Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
The Sellsword
At the December 19 FOMC, Powell said: “I think that the runoff of the balance sheet has been smooth and has served its purpose. I don’t see us changing that.” He added, “We’re alert to these issues, watching them carefully. We don’t see the balance sheet runoffs as creating significant problems.” On the following Friday, […]
Chill
–Yields fell and curves flattened as Wilbur Ross threw cold water on a trade deal, the gov’t shutdown continues, and Draghi noted a shift in risks to the downside. Tens fell 4.3 bps to 2.71% with 2’s down 2.7 bps to 2.56% (2/10 at 15.0). Blues were strongest on the euro$ curve, closing up 5.75. […]
Jan 23. Kudlow rides to the rescue
–Last week’s stock market euphoria and related weakness in treasuries reversed Tuesday, with stocks lower and rate futures higher. The ten year yield fell 5 bps to 2.732% while the red euro$ pack was +7.125 (strongest part of the curve). The one-year calendar EDH9/EDH0 plunged 6 bps from +2.5 on Friday to -3.5 yesterday. Existing […]
Stability based on confidence
Jan 20, 2019 Markets continued to rebound in the month of January, primarily in response to words of encouragement from the Fed. Stocks powered to new highs for the year, as did crude oil, as did copper as did treasury yields. However, against the backdrop of strong labor conditions underpinning the domestic economy, renewed ‘risk-on’ […]
Jan 18, 2019. Finding middle ground
–This morning EDH9/EDH0 calendar spread is very nearly back to positive, having been as low as -27 at the start of January. Both contracts are now around 9731. In the past couple of months this spread has gone from PLUS to MINUS 1/4% and is now gravitating to the center. The market is back to […]
The rebound of 2019 – stalled
-Late news that Federal prosecutors are opening a criminal probe into Huawei snuffed a stock market rally. It also appears that rebounds in copper and oil have stalled, as the market weighs central bank nods to increased liquidity vs a global slowdown that shows no signs of abating. An article on ZH citing Morgan Stanley […]
Jan 16, 2019. A Simple Lapse
–If you told me early Tuesday morning prior to the open that there would be over 200k atm treasury call spreads sold and that stocks would push to new highs for January, I would not have guessed that five, ten and bond futures would close unchanged on the day. But that, of course, is exactly […]
Gov’t shutdown closes euro$ futures
–Quiet Monday featured slightly higher yields. Greens (3rd year) were the weakest part of the euro$ curve, settling -2, while the ten year rose 1 bp to 270.6. 5/30 remains firm at 53.4 bps, up 2.3 on the day, poised to make new highs. While yields edged higher, option activity mostly favored the upside with […]
Downside Risks
Jan 13, 2019 The week was dominated by the sentiment change engineered by both Powell’s appearances and the release of the FOMC minutes: the Fed can afford to be patient. Clarida’s speech on Thursday evening helped to cement the idea of a Fed on hold. Clarida noted all the solid backward-looking data, and said the […]
Jan 11. Maybe gold’s trying to tell us something…
–Once again Powell used the words ‘patient’ and ‘flexible’ to describe the Fed’s policy stance. The market is accepting that characterization with a current bias towards ease over the next couple of years. Jan’20 Fed Funds settled 9758.5 (or 2.415% vs current FedEff 2.40%), but all other contracts in 2020 are above 9760, culminating in […]
