Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category

It’s 420. Chill

April 20, 2021 –New lows in near one-year eurodollar calendars as reds and the first two greens outperformed.  A couple of examples: EDU21/EDU22 fell 1 bp to 12, having been as high as 22 in the beginning of April.  EDH22/EDH23 settled 28 down 1.5, with an early April high of 42.  While EDH23 and EDM23 […]

Posted on April 20, 2021 at 5:04 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Inflation

April 19, 2021 –On Friday, I pasted out a clip from Cass Transportation, just a couple of lines including this one: “For truckload linehaul rates, shippers paid an average of 10.1% higher than a year ago, causing that index to also reach a new all-time high.”   I don’t usually get a lot of response but […]

Posted on April 19, 2021 at 5:49 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

MADoff Market

April 18, 2021 – Weekly comment____________________________________ This week I start with the standard Federal Reserve disclaimer: …before I begin my commentary, I am obliged to remind you that the views I express are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my colleagues at RJO or within the RJO group of companies and […]

Posted on April 18, 2021 at 9:20 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Rope-a-dope

April 16, 2021 –New all-time highs in stocks yesterday as retail sales blew past expectations, up 9.8%.  China’s GDP was released at +18.3%.  Good thing the Fed is keeping rates at zero and buying $120 billion in treasuries and MBS a month.   –Yields collapsed yesterday as the bond market has recently absorbed high inflation and […]

Posted on April 16, 2021 at 5:29 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Coinbase or Corn

April 15, 2021 –Yields edged slightly higher yesterday but the 132 strike seems to have a gravitational effect on TY, now just back above that level at 132-04 vs a settle of 131-295 (1.632% in cash).  Retail Sales is the big release today, expected +5.8% and +6.4% ex-auto and gas.  Some estimates are higher due […]

Posted on April 15, 2021 at 5:12 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

The $64000 Question

April 14, 2021 “The $64000 Question” was a tv game show which aired from 1955 to 1958.  “The first four questions were provided by an IBM sorter, a cutting edge technology of the day.  The machine was used to create the impression that questions were picked randomly, when in fact all questions were pre-selected.”  (I […]

Posted on April 14, 2021 at 5:43 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

We can finance it… over time

April 13, 2021 –Little reaction to three and ten year auctions, the latter of which came at 1.68% with bid to cover 2.36.  Today features NFIB small business optimism, expected to rise to 98.3 from 95.8 last.  CPI expected yoy Core of 1.5% from 1.3.  Thirty year auction, with a small concession being built in […]

Posted on April 13, 2021 at 5:51 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Lane change

April 11, 2021 – Weekly Comment***** The snippet below is from Tyler Neville of Blockworks: Here are the speaking events for the Fed next week.  This is an absolute CLOWN show.  For 12 years, the Fed ignored any signs that QE was causing a gap in inequality between capital and labor.   Now, all of a […]

Posted on April 11, 2021 at 12:00 pm by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Base effects

April 9, 2021 –Yields ground to slightly lower levels yesterday with tens down 2.3 bps to 163 and TYM settling exactly at 132-00.  Comments by the NY Fed’s Lori Logan about aligning the Fed’s purchases with outstanding issues caused a late bid in 20’s, as it’s now expected the Fed will announce an increase in […]

Posted on April 9, 2021 at 5:24 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options

Resistance FOMC high, support NFP low

April 7, 2021 -Yields fell yesterday in a continuing rejection of Friday’s employment data.  Tens fell over 6 bps to 1.654%.  Friday’s top tick in TYM was 131-20, now trading 131-25.  Red/gold euro$ pack spread closed at a high of 182 last week, yesterday it fell over 8 bps to just under 171.  Bearish news, […]

Posted on April 7, 2021 at 5:27 am by alexmanzara · Permalink · Leave a comment
In: Eurodollar Options