Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

New high gold

August 5, 2020 –On a closing basis, Tuesday was lowest ever yield in tens which are hovering just above 50 bps even as Nasdaq holds near new highs.  On June 30, the ten-year inflation index note was -70.5.  Just over a month later 25 bps of ‘real yield’ has been shaved off, now at negative […]

Posted on August 5, 2020 at 5:44 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Confidence

August 4, 2020 –Quiet Monday with yields edging slightly higher as Nasdaq made a new all-time high.  Ten year up 2.6 bps to 56.1.  The ten-year inflation indexed yield made a new low of negative 102.8 bps, bringing the ten-yr inflation breakeven to a new cycle high 159 bps.  ISM Mfg came in at 54.2, […]

Posted on August 4, 2020 at 6:14 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

That’s what you’re good at Butch

August 2, 2020 – Weekly comment There’s a scene in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, where they’re cornered on a sheer cliff with lawmen closing in on all sides.  Butch (Paul Newman) looks over the rocky edge down to a rushing river far below and says, “We’ll jump!”  Sundance (Robert Redford) is tensely anticipating […]

Posted on August 2, 2020 at 10:27 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Tech giants soar with Q2 GDP -32.9%

July 31, 2020 –On a day when Q2 GDP showed a historic plunge of 32.9%, and Trump suggested the election be postponed, tech giants FB, AMZN, AAPL released better than expected earnings and soared in after hours trading.  At the same time, yields are making new lows with the two-yr just under 12 bps, and […]

Posted on July 31, 2020 at 5:08 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Powell vows to do what he can as GDP expected -35%

July 30, 2020 –Powell vowed continued support for the economy at yesterday’s FOMC.  Yields at the front end pressed lower with twos down to 12.3 bps, a decline of 1.2.  Tens were unch’d at 57.7 and thirties rose 2.3 to 1.244%, providing a small bounce in the curve.  Notable buying in EDZ0 as swap lines […]

Posted on July 30, 2020 at 5:43 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

FOMC day

July 29, 2020 –In front of today’s FOMC meeting the curve flattened with many spreads making new recent lows.  Ten year yield fell 2.5 bps to 58 bps, within a few bps of all time lows.  2/10 is at its recent low of 43.8, while the red/gold euro$ pack spread fell 2.125 to a new […]

Posted on July 29, 2020 at 6:12 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Fed and Treasury. Buying and Selling

July 29, 2020 –Yields edged slightly higher yesterday with tens squeezing just above 60, up 1.8 to 60.5.  Implied vol remains blanketed, with TYU 139.5^ settling 56 or 3% vol.  Gold soared to a new high but silver outperformed.  Gold/silver ratio now 81.5, below the triple top of 82 in 2003, 84.5 in 2008 and […]

Posted on July 28, 2020 at 5:51 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

NOTE ON GOLD AND OPEN INTEREST

July 27, 2020 On June 29, I put out a tweet with a chart of the front Gold (GC) contract and aggregate open interest, suggesting that longs were blown out of the market in the global COVID-inspired margin call in March, and might have to chase the GC contract up to re-establish longs.  A friend […]

Posted on July 27, 2020 at 5:01 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Precious metals jump as USD dives

July 27.2020 –Gold and silver are exploding with the former at an all-time high $1940.  Silver is above $24/oz; it’s all-time high was near $50 in April 2011.  Bitcoin has vaulted above 10,000.  The dollar index (DXY) is at a new low for the year sub-94; hasn’t seen this level since 2018. Stocks also staging […]

Posted on July 27, 2020 at 5:32 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Party like it’s 1999

July 26, 2020 – Weekly comment “All generalizations are dangerous, even this one.” – Alexandre Dumas (b.24 July 1802) On Monday, I saw a tweet by Ed Bradford, @Fullcarry “Starting to feel a bit 1999 ish.”And I responded, “a bit”?  Gundlach has also referred to 1999.  Maybe he heard it from Bradford first. So I […]

Posted on July 26, 2020 at 5:52 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options