Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Nov 6. Finally….
–Finally, the election cycle is drawing to a close. If the constant barrage of negative ads didn’t damage consumer and business confidence perhaps nothing will. I think the market has priced for a divided congress though reports yesterday circulated that Democrat control of the House was nowhere near certain. If Republicans retain both houses it’s […]
Nov 5. SUPPLY (of political advertising)
–Rate futures closed at or near new lows on Friday with the ten year yield up 7.4 bps to 321.2. Modest bounce this morning but supply comes this week starting with today’s $37 billion 3 year note, followed by 10’s and 30’s Tuesday and Wednesday…$83 billion in total raising $29 billion in new cash. This […]
Back to 1994 -Weekly Comment
November 4, 2018 Then he lights every match in an oversized pack, Lettin’ each one burn down to his Thick fingers before blowin’ and cursin’ them out. -Sheryl Crow. All I Wanna Do… from 1994 Above are a couple of charts I created, comparing 1994 to 2018. I’ll return to them in a few paragraphs. […]
November 2. Employment Report. Keeping it REAL
–Employment report today expected 3.7% with non-farms 200k and yoy Avg Hourly Earnings 3.1%. Last year’s AHE was abnormally low at 2.3, so off a low base, today’s wage number is expected to be solid. A story on ZH notes that many consumer prices have been, or on the verge of being raised, which will […]
WTI Crude
Crude oil pressing new lows. CLZ8 is through 200 day by small amount. On a rolling basis, using CL1, we’re well through 200 day. Important levels here. (this in spite of Gold +$19/oz today and silver +42 cents)
Oct 31. Will it get scary this afternoon?
–Stocks continue to bounce this morning, approaching the initial spike lows set Oct 11: 2712 in ESZ and 6908 in NQZ which should now act as resistance levels. Fed’s liquidity withdrawal continues today with the roll-off of >$22 billion in maturing treasuries. Treasury futures are lower this morning in conjunction with higher stocks. It used […]
Oct 30. Liquidity Withdrawal (Boo)
–An afternoon headline that said the administration was considering more tariffs on China if Trump-Xi talks fail sent stocks tumbling to new lows yesterday. it’s easy to conclude that a deal at the G20 at the end of November will therefore cause stocks to stabilize and rally, but even it that were to be the case, […]
Tastes Like Malort – Weekly
In a week that was trying on many levels, I couldn’t help but laugh when Dave Lutz of Jones Trading succinctly started his always informative missive with: “Tastes Like Malort”. And so, with Lutzie’s gracious permission, I decided to run with the theme, although it’s almost funnier to just leave the phrase alone. This will […]
Oct 26. Stocks at new lows as Nov treasury options expire
–AMZN and GOOGL earnings reports disappointed yesterday afternoon. with the former falling 8% after the report and Bezos rescinding the recently announced $15/hour wage. Just kidding about the last part, but this is where we see whether the ‘wealth effect’ begins to run in reverse. Stocks are at new lows for the move, though well […]
Oct 25. Bring in the bomb squad
–Pipe bombs sent to the political elite and CNN were intercepted yesterday, but they done blowed up the market real good. SPX -3.1% while Nasdaq fell 4.4%. Forward expectations of rate hikes seeped out of the market with new lows in all near ED calendar spreads. For example, EDM19/EDM20 settled at just 15.5, -4.5 on […]
