Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Global tightness
June 7, 2022 –RBA hiked by more than expected 50 bps to 0.85%. Yen continues to make new lows, now at 132.69 having been 115 at the beginning of March. This morning bitcoin is back under 30k. This is the second recent failure; on May 31 it rallied to 32k and looked like a breakout […]
Auctions capped by CPI on Friday
June 6, 2022 –Slightly better than expected jobs number (NFP 390k, rate 3.6%) sent yields higher and stocks lower. Tens up 3.8bps to 2.955%. SPX fell 1.6%. The curve flattened with a slight new recent low in reds to greens (2nd to 3rd year) at -27.125 (continued reaction to Brainard’s no pause in Sept). The low for […]
Fake Money
June 5, 2022 – Weekly Comment Bondo – Ed Paschke – 2004 When I was in college I took a basic art class that was being taught by Ed Paschke (needed the credit). He was becoming more acclaimed at the time. He invited the students to his studio, which was located on Howard Street, the […]
Super bad
June 6, 2022 –Rates eased a bit with tens down 1.5 bps to 2.917%. On the eurodollar strip whites ended down 1, reds +2.25, greens and blues +4.0. Although ADP was much weaker than expected, printing 128k vs 300k expected, Vice Chair Brainard said that she sees no reason for a September “pause” as Bostic […]
Front end pounded
June 2, 2022 -Yields jumped yesterday led by fives up 13 bps to 2.94%. The curve flattened with thirties up only 2.4 bps to 3.077%. On the euro$ curve the red pack closed down 17, greens -14.125, blues -11.625 and golds -8.375. ISM Mfg was solid at 56.1, though the employment component at 49.5 was […]
Quick note
June 1, 2022 –Yields ended Tuesday quite a bit higher than Friday, with tens up nearly 10 bps to 2.842% as Waller’s hawkish speech on Monday spilled over. End of the month trade was rather volatile, and indeed implied volatility firmed in treasuries on the move to higher yields. –Today’s news includes Mfg ISM, expected […]
Running in circles
May 31, 2022 –A couple of clips from Waller’s speech on Monday:No matter which measure is considered, however, headline inflation has come in above 4 percent for about a year and core inflation is not coming down enough to meet the Fed’s target anytime soon. Inflation this high affects everyone but is especially painful for lower- […]
Taking the jolt out of JOLTS
May 29, 2022 -weekly comment ********************************** Powell constantly talks about how strong the labor market is. A Fed goal is to curtail that strength. Here’s a snippet from Powell at the May press conference: “There are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed person, 11.5 million vacancies [JOLTS out on Wed] 6 million unemployed people. So we […]
The oil “wrecking ball”
May 27, 2022 –July WTI crude settled at a new high for the move at 114.09, and printed a high of 114.99 this morning. The previous high settle was March 8 at 110.83. The Adventures in Capitalism blog posed an interesting question: How will the Fed respond if oil marches much higher into the end […]
Pulling the end of hikes forward
May 26, 2022 –For a long time, June’23 has been the inflection point on the euro$ curve. It’s still the cheapest contract on the curve at a price of 9685.5, However, EDH3 settled at 9886, essentially the same price. On the SOFR curve, March and June 2023 contracts did settle at the same price […]
