bps.
–The dollar has eased slightly this morning after testing new highs yesterday.  JOLTS data this morning with Consumer Credit in the afternoon.  Regarding the latter, note that the last release (for the month of May) was a barn-burner, coming in at $24.55 billion, about double expectations.   The spike at the end of last year came in the aftermath of damage associated with Hurricane Harvey; there was no good reason for May’s surge.
–A little snippet from Gavekal research: “The name of the game is to lose as little money as possible in the next 12 months. For those who cannot hedge their equity positions with fixed income, cash may be advisable. The most undervalued currencies today are the yen, RMB and Swedish krona.”  Two comments, 1) warnings to lighten up on equities are becoming more common and strident and 2) I’m not sure the “fixed income hedge” will work out as advertised.
–Above is chart of Consumer Credit…
Posted on August 7, 2018 at 5:24 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Aug 6. Quien es mas macho? Chuck Norris o Steven Seagal?

–Yields fell Friday as non-farms printed lower than expected at 157k.  Tens fell 3.3 bps to 295.1 despite facing auction supply this week, (3’s, 10’s 30’s starting Tuesday, to raise over $38b in new cash).  The eurodollar curve flattened with reds +2.875, greens +4, and blues +3.875.
–Several interesting stories this morning: From Reuters, BOJ’s architect of ‘shock and awe’ plots retreat from stimulus
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-policy-insight/bojs-architect-of-shock-and-awe-plots-retreat-from-stimulus-idUSKBN1KR0TA
From a Bloomberg story: “China is prepared for a “protracted war” and doesn’t fear sacrificing short-term economic interests, according to an editorial in the nationalist Global Times on Sunday evening.”  New low Shanghai Comp today.
–The most uplifting read of the day though, is a Zerohedge article reporting that martial arts actor Steven Seagal was appointed by Putin as a “goodwill ambassador” to help strengthen US-Russia ties.  I’d feel better if it was Chuck Norris.  The article shamelessly works in Seagal’s movie credits:
“US-Russia relations have been under siege since Russian President Vladimir Putin made the executive decision to annex Crimea in 2014
Out for justice, the US and others imposed harsh sanctions against Russia…”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-05/putin-appoints-steven-seagal-strengthen-us-russia-ties
–Summer markets, and summer in Chicago.  ABC news reports “63 people have been shot, ten fatally, since 5 p.m. Friday. 34 of the shootings and five deaths occurred between 10 a.m. Saturday and 10 a.m. Sunday, according to police.”
–I joined friends for a beer near the carnival now known as Wrigleyville Saturday. Great afternoon, but I miss the old feeling.  Ironically, this article was sent to me the next day.  http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/ct-ae-wrigleyville-20180805-story.html
Welcome to the boring, tedious confines of the new Wrigleyville”:

“It takes a lot to miss the days of undergraduate vomit splashed against a curb. It takes a lot to make a person pine for fast-food restaurant booths at 2 a.m. full of hardcore punk bands from Des Moines. Or to long to hear terrible white blues bands spilling out of dumb bars again. Or to wish the pavement smelled like cheap beer every Sunday morning, or that every storefront looked as if it were operated by your sketchiest of sketchy cousins.

And yet that’s the kind of perverse melancholy I feel when I visit Wrigleyville these days.

There’s a great joke in “The Blues Brothers” Dan Aykroyd lists his home address as 1060 W. Addison, and when members of the Illinois Nazi Party track him down, they find themselves standing at the corner of Clark and Addison, in front of Wrigley Field. Thirty-eight years later, that joke is dead. No one would imagine a dodgy working-class artist, never mind a penniless white blues musician, living anywhere near the new Wrigleyville.
Amen
http://norewardisworththis.tumblr.com/post/64845798933/snl-quien-es-mas-macho-sketch-from-21719
Posted on August 6, 2018 at 5:21 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Aug 5. Weekly rate comment – “Good luck bro!”

