Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Casino
October 29, 2025****************** –FOMC today, followed by earnings reports for MSFT, META, GOOGL with AAPL and AMZN Thursday. Stock index futures again pressed higher as NVDA announced deals all over the world. From @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: Nvidia announces partnership with Palantir. This Nvidia event is crushing every possible expectation by a mile. –NVDA market cap nears […]
OXI
October 28, 2025******************–Bloomberg headline: Goldman CEO Solomon Sees No ‘Systemic Crisis’ in Credit Markets. –Remove the ‘no’ and put it to better use today. –Jensen Huang to give address to GTC (GPU Tech Conference) today at noon EST. This is the biggest earnings week: MSFT, META, GOOGL on Wednesday. AAPL and AMZN Thursday. –7 yr […]
New highs for stocks (not inflationary)
October 27, 2025******************* –Bessent names 5 who are still in running for Fed Chair: Waller, Bowman, Warsh, Hassett, Rieder. I would bet Warsh or Reider. –Friday featured slightly higher rates and stocks at record highs. SOFR contracts -1.0 to -1.5 from SFRU6 to SFRU29. Ten year yield up 1.2 to 4.001% with TYZ5 113-140. The […]
Esprit de l’escalier
October 26, 2025 – Weekly comment***************************************L’esprit de l’escalier refers to the idea of the perfect retort at a cocktail party conversation coming to mind too late, when one is already descending the staircase from the party. I happen to be reading the book The Art Thief by Michael Finkel, just as the Louvre theft of Napoleonic […]
Maybe 1-day TREASURY options can be fun too!
October 24, 2025****************** –Large trade yesterday was a buy of over 100k TYX5 113.0p (expiring today) for 2 and 3. Traded when TYZ5 was around 113-155. This strike traded 290k with open interest +118k. As of this writing TYZ5 is 113-12, but CPI is released this morning. My understanding is that the data is needed […]
No gov’t data, but plenty of gov’t edicts
October 23, 2025*******************–Here was one headline yesterday: (RTRS) US considering curbs on exports to China made with US software, sources say. Contributed to equity weakness. And here’s one from this morning causing crude oil to jump: (RTRS) Trump sanctions Russian oil majors, prompting oil price rise and India jitters. This morning CLZ5 is $61.40, +2.90, up nearly 5%. […]
Sell gold and buy Argentine pesos. BRILLIANT
October 22, 2025******************–Precious metals crushed Tuesday with GCZ5 -244 late to 4115.0 (-5.6%) and SIZ5 -3.64 to 47.74.(-7.0%). Staggering moves. Stocks nearly unch’d and rates edged a little lower. –Ten year yield down 2.5 bps to 3.956%. 2/10 treasury spread has been in a long sideways range, but edged to a recent new low of […]
Illiquidity is the tipping point
October 21, 2025******************–Quote by Ben Hunt on podcast Excess Returns, talking about recent bankruptcies and the private credit landscape: “You can be insolvent forever, but you can’t be illiquid for a second.” Somehow, the payments have to be made (of course, he didn’t address how PIK fits into that model). The overarching question is, how […]
Trending
October 20, 2025 *******************–Nikkei at new high this morning, +1600 at 49185. Since the low close in April it’s up 58%. Perhaps partially due to new PM Takaichi, but other markets also strong. KOSPI, new high and up 67% since the April low. Gold and Silver futures (GCZ5 and SIZ5) had key reversals Friday: new […]
Risk Management
October 19, 2025 – Weekly Comment*************************************** I have to start this one with a disclaimer: What follows are ONLY my personal views. Nothing below should be attributed to RJ O’Brien or StoneX in any way. “When a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it’s the reputation […]
