Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
May 13. Clear Sailing Ahead
In the early part of March, prior to the March 21 FOMC meeting, 5/30 treasury spread was around 50 bps. Following that meeting it’s been in a fairly steady decline, closing at a new low Friday of just over 27 bps. We’re now one month away from the June FOMC meeting, which is fully priced […]
May 11. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
–5/30 closed at a new low of 28.5. CPI was lower than expected but the NY Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge made a new high in April, with the ‘full data set’ at 3.20 from March’s 3.15. ‘Prices only’ increased from 2.23% in March to 2.29% in April. –Once again near euro$ calendars edged to new […]
Comfortable with higher rates and higher oil
–Interest rate markets remain very quiet, with the ten year auction going off just under 3%. The short end continues to be weak, with new highs in a few near calendar spreads. For example, EDM8/EDM9 one-yr spread closed 52.0, +2.5 on the day, with EDU8/9 45.5, +2.0. Both are new high settles. The peak 3 […]
May 9. Emerging markets, stocks vs bonds
Below is chart of EEM in amber, the Emerging Mkt etf, vs EMB in white, the Emerging BOND etf. I have no idea what the composition is of each of these; I only just learned there WAS an emerging bond fund. Obviously, the Argentine bonds are exerting a downward influence in the bond etf… not […]
May 9. Possible auction drama
–Trump exits the Iran deal, oil jumps $2/bbl to new highs, and stocks rally. Hmmm. Today brings the ten year note auction against a backdrop of heightened inflation concerns, in which oil plays a major role. Today’s PPI is expected +0.3 with Core +0.2. Tomorrow’s CPI is expected to print +2.2% yoy Core. With tens […]
May 8. Consumer credit deceleration
–Late profit taking turns in both crude oil and stocks after Trump tweeted “I will be announcing my decision on the Iran Deal tomorrow [Tuesday] from the White House at 2:00 p.m.” Oil slipped back below 70 and stocks ceded a few points as well. The opening of the US Embassy in Jerusalem in one […]
May 7. Rates sit as other markets fluctuate
–Crude oil above $70/bbl (CLM 70.42, +0.70) as the fate of the Iran deal looks increasingly shaky. The dollar continues its surge with EUR 1.1925, having been as high as 1.24 in mid-April. An article on ZH citing BAML notes that S Korean export growth turned negative, a warning sign for global trade. –Not much […]
May 6, 2018. As Good As It Gets
I was skimming the news sites Saturday morning and on the Wall Street Journal’s there was a long term chart of the unemployment rate which noted the last time the rate was this low (3.9%) was Dec 2000. Let’s take a look back. From 1995 to 2000 the FF rate bounced around between 4.75 […]
May 3, 2018. Dry
–Utter lack of drama associated with both the treasury refunding and the FOMC announcement. Yields barely changed on the day. The financial press focused on Tesla’s earnings call, and Musk’s terse cut-off of inquiries. “Sorry,” Musk said, “these questions are so dry. They’re killing me.” I guess Musk wants analysts to reflect on the big […]
May 2. Refunding
–Breakout of the dollar continued with DXY and EUR through 200 day moving averages. Stocks had a nice run both before and afterAAPL’s earnings. Fifteen mins prior to cash close AAPL was 168.90, ESM 2647.00 and NQM 6666.00. As of this writing ES is 10 points higher while Nasdaq is 59 higher. July Corn also […]
