Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
That’s what this starship is all about
October 14, 2021 “Risk is our business! That’s what this starship is all about. It’s why we’re aboard her!”-Captain Kirk –There was some risk evident on the USS Eurodollar curve yesterday. It was as if Starfleet Command had announced a rate hike that would put a stake in the heart of forward economic growth prospects. […]
In: Eurodollar Options
CPI, 30y, Minutes
October 13, 2021 –Today brings CPI, expected 5.3 yoy, with Core 4.0, both unchanged from last month. Thirty year bond auction. FOMC minutes after that. The IMF slightly downgraded global growth. “The outlook for the low-income developing country group has darkened considerably due to worsening pandemic dynamics. The downgrade also reflects more difficult near-term prospects […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Fuel crisis
October 11, 2021 –CLX1 is up 2.00/bbl this morning at 81.35, a new high. A skim of headlines is all about energy prices and crisis. Coal prices at all-time high in China as “floods swamp mine hub”. FT leads with a story about gas shortages in Europe. Lebanon was plunged into darkness as electrical grid […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Unemployment rate supports taper
October 10, 2021 – Weekly Comment The unemployment rate is back where it was in 2006-2007, having printed 4.8% on Friday. In this earlier period, U-rate fell as the Fed hiked rates every single meeting for two years from 2004 to 2006. In May 2004 the unemployment rate was 5.6%. The Fed began its tightening […]
In: Eurodollar Options
The taper report
October 8, 2021 –Going into the ‘taper’ employment report, with oil near new highs and yields at their recent extremes. NFP expected 450 to 500k, which should be adequate to guarantee the onset of taper in November. Attached is a chart of the US 5y yield, 1.02% late yesterday and printing 1.04% this morning. Tens […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Balanced
October 7, 2021 –A short-term debt limit extension helped ESZ burst out of the 4265/4360 range of October, now at 4380. Energy Sec’y Granholm suggested tapping strategic reserves, a factor in WTI pulling back from new highs. –Rate futures were relatively quiet with tens easing slightly to 1.521%. ADP data was stronger than expected at 568k, […]
In: Eurodollar Options
No one likes higher energy prices
October 6, 2021 –I saw a few morning bullet points yesterday about inflation breakevens making new recent highs in the US and Germany. The US ten-year note vs inflation-indexed note yield spread hit 245 bps yesterday, a recent high but below the May peak of 257 bps. Energy prices continue to surge with new highs […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Li Index
Oct 5, 2021 –Nasdaq fell 2.1% yesterday while the ten year yield rose 2 bps to 1.481%. Interest rate trading was quiet. WTI continues to make new highs, with CLX1 at 77.60 late in the day, up 1.72, through the high of 2018. Next big test would be the 2014 high around 107.50. BBG Commodity […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Weakness in Asian shares
October 4, 2021 –Kospi at a new low since March, down 1.6%. Nikkei down 2.5% having completely erased the early September rally which had eked out a new high for the year. ESZ had been positive Sunday evening, but is now lower on the day, perhaps on continuing Evergrande issues. China’s incursions into Taiwan airspace […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Chance – Monopoly
October 3, 2021- Weekly Comment President Xi, from September 2, “Don’t expect an easy life and be ready to struggle.” “Central banks should try their best to avoid asset purchases because in the long run they will ‘damage market functions, monetize fiscal deficits, harm central banks’ reputation, blur the boundary of monetary policy and create […]
In: Eurodollar Options
