Gold new ATH as bitcoin falters
Sept 22, 2025
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–Bitcoin down to 112,500 this morning; on the Sept futures contract it prints -2770. However gold is making a new all-time-high with GCZ5 up $52 at 3758. Rate futures little changed after Friday’s pullback. On Friday the SOFR curve was slightly steeper with SFRZ5 -0.5 to 9634.5, Z6 -1.5 to 9699, Z7 -2.0 to 9688.5, and Z8 -3.0 to 9664.5. Slight new high in SFRZ5/Z6 one-year calendar at -64.5 (recent low on 28-Aug was -80). I marked red/gold pack spread at 54.625 (9697.75/9643.125). Up nearly 3 bps from Thursday. My opinion is that this spread should be closer to 75 bps, but the possibility of Treasury manipulation at the long end is likely tamping down on long curve trades.
–Small pullback in equities with continued issues regarding H1B visas. This from Politico on Friday:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/20/donald-trump-h1b-visas-overhaul-00574345
–‘Massive cyberattack’ (RTRS) that grounded air traffic in Europe over the weekend is also a concern.
–Heavyweight Fed speakers early this week. Miran at noon today. Bowman tomorrow at 9 EST. Powell at 12:30.
