Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Self Reinforcing Tighter Conditions
Starting with a couple of charts. What do these two have to do with each other? Well, it’s pretty obvious, Italians are not buying new homes. (I’ll be here all week). Besides that, both charts, in a way, are real time reflections of financial conditions. I cite Gundlach in the XHB chart because he menitoned […]
Oct 12. Pinning hopes on China?
–ESZ (Dec mini-S&P) tested the 2748 level four times yesterday before breaking through and making new lows, apparently due to a large sell program. However, there was a strong snap-back late in the day coinciding with news that Trump and Xi will meet at the G20 in November. Yes, Kanye will be there too. That […]
Oct 11, 2018. Going Loco
–Carnage continues this morning in equity markets. ShComp -5.2%, Hang Seng -3.5%, Nikkei -3.9%, Kospi -4.4%, Dax down only 1.5% but new lows for the year. When markets have large moves like yesterday, technical guideposts like moving averages and retracement levels become much more important because all the machines that trade one product against another […]
1010. Gold priced in yuan
Gold priced in yuan. Fairly stable, but the downside bias makes it look as if China would be justified in letting CNY go through 7….
Oct 10. China’s not the only one depreciating
–Light volume Tuesday. Implied vol opened with a strong bid due to ongoing concerns with the Italian budget, but sellers quickly engaged. For example, 3EZ 9675 straddle had settled 24 on Monday, opened 24.5 bid Tuesday and was sold there soon after the open, settling at 23.5. The curve had a flatter bias in treasuries, […]
Oct 9. Rotation? Or just a spiral down?
–In another sign of global fragility, Pakistan has asked the IMF for assistance, just as the latter institution downgraded its global growth assessment (following Lagarde’s warnings last week). Italy’s budget truculence continues to spill into markets, where the 10 yr btp is now 3.68%, adding to further pressure on Italian banks. –Stocks took a tumble […]
Oct 8. Columbus Day
–Despite a cut in reserve requirements over the weekend by the PBOC, Shanghai Comp is down 3.7%. Concerns about Italy have taken the Italy Bank index down over 4% this morning. Salvini helpfully called Juncker and Moscovi enemies of europe, sending the btp/bund spread to a new high of nearly 310 bps. US stock futures are also […]
Oct 7. Creative Destruction
“The urge to destroy is also a creative urge” – Picasso (as tweeted by banksy) “We are prepared to destroy that which we have created because we believe more than any of them in the power of the picture, the poem, the prayer, or the person.” – Mishka Fyodorovich, in the novel A Gentleman in […]
Oct 5. Patel had the (Fed’s) number early
–Both the Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah are making new lows vs the USD for the move today. In the US, it’s Unemployment day. Is there any connection? –The jobs data are expected to show NFP of 185k and yoy Average Hourly Earnings of 2.8%. It’s possible that results will be skewed by Hurricane […]
Oct 4. We have BOTH kinds, country AND western
There was some degree of surprise associated with yesterday’s jump in rates. Could the bond market be getting away from the fed after Powell lavished praise on current economic performance? All yields made new highs on the year with tens up 10.3 bps to 315.7. It reminds me of an old favorite country song that starts […]
