Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Payrolls & Powell
March 7, 2025*************** –Payrolls today expected 160k from 143 last. Unemployment rate expected 4.0%, unchanged from last. Powell speech on the Economic Outlook at 12:30. –Midcurve March SOFR options expire in one week. 0QH5 9643.75^ settled 20.25 (ref 9643.5), quite high for a one-week period, but not an easy sale given the backdrop. –Yesterday’s action […]
Global bond rout
March 6, 2025*************** –The on/off uncertainty inspired by the current administration appears to be resolving with risk assets paying the price. Stocks starting off on the back foot with ESH5 currently in the red about 66 points near 5785, down about 1.2%. Of course, less than stellar earnings also playing a part. The proximate culprit […]
‘There’ll be a little disturbance but we’re ok with that’
March 5, 2025*************** “a little disturbance” is the only thing I saw regarding the Trump speech last night, and for once, he seems to be prone to “a little” understatement. –Wild price action across markets. This morning CLJ5 is 67.08, down 1.18, right back to Nov and Dec levels from a high near 78 in […]
Weak data
March 4, 2025****************–ISM Mfg weak. 50.3 vs 50.7 expected. Prices hit a new recent high at 62.4. New Orders and Employment both sub-50 48.6 and 47.6. –Buyer early: 40k TYK 112c for 43. Settled 56 vs TYM5 111-13 (new high for the move). Cash 10y yield closed at 4.18, down 4.7 bps on the day […]
New low treasury yields for 2025, new high vol
March 3, 2025****************–Trump announces Crypto Strategic Reserve, causing bitcoin to jump 10%. Precious metals also rebounding, but in a much more muted way. GCJ +34.50 to 2883, up 1.2%. –Friday featured new low yields for this calendar year, with tens down 5.6 bps to 4.227%. 2y now just under 4% at 3.995 (-8.3 bps). PCE […]
Bessent in the Driver’s Seat?
March 2, 2025 – Weekly Comment************************************** Yields at new lows for the year. On the week, 2s dropped 19 bps and are now just under 4%. 5s down almost 23 at 4.026%, 10s down 19 at 4.227%, now 10 bps under the Fed Effective rate of 4.33%. The thirty-year fell 15.3 bps to 4.513%. A […]
Nasdaq and bitcoin more interesting than rates…
February 28, 2025*******************–So ends February. At yesterday’s close Bitcoin had fallen to its 200 day moving avg at 81963, this morning it has broken below, for now, with a low of 78225. Nasdaq-100 futures, NQH5, also just pierced the 200 DMA, 20644; traded slightly below this morning but is now slightly above. NDX and CCMP […]
Pause (in the TY rally) that refreshes
February 27, 2025*******************–New buyer of 105k TYK5 113.5c: 19 covered 110-20 with 17d. Settled 22 vs 110-28+. On Tuesday, buyer of 100k TYK5 111.5c up to 40, settled 55 yesterday. Cash yield at futures settlement was 4.249%, down 4.7 bps on the day, and now well below the SOFRRATE and EFFR of 4.33%. It becomes […]
Off topic
February 26, 2025*******************I happened upon what I thought might be an interesting post:Recession indicators are everywhere online — even if we’re not actually in onehttps://mashable.com/article/recession-indicator-meme-explained The author is Christianna Silva. The bottom of the piece outlines her credentials: Christianna Silva is a senior culture reporter covering social platforms and the creator economy, with a focus […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Large treasury option flow appears to favor upside
February 26, 2025******************* –SMCI was able to sneak their audited financials to Nasdaq – just under the wire before being delisted. Now it’s all better. At least until we see NVDA’s results this afternoon. –Yesterday saw vols pop amid some huge TY option trades. May TY calls added 125k on open interest. Flows were weighted […]
