Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Dec 5. US Rate futures report: “YES WE’RE OPEN”
–Obama says that when a deal is reached on the fiscal cliff, the economy is “poised to take off.” Yeah, like the Hindenburg. Well actually the Hindenburg was landing when it exploded, not really ‘taking off’. But you get the analogy. So our elected representatives can’t come to an agreement to stave off financial disaster, […]
Dec 4. Unbalanced, slow growth
–ISM, expected 51.5, slipped below 50 to 49.5 yesterday, which spurred a stock sell off. SPs had an outside day and closed slightly lower (though Nasdaq and Russell didn’t quite take out Friday’s lows). Australia cut rates to 3% today. –Fed’s Bullard says new QE shouldn’t be dollar for dollar with expiring twist, since new […]
Dec 3. Small business confidence waning
–PMI data in Asia generally better ex-Japan. Europe mixed but mostly better readings. New recent high in euro as Greek bond yields fall. Late Friday downgrade of ESM and ESFS by Moody’s was ignored. SP’s remain near Friday’s high despite lack of fiscal cliff progress, and despite strikes at Long Beach and LA ports creating […]
Nov 28. Student loan default rates surging
–Strong underlying bid in treasuries as end of year approaches. Beckner suggests strong support at the Fed for replacing Operation Twist, which ends in December, with further outright purchases to expand the balance sheet. (Twist leaves balance sheet unch’d as shorter maturities were sold while long end was bought). This topic will likely be decided […]
Nov 27. Capital vs Labor
–Light volume in financial futures, slightly flatter curve yesterday, red/gold fell nearly 3 bps to 117. Implied vol in interest rates continues to ease. –Today’s data includes Durables expected -0.8 from +9.9 and Consumer Confidence, expected at multi year high of 72.8. The contrast between consumer confidence/spending and other measures of economic health is brought […]
Nov 20. Bernanke speaks to Economics club today, think he’ll mention rate hikes?
–Moody’s strips France of AAA, the market yawned. It’s almost as if there was widespread suspicion that France shouldn’t have a top credit rating. Existing Home Sales rose yesterday. Is that a surprise as well? Credit standards ease and the Fed targets lower mortgage rates to make owning as inexpensive as renting… and if it […]
Nov 19. Progress on fiscal cliff
–Hint of progress from Boehner was all it took in an oversold market to pop stocks higher on Friday. Interesting note from Ben White of Politico says the fiscal cliff will certainly be averted as Republicans understand that they will be blamed for higher taxes, and therefore will work out a deal. Selling related to […]
Nov 16. Fiscal cliff ad nausem
–Stocks continue to be pressured in front of today’s fiscal cliff meeting. AAPL has lost about 1/4 of its value since September, having gone from 700 to 525, which equates to market cap loss of about $170 billion. (It started the year at 400). That’s really the danger of hanging policy objectives around the neck […]
Nov 12. Record number on food stamps
–Holiday trading today (Veteran’s Day). Interest rate futures were marginally lower Friday as stocks stabilized. –Just a few snippets since today should be quiet. Number of people on food stamps hit a new high of 47 million, about 15% of the population. (Obama got 61.7m votes). “Since October 2007, food stamp usage has increased 74.4%. […]
Nov 9. Germany concerned about France
–Continuation of yesterday’s action with new lows in the curve, weakness in equity markets. Ten year note closed 1.628, approximately 50% retrace of the July to Sept move from 1.38 to 1.87. 30 yr bond (which sailed through the auction) closed at 2.77 also halfway from July low of 245 to Sept high of 309. […]