(Reuters, July 6).  Tracking the journey of the vessel, Peak Pegasus, as it motored toward the northern Chinese port of Dalian was the 34th-highest trending topic on [China’s] Twitter-like Weibo on Friday, beating out the World Cup, showbiz gossip and Beijing’s escalating trade war with Washington.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-soybeans/go-ship-go-china-roots-for-last-u-s-soybean-cargo-to-land-before-tariffs-kick-in-idUSKBN1JW1IZ

The snippet above was one of several stories about Peak Pegasus, a US cargo ship with a hold of soybeans that was racing to the Chinese port of Dalian in an effort to beat implementation of tariffs on July 6; the ship had left Seattle on June 8.  Weibo users were rooting for the ship to make it: “Good luck bro!” “Go, ship go!”  It reminds me of the movie The Gauntlet, where Clint Eastwood plays a washed-up cop tasked with delivering a prostitute across the desert from Las Vegas to Phoenix so that she can testify in a mob trial.  Of course there are many attempts to kill them on the way, and a side-show of wagers on whether they can actually make it alive.  Peak Pegasus fell just a few hours short, incurring a 25% surcharge.  Clint, of course, delivers.  Hey, you make YOUR comparisons, I’ll make mine.

The overarching plot of US vs China trade wars is taking center stage, outlined by Larry Kudlow last week on CNBC.  “…it looks to me like the China economy is declining in growth. It’s weakening almost across the board. And it looks like the People’s Bank of China is trying to pump it up by adding high-powered money and new credit.  …Some of the currency fall, though, I think is just money leaving China because it’s a lousy investment. And if that continues that will really damage the Chinese economy. If money leaves China – and the currency could be a leading indicator – they’re going to be in a heap of trouble. And so I’m going to make the case that they are in a weak economic position – that’s not a good place for them to be vis-à-vis the trade negotiations – first point. Second point, they better not underestimate President Trump’s determination to follow through on our asks…”

Perhaps one finer point of the above quote is this:  If the US continues to ratchet up pressure, and if that DOES accelerate the Chinese economy to “heap of trouble” status, will the US not also suffer negative consequences?  Danielle DiMartino Booth in her newsletter the Daily Feather, highlights some interesting notes with respect to trade effects on California.  “CA has the highest exposure to China and the largest trade gap with China of any US state.  In 2017 CA accounted for nearly 40% of the merchandise trade deficit with China or $143b of the total $375b.   …CA’s $159b in 2017 Chinese imports was almost 4 times as large as the next closest state, Texas, which imported $43b in good from China last year.”

She adds: “The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach comprise the largest port complex in the US….Together they handle a fourth of all container cargo traffic in the US.”

When looking at the Port websites (links at bottom), it appears as if cargo volumes have surged, likely to beat trade measures, with a lot of Peak Pegasus runs.  The Port of Long Beach had a record June 2018, with loaded inbound containers totaling 384095.  “Container cargo volumes reached record heights at the Port of Long Beach last month, surging past the previous mark and distinguishing June 2018 as the Port’s best month ever.”  The Port of LA had a small yoy dip in June, however, “It is the second fiscal year the Port has surpassed the 9.1 million TEU mark, with 24 months of record breaking cargo movement.”

We’ve already seen the wholesale price of lemons double due to California wildfires.   How much more can the state handle if Chinese trade abruptly declines?  The US continues to talk up the fight against a powerful adversary.  A little like Muhammad Ali.  But sometimes, there’s an unexpected response:  “His mouth made him [feel] like he was gonna win. Not his hands, I had my hand. He had his lips.”  –Joe Frazier, who beat Ali March 8, 1971.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/other-sports/muhammad-alis-five-losses-403427.html

If the yuan reflects weakness in the Chinese economy, then the Chinese can sell reserves to stem that decline, and that means US treasuries.  However, the treasury market just doesn’t seem to be that sensitive to supply and demand sometimes.  From the Credit Bubble Bulletin. “An analyst on BBG tv made the important point that global QE is today in the neighborhood of $25 billion monthly, down from $125b one year ago.”  This week’s treasury auctions of $34b three-year notes, $26b tens and $18b of thirty year bonds will raise $39.78 billion in new cash.  It seems as if yields should conceivably be higher than they are.  However, the ten year note pulled back from the 3% brink last week, closing at 2.95% as non-farm payrolls came in on the soft side at 170k.  On the other hand, 30-yr JGB’s tacked on another few bps to 84.2, up from 68.5 two weeks ago.  Perhaps also worth a mention is that the spread between Italy and Germany tens increased on the week, closing at a five-week high of 252 bps, nearing the 290 bps set at the end of May.

