Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Rope-a-dope
April 16, 2021 –New all-time highs in stocks yesterday as retail sales blew past expectations, up 9.8%. China’s GDP was released at +18.3%. Good thing the Fed is keeping rates at zero and buying $120 billion in treasuries and MBS a month. –Yields collapsed yesterday as the bond market has recently absorbed high inflation and […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Coinbase or Corn
April 15, 2021 –Yields edged slightly higher yesterday but the 132 strike seems to have a gravitational effect on TY, now just back above that level at 132-04 vs a settle of 131-295 (1.632% in cash). Retail Sales is the big release today, expected +5.8% and +6.4% ex-auto and gas. Some estimates are higher due […]
In: Eurodollar Options
The $64000 Question
April 14, 2021 “The $64000 Question” was a tv game show which aired from 1955 to 1958. “The first four questions were provided by an IBM sorter, a cutting edge technology of the day. The machine was used to create the impression that questions were picked randomly, when in fact all questions were pre-selected.” (I […]
In: Eurodollar Options
We can finance it… over time
April 13, 2021 –Little reaction to three and ten year auctions, the latter of which came at 1.68% with bid to cover 2.36. Today features NFIB small business optimism, expected to rise to 98.3 from 95.8 last. CPI expected yoy Core of 1.5% from 1.3. Thirty year auction, with a small concession being built in […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Lane change
April 11, 2021 – Weekly Comment***** The snippet below is from Tyler Neville of Blockworks: Here are the speaking events for the Fed next week. This is an absolute CLOWN show. For 12 years, the Fed ignored any signs that QE was causing a gap in inequality between capital and labor. Now, all of a […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Base effects
April 9, 2021 –Yields ground to slightly lower levels yesterday with tens down 2.3 bps to 163 and TYM settling exactly at 132-00. Comments by the NY Fed’s Lori Logan about aligning the Fed’s purchases with outstanding issues caused a late bid in 20’s, as it’s now expected the Fed will announce an increase in […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Resistance FOMC high, support NFP low
April 7, 2021 -Yields fell yesterday in a continuing rejection of Friday’s employment data. Tens fell over 6 bps to 1.654%. Friday’s top tick in TYM was 131-20, now trading 131-25. Red/gold euro$ pack spread closed at a high of 182 last week, yesterday it fell over 8 bps to just under 171. Bearish news, […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Service ISM at new high
April 6, 2021 –SPX and DJIA at new record highs yesterday, not Nasdaq or R2K. Yields eased from Friday, though Service ISM at 63.7 made a new high, at least since 1998 which is as far as BBG data went back. Ten year yield was down around 0.5 bp to 1.716%. Volume in rate futures […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Can’t depend on YCC
April 4, 2021 -Weekly Comment Net changes on the week in eurodollars: Whites -2.125, Reds -10.625, Greens -19.375, Blues -20.75 and Golds -15.75. The five year was the leader on the treasury curve, up 12 bps to 97.4 (a new high), with tens up 6.2 and thirties essentially unchanged. 5/30 treasury spread is 139, the […]
In: Eurodollar Options
1983
April 2, 2021 –NFP today expected 660k with yoy earnings +4.5% –ISM Mfg released yesterday with a print of 64.7. Oh sure. It’s been higher than that. In 1983. Dude: 1983. I don’t think they even said “dude” back then. Have to wait until 1987 for Aerosmith’s Dude looks like a lady. Anyway, was 1983 anything […]
In: Eurodollar Options
