Brief note with NFP expected 85-90k
June 5. 2026
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–Payrolls today expected 85-90k with an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
–Rates eased a few bps yesterday, led by the front end. 2y yield -3.7 to 4.047% while tens fell 1.8 to 4.473%. Lowest near term SOFR contract is still SFRM7 now at 9602.5, +5 on the day. Blue SOFR pack, 4th year forward, was only +1 at avg price 9610.875.
–Bitcoin is below 63k this morning, a drop of over 22% just from the May 13 price of 82240. June Nasdaq is now 30200 (Friday morn). High settle on June 2 just over 30700. A drop of 20% would be 24500-ish, which would likely result in “an orchestra of scorched cats” as Mr Jorkin from a Christmas Carol once described a financial panic. Hard to imagine, with more asset managers gating withdrawals: Especially hard to imagine given the scorching rally off the Thursday morning Broadcom inspitred lows, which saw NQM surge from 30151 to 30603.
(CNBC) Blackstone is restricting withdrawals from its flagship Blackstone Private Credit, or BCRED, fund following a spike in investor redemption requests, as fears over liquidity pressures rattled private markets.
The asset management giant capped investor withdrawals from the $79 billion nontraded business development company at 5% of shares, after redemption requests hit 10% during the second quarter.