There are a lot of geopolitical stresses and uncertainties across the globe.  Trump keeps pushing.  Domestically, it necessarily puts the Fed in a response mode.  That is, hold to a steady course until the data actually begins to change.  Although Mick Mulvaney, head of the OMB, insists that the US economy is not in a “sugar high”,  the market is projecting a slowdown into the end of next year and 2020, with the Eurodollar curve completely flat between September 2019 and September 2021 (all prices in that 2-yr period between 97.005 and 9695.0).  The only thing that’s absolutely 100% certain is that the terminal rate can never get back above 4%.  That is, if the guy that keeps adding long dated Eurodollar put ratios is correct.  Last week these traded: EDZ0 and EDM1 9625/9575 p 1×3’s at a 0.0 and a credit of 1.0, selling the 9575 (4.25%) puts.

One last point regarding sugar highs.  US equities surged into February on the President’s tax plan.  There was tremendous coverage last week regarding Apple’s trillion dollar market cap.  However, leadership is narrow, and much hope rides on the idea of continued buybacks.  Fourteen of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial components are lower ytd.  Not every horse has wings.  https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/?page=2

Treasury auctions this week.  PPI and CPI released Thursday and Friday.

 

7/27/2018 8/3/2018 chg
UST 2Y 267.3 264.1 -3.2
UST 5Y 284.6 281.6 -3.0
UST 10Y 296.0 295.1 -0.9
UST 30Y 308.7 309.2 0.5
GERM 2Y -59.9 -59.0 0.9
GERM 10Y 40.3 40.8 0.5
JPN 30Y 81.3 84.2 2.9
EURO$ Z8/Z9 39.0 37.5 -1.5
EURO$ Z9/Z0 0.5 1.0 0.5
EUR 116.56 115.68 -0.88
CRUDE (1st cont) 68.69 68.49 -0.20
SPX 2818.82 2840.35 21.53
VIX 13.03 11.64 -1.39

 

http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/teus_ytd.asp

http://www.polb.com/news/displaynews.asp?NewsID=1742&TargetID=1

Posted on August 5, 2018 at 10:43 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

August 3. Fear of downside (in bonds) is limited in front of payrolls

–Despite the stock rally, rates eased a couple of bps with tens down 1.7 bps to 2.984.  You MAY have heard that AAPL hit market cap of $1 trillion, which dominated the news all day long.  An article on BBG this morning notes that Japan’s market cap just edged out China’s, with both at about $6 trillion.  The sum of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB and MSFT is a bit over $4T, so those 5 combined are about 2/3rds of either China or Japan.  Make sense?
–And 1 trillion is, coincidentally about the size of the US budget deficit, as we go into supply of 3. 10 and 30-year auctions next week.
–The eurodollar curve from reds to golds eked out a new high just above 5.5 bps, having first gone negative around the 4th of July.
–Employment report today, with NFP expected 190k.  Average Hourly Earnings expected +2.7 annual rate.  Typically there’s some put buying of front midcurves in front of jobs data, but yesterday’s action leaned a bit more call buying (in both 0EU and 2EU 9712 strikes).  New low this morning in China’s currency, with CNY 6.8727.  In August of 2015, China’s devaluation caused waves of panic…barely a ripple now as the currency consistently slides.  However, the copper market seems to indicate concern, testing new lows, off about 12% from levels in May.
Posted on August 3, 2018 at 5:21 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

August 2. TTT trade fears spilling over

–Yields pushed higher and the curve steepened Wednesday; ADP was higher than expected at 219k, while Mfg ISM was a shade weaker at 58.1.  Ten year poked just above 3% ending up 3.9 bps at 3.005.  Although ranges have been rather tight in the curve, some new monthly highs seen.  EDU8/EDU9, the peak one-yr spread closed at 60 and EDU8/EDZ8 at 25.0, indicating growing odds of a December hike (following September’s).  Red/gold pack spread which hit a low of NEGATIVE 1.875 in July, posted a recent high of 5.125, up just over 3 bps yesterday (high last Feb was over 40 bps).   EDU9/EDU0 also set a new high of 7 bps, worth a mention due to large buyer a couple of weeks ago at 2.5 and a reasonable amount of long call structures on the first red (EDU9).  FOMC was non-event.
–This morning it’s all about trade fears again, with TTT (Trump tariff threats) coming fast and furious.  China’s ccy continues to weaken, 6.8454 today, and Shanghai Comp was down 2%, with S Korea Kopsi down 1.6% and ready to test new lows.  US stock futures also lower this morning, which is supporting FI.
–Factory Orders today with Payrolls tomorrow.  Bank of England this morning, with GBP softer and near new lows in spite of expected hike.
Posted on August 2, 2018 at 5:25 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options