The $64,000 question
December 17, 2025
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–The $64,000 Question is an American game show broadcast in primetime on CBS-TV from 1955 to 1958, which became embroiled in the 1950s quiz show scandals.
Non-farm payrolls yesterday, 64,000. Reverse the digits and get the unemployment rate of 4.6%. Time for mimosas and holiday parties.
So, yields eased a bit and 5/30 added another bp to end at a new high 113. (3.693, -3.8 bps and 4.823, -2.8 bps). Tens ended at 4.149%, down 3.1, and just about 51 bps above the current Fed Effective Rate. Plenty of carry to advance the national priority of supporting financial institutions and loading up more gov’t debt.
–Today features comments by Waller and Williams, followed by a 20y auction.
–Implied vol crushed yesterday with TYH6 112.5^ settling 1’49 from 1’56, or 4.7 down from 4.9. Seems like they’ve set prices for December 29… if all else equal vol would be 5.2 on 29-Dec, sort of where it’s been. Feb Crude Oil CLG6 also crushed to a new low of just 55.13, but this morning it has bounced, erasing that move.
–Interesting post by Melody Wright re housing: “We got our first negative median list price YOY nationally” According to Median List Price Per FRED via Realtor.
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