Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Hard for yields to ignore oil shortage + wealth effect
May 10, 2026 – weekly comment**********************************Jeff Currie of Carlyle: What happens when you run out of inventories?…Oil is the same thing. From a price perspective and a share of GDP it doesn’t matter, but you pull it out of the system, it matters. …I like to emphasize, that volumes matter. We in commodities, how do […]
She was SHAKin’
May 8, 2026************* –Seen on X: “Minnesota Democrats have voted UNANIMOUSLY to BLOCK a requirement to remove DEAD PEOPLE from the voter rolls, per @GrageDustin“ –Chicago politicians breathe a nervous sigh of relief. Speaking of counting and polling, the big event of the day is nonfarm Payrolls, expected 65k from 178k last, with an unchanged […]
They saw YOU coming…
May 7, 2006************* –This is an astonishing story a friend mentioned to me: He has family with a farm near Morris, Illinois. The Dresden nuclear power plant is in this area, about 62 miles southwest of Chicago, near the DesPlaines river. Units 2 & 3 of the Dresden power plant are over 50 years old, […]
ANOTHER thing I don’t understand: “An actor out on loan” ??
May 7, 2026**************–Oil lower, stocks to new record highs. What more is there to say? Nice bounce in rate futures yesterday with SFRM7 leading, +10 on the day to 9628.5. approaching the current EFFR of 3.64 or 9636. Tens down 6 bps to 4.353. Worth a mention is that the S&P dividend yield is at […]
If Iran settles, then oil and inflation expectations wither
May 6, 2026************** –Yields edged a bit lower Tuesday as stock indexes continued to make new all time highs. 2y down 2.6 bps to 3.936%. Tens -2.8 bps to 4.414%. SOFR contracts +1 to +3. –This theme has been covered on X, but in case you missed it: yesterday the SOX index closed 51% above […]
Relentless pressure on SFRM7
May 5, 2026************* –One year forward SFRM7 made a new low Monday at 9611.5 and settled 9615.5 (-11 on the day). From the Feb 27 settle of 9706 this contract has now fallen 90.5 bps! And it is near the lowest contract on the strip, an honor now held by SFRH7 at 9613.0 or 3.87% […]
Long Shots
May 3, 2026 – Weekly comment********************************** …the last shall be first. Amazing Kentucky Derby run by 23 to 1 long shot Golden Tempo and jockey Jose Ortiz. From dead last, at least 18 lengths behind the leader at the half-mile mark, Golden Tempo turned on the burners but still had to fight through the pack. […]
Inflation signal from ISM?
May 1, 2026*************–May Day. I like Commandment in the Derby. –News today includes ISM Mfg expected 53.2 from 52.7. Prices Paid was a new high 78.3 last and is expected 80.0, which would be the highest since the aftermath of the COVID cash giveaway in 2022, High for June 2021 was 92.1. 10y breakeven edged […]
Big Fights loom aside from Iran: Fed, Data Centers, Private Credit
April 30, 2026*************** –I missed the afternoon price action so just a couple of brief comments. First, Powell staying on as Governor and the 3 dissents leaning against easing bias are a clear Trump snub. From the statement: “Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the […]
Treasury puts for FOMC and tech earnings
April 29, 2026*************** –Dominant factors on Tuesday were OpenAI warnings that sales might not grow fast enough to meet costs. (And Musk now suing OpenAI) Additionally, CLM6 (WTI) rose above $100/bbl. and the sentiment in bonds has shifted more towards the idea of inflation rather than slower growth as a result. CLM6 settled 99.93, new […]
