Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Real rioting; virtual currency
June 2, 2020 –DXY is at a new recent low 97.45 and the long end of the treasury curve is simultaneously pressing to new high yields. Curve steepened yesterday with 5/30 above 115 (and 1.5 higher this morning). 2/10 closed 50.5, up 1.7 on the day. Little movement in euro$’s. Ten year yield ended at […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Ball of Confusion
June 1, 2020 –Protests, riots and looting give new meaning to ‘flight to safety’. However, equities have barely been dented. –Friday saw yields fall as the month closed, with tens down 5.7 to 64.4 bps. Curve flattened with 2/10 down 3.9 to 48.8. Vol slightly firmer.–Today’s news includes ISM Mfg expected 43.7 from 41.5 last. […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Judgments of Value
May 31, 2020 – Weekly comment Below are excerpts of a speech given by Alan Greenspan at Jackson Hole on August 27, 1999, ‘New Challenges for Monetary Policy’ On such judgments of value rest much of our economic system. Doubtless, valuations are shaped in part, perhaps in large part, by the economic process itself. But […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Lowest inflation data of year?
May 29, 2020 –I saw a note yesterday that Orange Juice was one of the best performing commodities this year. July (JON0) sank below 100 in March and soared over 130 in May, closing at 127.80 yesterday. Of course, crude oil has had a much larger percentage run off its debacle low in April (and […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Just skip to the bottom
May 28, 2020 –My opinion is that increased gov’t control saps economic dynamism. Continued efforts to bring Hong Kong into the ‘one country, one system’ umbrella were punctuated by Pompeo’s declaration that HK has lost its autonomy, which will surely have negative economic consequences. I think the same is true in the monetary realm, but […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Fixed it
May 26, 2020 –ESM at a new high for the move this morning above 3000, and just 450 away from all-time highs set in Feb. Mini-Nasdaq is up 176 at 9582; just one more day with this magnitude gain will eclipse the high settle in Feb of 9754.25. Everything is back to normal! Why, the […]
In: Eurodollar Options
The Road to Recovery
May 24, 2020 – Weekly comment Last week we had Maria Bartiromo’s morning show streaming, and her guest was gushing that he had his best month ever. He had something to do with RVs (recreational vehicles); the company might have been RVshare.com, an Airbnb for RVs. Of course! Can’t fly. Have time off. Shelter at […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Hong Kong autonomy dissolved. Illinois next
May 22, 2020 –The Hang Seng index fell 5.5% as China smothers Hong Kong’s autonomy. Shanghai Comp down 1.9% as well with China deciding to forgo forward guidance related to growth targets. By contrast Kospi down 1.4% and Nikkei down less than 1%. Treasuries are seeing a bid on the day of June option expiration. […]
In: Eurodollar Options
FB worth more than JPM+BAC+WFC+GS
May 21, 2020 –For the past month ESM has been in a clearly defined range of 2755 to 2965. Yesterday the high was 2975, indicating the possibility of an upside breakout. However, a few Trump tweets targeting China were enough to push the market back into lockdown range this morning (now 2950). Buyers of yesterday’s […]
In: Eurodollar Options
20 year auction: $20 billion
May 20, 2020 –May 20, 2020 and the treasury is auctioning $20 billion of 20 year bonds. W/I was 1.22 late yesterday. Also today Fed minutes from the April meeting will be released. –Yesterday’s QE operation was the largest of the week, a purchase of $9.5 billion of maturities under 2.5 years. Tomorrow the Fed […]
In: Eurodollar Options
