Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Nov 10
Nov 10. Three year note well received. Light volume day. Ten year note auctioned today. –The dollar index made a new low and gold, a new high. Dollar weakness is once again supporting dollar denominated assets and US stocks. Fed’s Sr Loan Officer Survey showed some improvement; fewer banks tightening credit. However, credit card terms […]
Nov 9. U-6 rate 17.5%. Consumer credit imploding
Consumer Credit declined by a whopping $14.8B, a continued reflection of household sector retrenchment. Employment report weak, as expected, with weekly hours still at only 33.0, and a new high in the unemployment rate of 10.2%. (U-6 rate, which includes those working part time or underemployed, hit a staggering 17.5%). –The curve again steepened to […]
Employment report
Nov 6. Employment report today with nonfarm payrolls expected -175k. Liquididty trade in full swing yesterday as stocks rebounded and interest rates edged lower. –Slight new highs in 2/10, to 265, and red/gold to 246.5, both up a couple of bps. New lows in near eurodollar calendar spreads, with EDH/EDM down 2 to 27. –There […]
Nov 5. Post FOMC/new yield curve high
Nov 5. Another Fed meeting, another promise to keep rates at zero forever. In response, the curve steepened to new high, with 2/10 out to 263, up around 8 bps. Red/gold pack spread gained an equal amount, now over 244. Absent (of course) in the FOMC statement was any mention of inflationary impulses, for example, […]
Nov 3. Australia hikes again
–From BBG: Second stimulus pkg being seriously considered by Obama staff. –Australia raised rates again, to 3.5%. –US retail gasoline prices hit high for 2009. CMBS delinquency rate hits new high in Sept at 3.94%. –ISM yesterday was much stronger than expected at 55.7. Today’s news includes Factory Orders expected +1.0%. –Put buying dominated eurodollar […]
Oct 30.
Oct 30. Q3 GDP was much better than expected at 3.5%, sparking a stock market rally which more than erased Wednesday’s losses. Bonds fell in response to better economic news. –The question now is whether the economy can find its footing as economic stimulus measures are withdrawn. The Fed just finished the last permanent open […]
Oct 29.
Stocks continued to decline Wednesday, with Nasdaq off 2.7% and SP500 -2.0%. While Norway raised rates yesterday, Russia cut today. Durable Orders were up 1% yesterday, and although the rate of decline is improving, y-o-y change was still -19.6%. New Home sales were also lower than expected. –Q3 GDP expected +2.7% (might as well go […]
Oct 28. Treasuries gain as risk assets weaken
Oct 28. Eurodollars erased Monday’s losses as confidence data was weaker than expected and stocks were generally soft. Consumer Confidence was only 47.7 vs expected 54, and State St Investor Confidence was 108.4, down from 118.1. While tech and financial companies maintain lofty stock values, a glance at a chart like US Steel (X) and […]
Oct 27. Dollar and risk assets reverse
Big reversal in EUR/USD which sparked reversals in gold, oil, stocks (risk assets in general). The curve steepened signifcantly with new recent high in red/gold pack spread (+4.5 bps) and 2/10 treasury spread which was up over 5 bps to end near 253. Ten year yield easily pushed through 3.5%; the yield chart has a […]
Oct 23. Q3 UK GDP -0.4%
Curve steepened yesterday, with red/gold pack spread up 4 bps and 2/10 treasury spread up 2+ bps. Stocks rebounded, erasing Wednesday’s losses. Today’s news includes Existing Home Sales, expected 5.35M vs 5.10 last. This morning Q3 GDP for the UK was unexpectedly negative (-0.4%), the sixth consecutive decline. –(AP) Christina Romer, chair of Econ Advisers, […]
