Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
May 7. RBA cuts rates. US 3 year auction
–Very quiet session Monday, though there was grudging downside follow through from Friday’s employment sell off. Red/gold euro$ pack spread settled at new high just above 158.5, up 2.625 bps on the day. Ten year note gained almost 3 bps to 1.769, with TYM 132-215 settle, though it is approaching levels that should provide strong […]
May 6. Bonds reject the highs as improvement in employment tempers bond bulls
–Massive bond sell off Friday, on NFP of 165k. Though somewhat stronger than expected, the details of the employment report were not particularly robust, for example there was a large gain in working “part time for economic reasons”. According to Peter Schiff fast food restaurants have cut previously full time workers to below 30 hours […]
May 3. NFP Friday
–Employment report today with NFP expected 140k Copper having a strong rebound this morning, up 10 cents. Spanish tens below 4%. EU lowered forecasts for growth. –German bund futures exploded to a new high yesterday above 147, as Draghi said the ECB had an open mind regarding negative deposit rates. Bund yield hit 1.16%. –US […]
May 2. Little reaction to FOMC, ECB today.
–The FOMC caused little market movement though the statement cited fiscal policy as restrictive and said QE may be either reduced or increased. I read the latter as the Fed preparing markets for a change in amount, but lean towards less QE. The WSJ and FT chose to emphasize the idea of more QE. I’m […]
April 30. As US borrowing needs fall, the Fed will taper QE
–Just a few disparate pieces of news: First, from a few days ago, Sallie Mae had to cancel a bond offering due to lack of investor interest at a 3.5% coupon. Second, Deutsche Bank raised €5B through new stock issuance. Third, the US announced that it’s paying down $35B in Apr-Jun quarter. All relating to […]
April 29. Big week ahead: FOMC, ISM, ECB and NFP
–The dollar is lower against almost everything this morning, with gold now nearly regaining everything lost on the April 15 plunge. GCM up 17 this morning to 1470. On April 12 gold closed around 1500, the day before it was around 1580, so while it’s not as though it has been a complete reversal, the […]
April 26. BoJ’s Kuroda expects to hit 2% inflation target in FY 2015
–Once again US interest rates were little changed yesterday as auctions concluded with the 7 year. Not much reaction to BoJ meeting; Kuroda expects to hit 2% inflation target beginning in fiscal year 2015 (April start). USD/JPY currently lower on the day. Perhaps it’s somewhat interesting that the BoJ expects inflation right in the same […]
April 25. Search for yield continues
–Once again quiet in the interest rate arena, though Durables yesterday were a big miss to the downside at -5.7. Today brings Jobless Claims expected 350k and 7 yr auction (following well received 5’s). –British Pound soaring this morning as UK Q1 GDP squeaked out +0.3 gain. Spain unemployment hit a new record over 27%. […]
April 24. Hacked AP newswire tweet
–Rates were nearly unchanged yesterday. In fact, it has really been pretty much of a sideways market since the last employment report on April 5, when lower than expected payrolls caused a bullish surge in tens to a close at 133-05, vs yesterday’s close of 133-025, and bonds at 148-00 vs 148-03 yesterday. I guess […]
April 23. Economic cracks widening
Good news yesterday in that yields in peripheral countries fell (Italy -16 bps to 4.05) but bad news in that yields are also edging lower in developed countries, signaling economic malaise. German ten yr at 1.23%, the low of the past 9 months, and US 10yr slipped below 1.70%. Indeed, data from yesterday and today […]
