Iran attack fallout contained
March 2, 2026
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US/Israel attacks on Iran this weekend.
–On Sunday morning I had thought that red SOFR contracts might test old highs around 9725 on the Sunday pm opening. That was wrong, as SFRH7 and SFRM7 only made a high of 9711.5. As of this writing red SOFR contracts are marginally lower than Friday’s settles (SFRM7 settle 9706, now 9704) . On Friday, TYM6 settled 113-26. This morning’s high is 114-06, but last price is 113-23+. Oil prices are higher, with May Brent +5.40 at 78.27 and CLK1 +4.25 at 71.14. Though near contracts have exploded higher relative to deferred, a spread like CLK6/CLK7 which settled 4.50 on Friday (66.89/62.39) is around 8.10 this morning; on a generic basis it’s not through highs of the last couple of years. ESH6 put in a low of 6768.50, not quite through the low of 2026 which was 6751.50 on 6-Feb.
–In short, the market appears to feel as if fallout is contained. Near VIX contracts aren’t even above 22. Not much move in USD though I saw a clip saying that Trump ‘untied Putin’s hands’. Overall price action is contained.
–ISM Mfg today expected 51.5 from 52.6 last, but the munitions factories are going to be working overtime.
