Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Fixed it
May 26, 2020 –ESM at a new high for the move this morning above 3000, and just 450 away from all-time highs set in Feb. Mini-Nasdaq is up 176 at 9582; just one more day with this magnitude gain will eclipse the high settle in Feb of 9754.25. Everything is back to normal! Why, the […]
The Road to Recovery
May 24, 2020 – Weekly comment Last week we had Maria Bartiromo’s morning show streaming, and her guest was gushing that he had his best month ever. He had something to do with RVs (recreational vehicles); the company might have been RVshare.com, an Airbnb for RVs. Of course! Can’t fly. Have time off. Shelter at […]
Hong Kong autonomy dissolved. Illinois next
May 22, 2020 –The Hang Seng index fell 5.5% as China smothers Hong Kong’s autonomy. Shanghai Comp down 1.9% as well with China deciding to forgo forward guidance related to growth targets. By contrast Kospi down 1.4% and Nikkei down less than 1%. Treasuries are seeing a bid on the day of June option expiration. […]
FB worth more than JPM+BAC+WFC+GS
May 21, 2020 –For the past month ESM has been in a clearly defined range of 2755 to 2965. Yesterday the high was 2975, indicating the possibility of an upside breakout. However, a few Trump tweets targeting China were enough to push the market back into lockdown range this morning (now 2950). Buyers of yesterday’s […]
20 year auction: $20 billion
May 20, 2020 –May 20, 2020 and the treasury is auctioning $20 billion of 20 year bonds. W/I was 1.22 late yesterday. Also today Fed minutes from the April meeting will be released. –Yesterday’s QE operation was the largest of the week, a purchase of $9.5 billion of maturities under 2.5 years. Tomorrow the Fed […]
Curve springs to life as stocks surge
May 19, 2020 –The very front end of the market appears to be more stable after the stunning drop in libor over the past month or so. Three month libor was 0.3766 yesterday, comfortably settling in around 3/8%. EDM0 closed at 99.67, and the 9962.5 straddle has been consistently sold from 10 a few days […]
Gold and U of M inflation expectations
May 18, 2020 Two and five year treasury yields ended the week near historic lows at 14.7 bps and 30.7 bps respectively. The ten year ended at 64 bps, just 10 higher than the all-time low of 54 set March 9, and the 30-yr at 133, having gotten just a shade below 1% in early […]
Is silver telling us something about future inflation?
May 15, 2020 –July Silver is up another 45 cents this morning to 16.05, having been 14.94 two Fridays ago. Precious metals and bitcoin appear to be responding to unprecedented stimulus, and stocks also perked up yesterday with bank shares having potentially formed bottoms. Yields again fell yesterday, in light trade. Tens dropped 2.8 bps […]
When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
May 14, 2020 –Powell dismissed the possibility of going down the rabbit hole of negative rates saying the Fed’s “…view on negative rates has not changed.” However, the market’s view on rates still allows for the possibility of that outcome with FFH1 settling at exactly 100 and a few of the following contracts a couple […]
Negative rate insurance
May 13, 2020 –Stocks slid yesterday afternoon as LA county said the lockdown could be extended for three more months, and Druckenmiller said risk-reward for stocks is as bad as he’s ever seen. ESM fell more than 70 points to a low of 2838, extending in today’s session to 2825, but has now rebounded above […]
