Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

Ball of confusion

August 5, 2019 –Staggering moves this morning as China let the yuan breach 7 and suspended US agricultural imports.  New highs in all treasury contracts.  Red euro$ pack up 15 as of this writing with EDU0 at 9862.5 strike.  Stock markets are seeing fairly large losses with ESU down 44.  New low copper.  Gold is […]

Posted on August 5, 2019 at 5:03 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

It’s not me. It’s you.

Aug 4, 2019. Weekly Comment Consider the Sept’19 copper chart.  In Q4 it slid to a low of around 2.60 as risk assets tanked, partially in response to the Fed’s last hike in December.  As the Fed made a u-turn on policy at the start of the year, it ramped up to 3.00.  In the […]

Posted on August 4, 2019 at 11:41 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

August. The sleepy holiday month

August 2, 2019 –Trump’s cunning plan to announce additional tariffs on China to show Powell that lower rates are necessary went off without a hitch. Stocks tanked (SPX -0.90%) and interest rate futures have now priced two more cuts by the end of the year as a certainty.  FFQ9/FFF0 (August-Jan FF spread) settled -51.25.  Ok, […]

Posted on August 2, 2019 at 5:11 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

When is an easing cycle not an easing cycle?

Aug 1, 2019 –The Fed cut 25 and ended balance sheet run-off, pretty much as expected.  However, Powell caught the market off-guard with comments that indicate he’s the only one that doesn’t yet realize the Fed is in an easing cycle.  Stocks tanked and the curve flattened dramatically.  The two year yield rose 4.4 bps […]

Posted on August 1, 2019 at 5:16 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

It’s a league game Smokey

July 31, 2019 –Is Powell’s foot going to slip over the line? –Former NY Fed chief William Dudley wrote in an opinion piece yesterday on Bloomberg that today’s rate cut may not be followed by more.  He cited a concern that today’s move could “erode people’s expectations of future inflation…”  The Fed continues to point […]

Posted on July 31, 2019 at 5:13 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Beyond Budgets

July 30, 2019 –Yields eased yesterday with tens down 2.6 bps to 2.053%.  The first five years of the euro$ strip were +2 to +3  bps.  This morning rate futures are steady to a bit higher with US stock futures under marginal pressure.  The British pound is sinking due to Brexit worries, now below 1.22.  […]

Posted on July 30, 2019 at 5:14 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Quick note

July 29, 2019 –Longer maturities were little changed on Friday with tens at 2.079% (from 2.076).  However, the front end of the eurodollar curve was heavy with reds -3.0 on the day.  EDM0 and EDU0 weakest on the board closing -4.0.  The event of the week should be Wednesday’s FOMC announcement and press conference, followed […]

Posted on July 29, 2019 at 5:07 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Cheeseburger. No Coke. Pepsi.

July 28, 2019 Above is an interesting graphic from The Daily Shot last week, that shows the change in price over the past year for cheeseburger ingredients.  Of course, they forgot the Grey Poupon.  And the bacon.  An increase of 4.8%.  A couple of questions.  Who, in America, eats a 4 oz cheeseburger?  And how […]

Posted on July 28, 2019 at 9:12 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Q2 GDP (lower than expected?)

July 26, 2019 –Rate futures closed lower yesterday after an initial surge higher on the ECB (no rate cut, exploring additional stimulus).  EDU9 closed at 9784.0 (-2.5), the lowest settle since late May.  Front end continues to trade weak as t-bill supply is expected to weigh.  EDZ9 also settled -2.5 at 9793.5.  Once again, in […]

Posted on July 26, 2019 at 5:08 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Jumping off a bridge

July 25, 2019 –Yesterday’s Markit manufacturing PMIs pretty dismal for US and Germany as the attached chart shows.  ECB today with expectations of ease as the German bund trades negative 39 bps.  An article in Reuters notes that Swiss 50-year yields slipped below zero today, “meaning none of its bonds now offer buyers any interest.”  […]

Posted on July 25, 2019 at 5:19 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options