Made it thru the weekend
March 16, 2026
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-Friday featured a slightly steeper curve after two weeks of relentless selling in the 2y and red sofr contracts. On Friday 2y fell 2.8 bps to 3.732% (2/27 low 3.38) and 10y rose 0.8 bp to 4.279% (3.94). Weekend hedges against disaster were, fortunately, mostly unneeded, leading to small reversals this monring. As of this writing stocks have levitated modestly (ESM +37 or 0.6%), WTI is down around $1, Treasuries are staging a tentative rebound off last week’s lows, April gold is back below $5000/oz (currently down 70). Once again, 10y breakeven (treasury – tip) edged to a new high of 244 bps, as long-term inflation expectations slowly grind higher.
–News today includes Empire Mfg and Industrial Production. FOMC Wednesday.
–During the time of COVID there was a boom in Recreational Vehicle sales. Just over five years later, there’s this tweet:
THE RV MARKET IS CRASHING — $239,660 WINNEBAGO NOW SELLING FOR $120,000 — A 50% WIPEOUT An RV dealer walking his lot just showed what’s happening across the RV market right now. He tours a 2024 Winnebago Vista Canyonlands National Park Foundation Edition 29NP with only 8,113 miles on it. Then he shows the original window sticker. MSRP from Winnebago: $239,660 Current price? $120,000.
We’ve already seen a lot of Commercial RE trade at significant discounts recently…maybe 5 years is the tipping point across many asset classes.
