VETERANS DAY
November 11, 2025
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Any nation that does not honor its heroes will not long endure – Abraham Lincoln
Did they get you trade your heroes for ghosts? – Pink Floyd. Wish You Were Here
–The total position in TYF6 113.5c after yesterday is around +200k calls vs -65k TYH6. Early yesterday paid 28 for 50k covered 112-15 with 30d. I believe that straddle price of 1’58 is the highest price paid so far. TYF6 113.5c settled 30 vs 112-195 (1’53 straddle). Total open interest in TYH6 is now 137k (+61.6k yesterday), obviously mostly due to this trade. Could have an impact on upcoming roll. Currently TYH6 DV01 is $68.10 vs TYZ5 $66.80, so about 2% higher duration for TYH. On price rallies the 1×1 spread will naturally be pressured, perhaps even more so due to market-makers buying futures to hedge gamma. Late in the day there was also a buyer of TYF6 111.5p, paid 22 for 25k. Atm TYF6 112.5^ settled 1’39.
–The potential re-opening of gov’t along with haphazard stimulus proposals by you-know-who put a bid in risk assets. At the time of settlement for rate futures, NQZ5 was up about 2.16% at 25710. ESZ5 +1.56% at 6859 and Dec Gold was +2.7% at 4115. Current GCZ5 Is 4146. Stocks a bit lower on CoreWeave disappointment and on China planning to curtail supply of rare-earth magnets used in US military applications.
–A couple of interesting tangential notes: A ZH article this morning says the Trump admin will lend billions to build nuclear power plants. US Sec’y of Energy Chris Wright is quoted as saying “We have significant lending authority at the loan program office.” The article notes, “…the clock is ticking for the US to catch up to China, which currently has 29 reactors under construction to America’s zero.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-admin-lend-hundreds-billions-build-nuclear-power-plants
Coincidentially, there’s this X post: ‘Nuclear Plants are Silver DEVOURERS’ Each large reactor (1600-1800 MW) requires 3-5 million ounces [of silver].
I don’t know if this is true or not, here’s the link:
–I DO know that SIZ5 is +54cents this morning at 50.85, and is chewing into the range of the big reversal day (17-Oct) where the high was 53.765. Just for fun I looked at otm SIH6 Silver calls. Not much open interest, but SIH6 80c have 712 contracts open and are around 30 cents vs 51.47 !!
–Nov SOFR midcurves expire Friday. 0QX5 9687.5 straddle settled 7.0 vs SFRZ6 9687.0. 3QX5 9662.5 straddle settled 6.5 vs 9661.5 in SFRZ8. Perhaps a bit low given potential data dump.
A follow-up on the Louvre heist.
https://apnews.com/article/louvre-fedora-man-ap-photo-c0d59847ef5f836a0c5ac49de8bff441
