Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Nov 29. A Simple Framework
Moving into the last month of the year let’s just take a step back and look at the big picture. The dollar index is near a new high, testing the high from March of this year, which is the highest in a dozen years. Commodities are at new lows, with the BBG Commodity Index 20% […]
In: Eurodollar Options
Nov 27. China down 5.5%, black Friday mark-downs
–Dull session on Wednesday, volume was light. Slight new low in 2/10 at 130 bps, with twos unch and tens -1. –This morning China stocks are -5.5%, contributing to a pullback in US index futures, and supporting a grudging bid in treasuries. Crude under pressure, with CLF near $42/bbl. –Skimmed a few articles yesterday. One […]
Nov 23. Industrial commodity smackdown
–The main feature this morning is the plunge in industrial commodities, with copper, zinc, nickel, iron ore, oil all making new lows. Copper is near 2.00 and has fallen 18% just since the high made last month. Oil is at a new low for this move and near the lows made in August (CLF 40.68, […]
Now 22. Weekly summary
Nearly everything I thought or wrote last week just after the Paris attack was wrong last week. I thought that the US would see safe have flows into 2 year notes and that German/US 2 yr spread would decline. I thought VIX would continue to move higher after the previous Friday’s strong close. I thought […]
Nov 20. Away from zero
–“In the relatively near future probably some major central banks will begin gradually moving away from near-zero interest rates,” Fischer said Thursday. What?! You mean the ECB is going even MORE negative? Sure enough, Draghi today pledged “to do what we must” to attain 2% inflation, and the German 2 yr went to nearly -40 […]
Nov 19. Back eurodollar spread collapse
–Wednesday featured little change in interest rate futures, but a spirited rally in stocks with SPZ up over 30 points. Tens ended up 1.4 bps to 2.268. The curve flattened with the red/gold eurodollar pack spread down 1.375 to 111.5. –The October FOMC minutes released yesterday revealed that the language change referencing the “next meeting” […]
Wanna see a stark picture of QE’s “success”?
Below is a graph of SPX divided by BCOM, the Bloomberg Commodity Index. (thanks for idea RW). The glorious success of central bank policies which serve to pump up paper assets relative to unimportant THINGS (like food and energy).
Nov 18. Bbg Commodity Index. Fed’s gonna hike???
–Treasury yields ended the day modestly lower with tens at 225.4 at the floor close, down 1.7 on the day. Markets are now subject to being rattled by terrorist reports, both real and false, with yesterday’s being in Germany at Hannover Stadium, which was evacuated due to reports of explosives. –I think there are other […]
Nov 16. Attack on civilization
As of Monday morning, the reaction to the horrific attacks in Paris were muted. US equities trading well above late Friday levels as of Monday morning. Not much response in EUR. Japan has relapsed into recession, another cautionary signal for the Fed as it contemplates lift off. FOMC minutes are out on Wednesday. ————————————— Below […]
Nov 13. Factors restraining inflation are transitory. Still?
–Modest rally in fixed income yesterday with green euro$ pack +2.25 and golds +4.875. There continues to be buying in EDF 9950 calls for 1.0 (January expiration, EDH6 underlying), as open interest rose 40k yesterday to 279k. Copper fell to new six year lows as commodities remain under heavy pressure. –Early in the day Dudley […]
