Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

10y tip says silver has room to run

July 22, 2020 –Stocks opened stronger yesterday on the back of an EU Recovery stimulus agreement, but sold off late in the day as McConnell said he doesn’t expect Congress to pass a relief extension bill by next week.  Kicking the can with last minute deals.  Business as usual, at least in governmental affairs.  Fed […]

Posted on July 22, 2020 at 6:13 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

More

July 21, 2020 –EU deal for more stimulus was agreed upon today, sending stocks and precious metals to new highs for the move (or very close to new highs).  However, rate trading is increasingly lethargic.  To get a sense, look at the one month ranges in ED one-year calendar spreads: from Sept’21/Sept’22 at a current […]

Posted on July 21, 2020 at 5:14 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Vanity

July 18, 2020 – Weekly comment “This attracted a large youtube following, with thousands of views.  Young men were particularly attracted to his message, which promised a new order, and a rejection of the suits who ran investment funds.” I know.  It sounds a little bit like Portnoy.  But the actual quote refers to a […]

Posted on July 18, 2020 at 9:14 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Smith Wesson and me

July 17, 2020 –Once again, yields little changed on light volume with tens down 1,5 to 61.2.  The thirty year mortgage rate fell below 3% for the first time (2.98%) aiding the flow of urban dwellers to the suburbs.  In eurodollars, back calendar spreads are grinding to new recent lows.  Red/gold pack spread fell 1.75 […]

Posted on July 17, 2020 at 5:45 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Low vol

July 16, 2020 –Once again, little movement in rates with tens up 1.3 to 62.7 bps.  Euro$’s down 0.5 to 1.5 out to five years.  Attached to this note is Five Year treasury vol.  I marked FVU0 atm straddle at just 1.45 vol yesterday.  That’s around the historically low level in late 2012, after Draghi’s […]

Posted on July 16, 2020 at 5:59 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

The fight is against downside risks. Period

July 15, 2020 –Both stocks and bonds rallied yesterday with tens down 2.4 to 61.4 bps.  CPI higher than expected 0.6 with yoy Core 1.2% and NFIB was much stronger than expected at 100.6.  However, Fed officials continue to focus on downside risks.  For example, Bullard said the Fed will keep rates low for the […]

Posted on July 15, 2020 at 5:51 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Keep shoveling

July 14, 2020 –The fever finally broke in Nasdaq with NQU posting an outside day key reversal with a large range.  New all-time high, lower daily low and lower close.  These signals haven’t worked well recently, and neither ESU nor RTYU had outside days, but trade ended sloppily lower.  The catalyst might have been more COVID, with CA […]

Posted on July 14, 2020 at 5:42 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

“Earnings” season

July 13, 2020 –Friday saw a bounce in the curve with 2/10 up 2.4 bps to 48 bps, and red/gold pack spread up just over 5 to 45.25.  Stocks continue to rise and are higher this morning as earnings season kicks off.  JPM, Wells and Citi all report tomorrow.  As Nasdaq soars to new all-time […]

Posted on July 13, 2020 at 5:38 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Signals

July 12, 2020 Many large investors have complained that the market is no longer sending out reliable signals, making it impossible to invest and generate consistent returns.  More recently, attention has centered on “retail bros” upending sensible investing.  However, the market IS sending out signals.  They’re just not the ones that many (myself included) want […]

Posted on July 12, 2020 at 12:43 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

It’s the weekend

July 10, 2020 –Stocks began to retreat on the Supreme Court ruling that paved the way for release of Trump’s tax returns.  Russell led the way, Nasdaq is pretty much immune.  Yields fell, nearing all-time lows.  Tens fell 5 bps to 60.4, while twos ended at 14.9 and this morning are 14.3, a new historic […]

Posted on July 10, 2020 at 6:04 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options