Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Is it May Day or Mayday?
May Day. May 1 is “celebrated in many countries as a traditional springtime festival or as an international day honoring workers.” Mayday is “internationally recognised as an SOS distress signal.” We have a little bit of both, as labor has become more vocal in fighting for a larger wedge of the pie in terms of […]
April 29. Things are different, including the Cubs
–In the not too distant past, earnings reports like FB and AMZN back to back would have caused a surge in stocks in general. Sure, AAPL was a disappointment, but additional tailwinds should be stronger oil and commodities underpinned by a weakening dollar. Going into the end of the week, it’s not playing out that […]
April 28. US yields fall after FOMC, and fall more after BoJ inaction
–Yields fell after the FOMC meeting, with the ten year treasury -7.5 bps to 185.6, however, the Bank of Japan’s inaction is a much larger influence on prices across the board this morning. US yields have pushed even lower as the Nikkei fell 3.6% and $/yen traded in the low 108 handle, near new lows. […]
April 27. Central Bank Carrots
–FOMC today. There’s a chance that a hike will be clearly signaled for June, but I doubt it. In terms of policy divergence and central bank influence, there is no end competing and seemingly random examples. On the raw material inflation side, China stands out, as steel and iron ore have had blazing rallies due […]
Reflation trade?
A few quick and early comments this weekend. The first caveat, almost more of a reminder to myself than to you, is that trading off the current fundamental assessment of economic conditions can be problematic. There are short term perceptions and positioning that can overwhelm other, longer term considerations. (This is a much more important […]
April 22. Pay Commercial Banks to Accept Funding (that oughta do it)
–BoJ meets next week, and sparked a tumble in the yen as it appears they’re considering going deeper down the negative rate rabbit hole. Reuters – The Bank of Japan, which meets next week, has two lending facilities. One offers banks zero-interest funding for loans to companies in high-growth industries and one provides zero-interest long-term […]
April 21. Let’s Dance…put on your red shoes and dance the blues
–Yields jumped yesterday as crude oil surged to a new high for this calendar year, with other commodities also showing strength. The ten year yield rose 6.8 bps to 185. Blues (4th year) were the weakest on the Eurodollar strip, closing -9.0. Euro$ calendar spreads rose, with Dec’16/Dec’17 closing at 26.5, up 3 on the […]
April 20. Soybeans and Silver
–Here’s a headline from the FT: US Bank Revenues Fall by Most Since 2011; Wall St slump also causes profits to tumble 24%. –In contrast the Daily Shot has a chart of lending by small commercial banks (attached) which indicates strong growth. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Sort of an interesting Wall Street/Main Street juxtaposition, (as GS revenue plunged […]
April 19. Rosengren: You guys got it all wrong…
–Fairly dramatic reversal in equities Monday, as the failure of an oil output agreement in Doha caused ESM to gap down 16.5 from Friday’s settlement, only to rally back 30 handles and close with a gain of +11.75. New highs again this morning, even after NFLX and IBM traded weaker in the wake of earnings […]
Tax Day
–It’s the usual stuff this Monday morning. Two dollar swings in the price of oil on failed Doha talks, ESM falling 16 handles before fighting back, earthquakes rattling Japan and Equador, heightening concerns that CA could be next, Japanese stocks -3.4%, JPY again briefly trading below 108, Rousseff losing an impeachment vote in Brazil, Saudis […]
