Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
SPX priced in spot gold…on long term support
Above is a chart of SPX in gold. In late 2008, (the period at the beginning of this chart), the nominal level of SPX was around 1375. It is now near 1325 (15-April 2011). So, one might conclude that the damage has been repaired. However, when priced in gold, SPX is still about 33% lower […]
April 15. “A mile wide and an inch deep”?
April 15. Jeff Gundlach was on CNBC yesterday and mentioned that when the first QE ended bond yields fell by 160 bps. He added (I paraphrase) “to be fair, at least part of that move was related to the European banking problems.” Interestingly as we contemplate the end to QE2, Greece and Portugal made new […]
April 14. New highs Greece and Portugal yields
Interest rate futures continued to rally yesterday as Obama gave a speech about cutting $4T from deficit. Never mind the details, he is moving more towards center and the conversation is about cutting. Just another example of removal of institutional economic support, be it through central bank tightening (China, ECB) or less gov’t spending. Upcoming […]
April 13. QE…it’s not about bonds, it’s about stocks
April 13. Crude oil slid another $4 bbl yesterday on long liquidation and other ‘risk assets’ also weakened. Five year note fell 9 bps to 2.22. Tens are back to 3.50%, down 7 bps. –Bernanke is quick to point to higher stock prices as evidence of QE success. On the other hand, he disowns the […]
April 12. ‘Risk off’ trades follow averted gov’t shutdown
April 12. Huge reversals in many commodities. Crude oil plunged almost $3, having made a higher high for the move. Goldman apparently made a call to exit long commodities, and there was reportedly a large buyer (100k) SLV July 25p just over 10 cents. (Small delta option, just interesting that some of the ETFs are […]
April 11. The Art of Contrary Thinking
Attached are 2 pages from The Art of Contrary Thinking, a book published in 1954. I happened to see a reference to it, and bought a used copy on Amazon (power of technology). As I started I found it quite dated, but the two pages (which I copied in attachment and quote below) are quite […]
April 8. US Gov’t shutdown looms
April 8. This morning silver has risen above $40 and WTI Crude (June) is up 1.10, now over $112 bbl as a US government shutdown looms. ECB raised rates as advertised, 1/4 pt. Japan suffered another smaller (7.1) earthquake; BoJ says economy under “strong downward pressure.” The US curve steepened, with red/gold pack up over […]
April 7. Fraying at the edges
Portugal finally admitted it needed a bailout just as the ECB is about to raise rates. In the US, the USDA is expanding access to the food stamp program, already at record use, as a gov’t shutdown looms. From Gonzolo Lira’s blog: “It’s not merely that the disparity between the wealthy and the rest of […]
April 6. Fed’s in a bind
New high in silver, gold, corn. CRB index is near high set in early March. SPM had an outside day and closed lower, but volume was light. Google notably down 3%. –FOMC minutes released yesterday afternoon showed some divisions, but QE2 expected to run its course through June. Inflation still expected to be transitory. –Interest […]
April 1. April fool’s day joke for bondholders…NFP > 300k
–Yesterday afternoon MN Fed’s Kocherlakota suggested the Fed may need to tighten by 50-75 bps in 2011, sending interest rate contracts immediately lower. We’re going into today’s Employment and ISM reports pretty much at the lows of the last couple of weeks, so it shouldn’t take much of a push to really cause a capitulation […]
