Unstable coin
July 14, 2025
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–Bitcoin continuing to rip higher this morning, $122.5k as of this Monday morning note. As can be seen on the attached chart, SPX priced in bitcoin is unsurprisingly making a new low, in concert with our government institutions. In 2020 , SPX priced in bitcoin plummeted with Treasury doling out direct USD payments as a response to covid in the US. Today: new lows.
–This morning Japanese bonds are at or through new highs. 10y JGB is just under 1.58%; last time here was 2008. Longer maturities are at the highest yields of the 2000s, with 30y 3.16%.
–US yields rose on Friday with the curve steeper. 2y +4.8 bps to 3.912%, 10y +7.9 bps to 4.421%. High in 2/10 in April was 65 bps (my mark, BBG has 64.2). Current 52.8. CPI is released tomorrow with yoy CPI expected 2.6% from 2.4% last. Let’s plant another story that Powell is corrupt and thinking of resigning. SFRZ5/SFRZ6 one-yr calendar is printing -65, down 1.5 on the day (9615, +1.5 and 9680, +3.5). Lowest print has been -67.5 on the employment data.
–Tariffs continue to dominate the news, but Epstein’s running a hot second. Threat of 30% on the EU, with a soft corn tortilla deadline of August 1. Earnings season kicking off with big banks tomorrow, JPM, C, WFC, BLK.
