Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
April 15. Tim-BERRRRRR!!!!
Attached is a chart of Lumber, which has gone from 330 to 250 just this year. Like a lot of other commodities, it’s crashing and to the casual observer probably NOT indicative of a robust residential construction market. –The news this morning is mostly about China, which grew at 7% in Q1, “…its slowest pace […]
April 14. Retail Sales…the report 6 months ago in October was a doozy
–It was a quiet day on Monday in interest rates. Towards the end of day treasury prices firmed to the highs as the possibility of default by Greece begins to look likely. –Retail Sales today, expected +1.1% with Core +0.6. PPR expected +0.2 with Core +0.1. Six months ago, the Retail Sales report was released […]
April 13. Dollar strength across the board; China’s trade data crushes Aussie
–China’s March exports were reported at a decline of 14.6%, causing a sharp drop in Aussie to near new lows just above 75 cents. Imports were down 12.3%. (Remember when the deteriorating US trade data associated with surging imports was considered ‘good’ because it reflected US demand?) The World Bank also cut 2015 growth forecasts […]
China led development bank AIIB…US loses (more) global influence…
From Wikipedia: “The first news reports about the AIIB appeared in October 2013. The Chinese government has been frustrated with what it regards as the slow pace of reforms and governance, and wants greater input in global established institutions like the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank which it claims are dominated by American, […]
China Stocks….
Shanghai Comp has been on tear, has doubled since July. However, India’s Sensex has more than doubled though over a longer time frame, since Sept 2013. Hong Kong is up about 35% over the past year.
April 8. FOMC minutes and Ten Yr auction this afternoon
–Ten year auction today followed by the FOMC minutes. –After steepening the last couple of days, the curve pulled back, with 5/30 retracing back to the breakout level of 120. This area should hold, given 30 year bond auction tomorrow. –The ten year inflation indexed note is hovering just above zero, leading to a new […]
April 5. Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP est at just +0.1%
–Weak non-farm payroll data of only 126k jobs added, along with lower revisions to the previous two months, sent yields plunging on Friday. Green and blue (3rd and 4th year) euro$ packs closed up 10.625 bps. At Thursday’s floor close the ten year note yield was 190.4. From treasury futures I calculated a decline of […]
April 3. Post employment yield curve…5/30 breakout
US Treasury market is closed today but the futures markets were open…. After Employment data, with NFP up only 126k, FVM traded up 14/32 at 120-26, an equivalent decline of 8.5 in Fives. Ultra Bond traded up 1-08 to 171-26, an equivalent decline of about 4.25 bps in the 30 yr yield. I marked 5/30 […]
April 2. There’s a blood moon on the rise
Hope you got your things together. Hope you are quite prepared to die. Looks like we’re in for nasty weather. One eye is taken for an eye. –CCR Ten year yield dropped another 6.5 bps to 186.7, as stocks faltered and ISM had its fifth consecutive lower reading at 51.5. ISM hasn’t been this low […]
April 1. Here’s a good April Fool’s prank: Let’s cancel all the resting bids in the S&Ps
–Ten year yield dropped 3 bps yesterday to just over 193, as Chicago PMI data was much lower than expected at only 46.5 vs an expected level of over 50. Today, ISM is expected 52.5 vs 52.9 last, which would be the fourth consecutive month for a lower reading. ADP is expected 230k. However, the […]
