She was SHAKin’
May 8, 2026
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–Seen on X: “Minnesota Democrats have voted UNANIMOUSLY to BLOCK a requirement to remove DEAD PEOPLE from the voter rolls, per @GrageDustin“
–Chicago politicians breathe a nervous sigh of relief. Speaking of counting and polling, the big event of the day is nonfarm Payrolls, expected 65k from 178k last, with an unchanged rate of 4.3%. In this particular case, we’ll de-emphasize the ‘death’ part of the birth/death plug factor. After all, Trump tweeted yesterday that jobs were booming, and as he said regarding the December 2025 jobs data: “They gave me some numbers. When people give me things, I post them.” : – /
Bloomberg headline: Consumers Are ‘Running Out of Money’ and Cutting Back, CEOs Warn
–So… you go to Planet Fitness for your monthly workout and, feeling exhilarated, go to Shake Shack to treat yourself:
Planet Fitness runs about $25 month, and a burger, fries and milkshake at Shake Shack is right around the same price.
Both stocks (PLNT -30% SHAK -28%) were crushed on earnings reports, which sort of fits with the CEO warning. Even McDonalds has been under heavy pressure (of course part of the reason for that is that CEO Kempczinski disdainfully took a bite of a McD burger and in a lukewarm assessment said it was good (March 6. Lower ever since). In any case, here’s his view of the economy: “He said higher-income consumers are spending normally, while lower-income shoppers are cutting back more.”
–Maybe consumers are running out of money, but not credit: March Consumer Credit up a whopping $24.8 billion vs expected $13.7b. Last time there were similar increases was in 2023. Not quite $500 million per month in interest given bank credit card rates of 21% (according to St Louis Fed). Um…what happened to the Bernie/Trump 10% cap?
–Rate futures gave away Wednesday’s rally. SFRM7 which was up 10 Wed to 9628.5 settled -7 at 9621.5. Ten year yield rose 3.8 bps to 4.39%. Slight new low in 2/10 at 47.6 bps. Another 70k 0QZ6 9750/9800cs spd sold on exit 2.5 and just under synthetically…140k in two days. TYM6 110p 9 paid 40k, settled 16 with open interest up 26k, There was also some profit taking sales in TYN 109.5p (peak open interest strike in July puts at 150k). In any case, TY futures open interest jumped 113k, which I would think are hedges/specs related to today’s data.
Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities now reflect just ~15% of the S&P 500 market cap, the lowest on record, per Augur Infinity.
CONAGRA (CAG) [I own] has a mkt cap up just under $7 billion and a (current) dividend yield of 9.75%. $7 billion is just a wiggle in Alphabet’s stock price. Do yourself a favor, buy yourself some Slim Jim’s which will give you energy to protest the new data center near you.
