Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Jan 30…quick TY option open interest note
Yesterday the TYH 120.5 were sold in size; ended up settling 9 vs 121-26. According to prelim open int sheets, 40k added yesterday…new shorts. This is now largest TYH put open interest at 114k, outside of 122p with 145k. Not much vs 3.5 million futures but worth a mention… With TYH 121-23+ and GT10 270.7%, […]
Jan 30, 2018. Stocks start to notice bonds
–The US day started with rate futures at new lows across the board. Ten year yield hit 272.5 but came back to close 269.2. Futures contracts still closed at new lows, however there was quite a bit of put selling on the day, for example, before the floor open, a sale of 24k TYH 120.5 […]
Jan 29, 2018. America first…in a race to higher yields
–Rate futures closed with significant weakness on Friday, and the trend is continuing this morning. All rate futures at new lows even as stocks indicate a lower open. Goldman is cited this morning expressing the view that Wednesday’s FOMC may tilt to the hawkish side, with risks being balanced as opposed to “roughly balanced”. As […]
Jan 28, 2018. “Why, he stumped his TOE”
A body might stump his toe, and take poison, and fall down the well, and break his neck, and bust his brains out, and somebody come along and ask what killed him, and some numskull up and say, ‘Why, he stumped his TOE.’ Would ther’ be any sense in that? NO. And ther’ ain’t no […]
Jan 26, 2018. Unbalanced?
–Early part of Thursday’s session featured new highs in EUR, gold, crude oil. Euro made its high of 1.2537 during Draghi’s press conference as the market hoped for a stronger response to the strengthening ccy. The ten year note future made a slight new low. However, late in the day almost all markets reversed. A […]
January 25, 2018. Draghi to address EUR strength (as the US does its best to weaken USD)
–Going into today’s ECB meeting, Draghi faces the euro at a new high (with gold and oil also at new highs this morning). Though the trade-weighted rise in the euro hasn’t been as pronounced, strength in the currency could undermine recent gains and stall already low inflation, so Draghi needs to gently talk it down. […]
Jan 24, 2018. The Mnuchin Show
–What the Fed hasn’t been able to accomplish for years, namely, generate 2% inflation, Mnuchin is going to do this year, by giving the green light to currency devaluation. In Davos, Mnuchin indicated he welcomed a weaker dollar, which immediately fell to a new low. It used to be that a Treasury Sec’y could ONLY […]
Jan 23, 2018. Snow Job
–Hey here’s an idea, let’s buy some puts! Massive put spread buying yesterday in euro$’s, which was the equivalent of at least -80k futures, mostly in reds. Below I detail some of the trades, but the rise in futures open interest tells the story: Total ED open interest +75k. In reds (where almost all downside […]
Jan 22. Quick notes from Friday
–Ten year yield pushed through old high, closing 2.639, up 3 on the day and 9 on the week. Implied vol firming on the move to lower prices, providing confirmation for bearish price action. The bond yield rose 2.5 on Friday to 291.3. (Not even 300 bps over a year, when stocks have already returned […]
January 21, 2018. RED DECEMBER
As I sometimes do, I’m starting this note with a walk down the historical market lane of my youth. (Oh no, not again! Yes. Again). And it concerns millennials. Wait, don’t stop reading yet, it’s not a social study about retail buying habits, it concerns the euro$ curve. It was early 1999. Back in those […]
