Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Capability and Commitment?
June 18, 2026*********** –Hard flattener as Warsh focuses on price stability. 2y up 13 bps to 4.176%, tens up only 3.9 to 4.465% and 30y bonds were nearly unch’d at 4.92%. 2/20 new low at 29 bps, 5/30 new low at 68. On the SOFR strip, the weakest contract was SFRH7 (also now the lowest), […]
Asset Price Inflation
June 17, 2026*********** –CLQ6 is near 75/bbl this morning, helping to support bonds on the prospect of lower inflation going forward. Tens eased 4 bps yesterday to 4.426%. SOFR contracts rose 3.5 to 5.5 from reds through golds. Lowest SOFR contract SFRM7 settled 9606, +3.0 and peak SFRZ8 settled 9621.5. +5.0. The last two Fed […]
Yields ease, rate vol sinks
June 16, 2026*********** –Quiet trade in rate futures as yields continued to ease. Tens fell 2 bps to 4.465%. SOFR contracts from June’27 thru golds (5th year forward) were +3 to +3.5. SFRM7 is still the lowest near contract at 9603 or 3.97%, while the peak on the strip is U28 and Z28, both 9616.5 […]
All better
June 15, 2026*********** –July Crude is down 4.75 this morning to 80.13 on news of a deal which opens the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks and bonds have soared, although bonds are more muted in their response. August gold +121 this morning to 4344, a bounce from the protracted slide since mid-April, when the contract was […]
Current Inflation High, Forward Measures Low
June 14, 2025 – weekly comment Last CPI 4.2. Last PPI 6.5. U Mich 1yr inflation expectations 4.6 and 5-10 yrs 3.4. Ten year treasury yield 4.485, suggesting tiny, if any, real yield. PCE prices yoy 3.8 last with Core 3.3. Core has been above the Fed’s 2% target for five years. The spread between […]
Space, the final frontier
June 12, 2026*********** –Thing took off, well, like a rocket in front of the SpaceX IPO as Trump said the deal with Iran is done. Ten year note dropped 8.1 bps to 4.459% while the 2y fell 6.4 to 4.062%. New low in ten year breakeven (treasury minus tip yield) at 232 bps, back where […]
CPI day
June 10, 2026************ –CPI and 10y auction today. Yesterday featured a slightly steeper curve, with 2s -2.9 bps at 4.122% (50 over current EFFR) and tens down 2.2 to 4.526%. Lowest SOFR contract still SFRM7 which settled +4 at 9594.5 or 4.055%. CPI expected 0.5 m/m and 4.2 y/y. Last June the front CL contract […]
Worried about inflation…and shadow credit
June 9, 2026********** –Little net change in rate futures with tens up 1.6 bps to 4.548 and 30s up 2.6 to 5.024. Treasury auctions 3s today, followed by 10s and 30s Wed/Thur, with CPI tomorrow, all of which are keeping rate futures capped. News today includes trade and existing home sales. From 2015 thru 2019, […]
Peace deal retreat
June 8, 2026************ –KOSPI index has nearly tripled since September from just over 3000 to just under 9000, which occurred last week. This morning it’s down 15% from last week’s high settle (down 8.3% today). Currently 7484; May’s low print is still well below, 7054. –DXY has added slightly to Friday’s gains, now 100.15. For […]
Hit by a Ukulele
June 7, 2026 – Weekly comment************************** FREMONT, CA — Police say they’re investigating a bizarre road rage incident in Fremont that ended with one person hitting the other over the head with an otherwise peaceful musical instrument on Monday. (Fark.com) In the comments section:Your chances of being hit with a ukulele are always small, but […]
