Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink
December 19, 2025
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–Yields eased as CPI data was lower than expected, yoy 2.7 with yoy Core 2.6% (exp 3.0%). Philly Fed Mfg -10.2 vs +3 expected. Ten year yield fell 3.3 to 4.116%. SOFR contracts had a muted rally. SFRH6 +2 at 9650.5, H7 +3 to 9693 (tied with Z5 as peak contract), H8 and H9 both +4 to 9675 and 9654. TYH6 rallied from 112-16 to 112-24, while TYH 112.5^ eased to 1’42 from 1’44. BOE cut yesterday to 3.75 from 4. ECB held at 2.0.
–BOJ hiked from 0.5 to 0.75, as expected. 10y JGB was 1.085 on Dec 30, 2024 and is at a new high for the year at 2.016%. 20y JGB is 2.97%…spread of nearly 100 bps vs about 64 bps in the US (10y vs 20y). Despite the hike, $/yen is making a new high at 157.28 as the market appears to want firmer forward tightening guidance in order for the yen to arrest its decline.
–Big opex in stocks today. Notable article in ZH says UAE may invest $100b in OpenAI, sparking a jump in Oracle this morning. Closed 180.03 current 189.20. CRWV also bid, from 67.68 to 71.30. So we’re starting the morning with a bid in NQH. Should be an interesting close.
–U Mich final Dec Consumer Sentiment expected 53.5. As has been noted on many news outlets, this measurement is near all time lows.
–Saw this interesting post by Brian Sheng on LinkedIn, with this compelling hook:
“Google pays $6.08 for 1,000 gallons of water in Arizona. Residents pay $10.80.”
I’ve copied the post below. The data center companies are reportedly buying agricultural land that comes with WATER RIGHTS and converting that land to data centers. Call me old-fashioned but I prefer food. In any case, when it comes to Household Confidence, this is the type of issue that burns, even if the price of a tank of gas declines.
“Municipalities compete to attract Big Tech. Water pricing becomes part of the package.
Residents don’t get to negotiate. They pay the posted rate.”
We ALL know how it ended for Dominic Greene in Quantum of Solace (one of top 4 James Bond movies) when he tried to corner the water rights in Bolivia.
3rd degree connection
3rd
Building the future of Air Water Infrastructure | Supplying: Homes ✅, Communities ✅, Municipalities ⏭️, Cities ⏭️ | Co-Founder & CEO @ Aquaria | Forbes 30U30
Google pays $6.08 for 1,000 gallons of water in Arizona. Residents pay $10.80. Guess why?
Three words:
AI data centers.
The Big Tech figured out that water is leverage.
So, while headlines focus on data center energy consumption, a quieter race is happening underneath: securing water before anyone realizes it’s scarce.
Here’s how it works.
1/ They’re buying land that comes with water rights.
In Utah, a developer is converting a 4,000-acre alfalfa farm into AI data centers.
The crop is changing. The water rights aren’t.
Agricultural land often includes historical water rights to groundwater aquifers. Buy the farm, inherit the water access.
2/ They negotiate deals residents never see.
Google’s Mesa, Arizona facility pays nearly 44% less per gallon than the residents living nearby.
How?
Bulk purchasing agreements. Infrastructure cost-sharing. Economic development incentives.
Municipalities compete to attract Big Tech. Water pricing becomes part of the package.
Residents don’t get to negotiate. They pay the posted rate.
3/ They hide usage behind NDAs and “trade secrets.”
In Wisconsin, Microsoft tried to classify its water consumption as proprietary information.
In Virginia, data centers use NDAs to prevent public acknowledgment of their resource demands.
Why the secrecy?
Because if communities knew the actual numbers, they’d ask harder questions about who gets priority when supply tightens.
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Big Tech learned what oil companies knew decades ago: secure the resource before you need it.
They’re doing it quietly. Through land conversions, negotiated rates, and NDAs.
And by the time communities realize what’s happening, the infrastructure dependencies are already locked in.
Traditional water systems weren’t built for this scale of competition.
When a single 100MW data center consumes the same water as 6,500 homes, and Texas alone is adding hundreds of facilities — someone loses. In this case, homeowners and residents.
We need modular, distributed water infrastructure that doesn’t force cities to choose between economic growth and residential access.
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What do you think? Should municipalities prioritize data centers or residents?
PS. I write about water infrastructure, climate resilience, and the systems shaping our future every week. Follow for more.
