In 2022, they cured high prices with HIKES
June 1, 2026
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–Friday featured slightly lower yields, with tens down nearly 1 bp at 4.449%. Peak SOFR contract SFRM8 rose 1.5 to 9620.5 (still nearly 1/4% above current EFFR). Lowest near term contract is SFRM7 at 9608.5, +0.5. This one-yr calendar (M7/M8) is obviously the most inverted at -12.
–Payrolls cap the week with NFP expected +89k. Today ISM Mfg expected 53.0 from 52.7. While the employment component is still expected below the 50 mark at 48.4, Prices paid is expected 85.0. I guess the gaping chasm between these two measures is as good as any if one wants to latch onto the ‘stagflation’ thesis.
–New Kuppy piece (Praetorian Capital) highlights the trades as an employment bright spot.
https://pracap.com/
Many corporates are so desperate for workers, that they’ll subsidize education, they’ll sign agreements where students can work off their debt in the first few years of employment, they’ll literally guarantee student debts. Corporates have become desperate for trained workers [in the trades], and they don’t want the cost of education to be a hindrance. Go to the homepages of LINC and UTI, and look at all the large corporate partnerships. More importantly, the pay scales are quite attractive for first year workers. This is a macro trend that’s already inflecting as the shortage of workers accelerates—AI disruption will only accelerate it further as we need to re-skill millions of future employees.
