Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

Rope-a-dope

April 16, 2021 –New all-time highs in stocks yesterday as retail sales blew past expectations, up 9.8%.  China’s GDP was released at +18.3%.  Good thing the Fed is keeping rates at zero and buying $120 billion in treasuries and MBS a month.   –Yields collapsed yesterday as the bond market has recently absorbed high inflation and […]

Posted on April 16, 2021 at 5:29 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Coinbase or Corn

April 15, 2021 –Yields edged slightly higher yesterday but the 132 strike seems to have a gravitational effect on TY, now just back above that level at 132-04 vs a settle of 131-295 (1.632% in cash).  Retail Sales is the big release today, expected +5.8% and +6.4% ex-auto and gas.  Some estimates are higher due […]

Posted on April 15, 2021 at 5:12 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

The $64000 Question

April 14, 2021 “The $64000 Question” was a tv game show which aired from 1955 to 1958.  “The first four questions were provided by an IBM sorter, a cutting edge technology of the day.  The machine was used to create the impression that questions were picked randomly, when in fact all questions were pre-selected.”  (I […]

Posted on April 14, 2021 at 5:43 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

We can finance it… over time

April 13, 2021 –Little reaction to three and ten year auctions, the latter of which came at 1.68% with bid to cover 2.36.  Today features NFIB small business optimism, expected to rise to 98.3 from 95.8 last.  CPI expected yoy Core of 1.5% from 1.3.  Thirty year auction, with a small concession being built in […]

Posted on April 13, 2021 at 5:51 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Lane change

April 11, 2021 – Weekly Comment***** The snippet below is from Tyler Neville of Blockworks: Here are the speaking events for the Fed next week.  This is an absolute CLOWN show.  For 12 years, the Fed ignored any signs that QE was causing a gap in inequality between capital and labor.   Now, all of a […]

Posted on April 11, 2021 at 12:00 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Base effects

April 9, 2021 –Yields ground to slightly lower levels yesterday with tens down 2.3 bps to 163 and TYM settling exactly at 132-00.  Comments by the NY Fed’s Lori Logan about aligning the Fed’s purchases with outstanding issues caused a late bid in 20’s, as it’s now expected the Fed will announce an increase in […]

Posted on April 9, 2021 at 5:24 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Resistance FOMC high, support NFP low

April 7, 2021 -Yields fell yesterday in a continuing rejection of Friday’s employment data.  Tens fell over 6 bps to 1.654%.  Friday’s top tick in TYM was 131-20, now trading 131-25.  Red/gold euro$ pack spread closed at a high of 182 last week, yesterday it fell over 8 bps to just under 171.  Bearish news, […]

Posted on April 7, 2021 at 5:27 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Service ISM at new high

April 6, 2021 –SPX and DJIA at new record highs yesterday, not Nasdaq or R2K.  Yields eased from Friday, though Service ISM at 63.7 made a new high, at least since 1998 which is as far as BBG data went back.  Ten year yield was down around 0.5 bp to 1.716%.  Volume in rate futures […]

Posted on April 6, 2021 at 5:19 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Can’t depend on YCC

April 4, 2021 -Weekly Comment Net changes on the week in eurodollars: Whites -2.125, Reds -10.625, Greens -19.375, Blues -20.75 and Golds -15.75.  The five year was the leader on the treasury curve, up 12 bps to 97.4 (a new high), with tens up 6.2 and thirties essentially unchanged.  5/30 treasury spread is 139, the […]

Posted on April 4, 2021 at 12:15 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

1983

April 2, 2021 –NFP today expected 660k with yoy earnings +4.5% –ISM Mfg released yesterday with a print of 64.7.  Oh sure.  It’s been higher than that.  In 1983.  Dude: 1983.  I don’t think they even said “dude” back then.  Have to wait until 1987 for Aerosmith’s  Dude looks like a lady.  Anyway, was 1983 anything […]

Posted on April 1, 2021 at 5:51 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options