A few clips
May 18, 2026
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Just a couple of clips today
Ken Griffin went home on a Friday “fairly depressed” after watching AI agents at Citadel do work that used to take teams of PhDs in finance months to complete. Done in days.
I attended the University of Arizona commencement ceremony, where Eric Schmidt @ericschmidt faced boos throughout his speech. If you don’t know how young graduates feel about AI, this post is for you. The message is clear: it reflects growing skepticism toward AI narratives coming out of Silicon Valley.
The CAPEX build continues, but the ultimate outcome is far from certain.
I drove from Chicago to Charlotte NC starting Wednesday. Almost all the billboards along the highways are for personal injury attorneys. A bit depressing. Then, every now and again are HUGE American flags waving over the highway. Camping World locations. In late 2021 CWH traded over $45 as the Covid lust for roadtrips developed. Now the stock is 6.63, and to my untrained eye, it looks like there’s massive inventory bloat on the lots (and there are a fair amount of CW locations). Road work near Charlotte is in full swing, as southern states benefit from northern migration.
July oil CLN6 hit a new high this morning, 104.37. Last price 102.22, still up 1.20.
According to BBG, “Yardeni urges Fed to drop easing bias…” and Gunlach says it’s ‘just not possible’ for Fed to cut rates. SOFR curve already reflexts this dynamic:
There is not a single contract on the strip trading at a lower yield that the 3.63 Fed Effective rate (9637). Red pack is 9603.5, -7.5. On Friday, SFRU6/U7 one-year calendar surged to a new high 25.5. up 7 on the day. (9626, -1 and 9600.5, -8). So that spread is currently priced for one hike. One month ago, on April 20, the spread was negative 23, flipping from an ease to a hike in a month…
