Flight to… somewhere
January 14, 2026
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–Massive trades in TY options Tuesday. TYH6 settled +4 at 112-085, with cash 10y yield -1.9 bps to 4.169. Despite small price/yield change, open interest in TY rose 87k, up around 1.5%. Trades heavily weighted to new call buys (May) and a roll from long March puts into long May puts.
(However, attached chart shows that US bond vol declined, while VIX popped. Other chart at bottom is EURJPY. I guess you could say it’s… trending).
For those that want to skip details, the large new position is basically a long strangle, long TYK 114, 114.5 and 115c and long TYK 110.5p. (call delts 25, 20, 16 and put -25) Covered call player adjusting strategy? If so, a lot more behind…
May options expire 24-April and have TYM6 as underlying.
–The main bullish factor yesterday was Core CPI easing to +0.2 m/m vs +0.3 expected, with y/y 2.6 vs expected 2.7. The situation in Iran is supporting oil (Trump urges protestors to continue and says help is on the way). CLG6 settled 61.15 +1.65, having been around 56 a week ago. This morning it’s near 62, and March Silver is over $90 (+3.77) with the CME rolling out a new 9% dynamic margin.
Funny intermission break:
https://x.com/hvgoenka/status/2011089738036592932
Here are rounded open interest changes/ settles /trades BOUGHT MAY CALLS AND PUTS/SOLD MARCH PUTS ON EXIT
TYK6 114.0c 25s OI +25k
TYK6 114.5c 20s OI +25k
TYK6 115.0c 15s OI +25k (sure, I’d buy that call fly at zero too)
TY week1 Feb 117c +1/50k (new)
TYH6 110.5p 5s OI -35k
TYH6 111.0p 9s OI – 7.5k
TYK5 110.5p 25s OI +50k
SUMMARY of TY MAY opts (not in chronological order, but all from Tuesday)
First, coming into the day, TYK 114c had 30k open, but 114.5 and 115c had only a few hundred each. All of the below positions are NEW in May calls.
TYK 114.0c 25, +25k (& sold 20k TYH 111p at 10)
TYK 114.5c 19. +25k (& sold 20k TYH 111p at 10)
TYK 114.5c 20, +20k cov 112-055
TYK 115.0c 15, +25k
TYH/TYK 110.5p calendar +20 and 21 for 25k each
& notable buy SOFR call condor: SFRU6 9675/9700/9725/9750c cdr paid 6 for 50k (settled 6 vs SFRU6 9675.5).
