Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
US ten year vs German Bund
Double down
May 31, 2019 –When criticized over an unpopular stance, Trump generally doubles down. Last night he announced tariffs on Mexico to stop illegal immigration. Stocks have reacted poorly, making new lows overnight. It’s end of month today, but portfolio rebalancing has likely already occurred. Yesterday, VP Pence warned that the US could double Chinese tariffs […]
Two views on corporate debt
May 30, 2019 –While yields fell and near eurodollar calendar spreads continued to make new lows, buying pressure subsided near the end of the day and contracts closed well off early morning highs. Tens ended the day (3:00pm mark) at 2.234%, down 2.8 bps. EDM9/EDM0 settled -59 bps, -3.75, and EDZ9/EDZ0 settled -40.5, down 1. […]
Get ready
May 29, 1973 –Rare Earth was a band from the 70’s, the first all-white band that was signed to the Motown label. They did a bunch of Temptations covers, the most famous of which was ‘Get Ready’ from 1969, but I’ve included a youtube link below from 1973. –I don’t know how many times I […]
Long treasury yield continue to sink
May 28, 2019 –Yields backed up a little on Friday following Thursday’s moves to new lows. The ten year ended the week at 2.32%, up 2.6 from Thursday. However, this morning TY and US futures are making new highs as are ultra-tens and bonds. Wait a second, did the Chinese threaten to BUY US debt? […]
Sugar crash
May 26, 2019 – Weekly comment In March of 2018, the Wall St Journal published an op-ed by Kevin Brady and Lawrence Lindsey, ‘Tax Reform is No ‘Sugar High’’. There were all sorts of analysts claiming otherwise, that such stimulus, coming at a time when unemployment was near record lows, would shortly fizzle. Indeed, there […]
Stormy
May 23, 2019 –Weakness this morning in equity futures, especially the small cap Russell (RTYM9) which is testing last week’s low, currently at 1520. Oil is also testing last week’s lows with CLN below $61/bbl. The realization of no quick resolutions to the trade impasse has settled over the markets. Treasuries are bid; with June […]
FOMC minutes. It all hinges on “transitory”
May 27, 2019 –FOMC minutes from May 1 this afternoon. Bullard spoke earlier, saying the Fed could still cut if inflation data falls short, even if growth numbers are firm. The May press conference was where Powell deemed several of the factors holding down inflation to be “transient” so it wouldn’t be surprising to see […]
No risk in corporate debt *UNLESS THERE’S A DOWNTURN
May 21, 2019 –Yields backed up modestly yesterday with tens +2 bps to 2.412% and reds through golds -2.0 to -2.5. The administrations is apparently softening some restrictions on Huawei, leading to a small bounce in risk assets. –Not much new in Clarida’s comments yesterday. He repeated that the neutral rate is low and said […]
