Ease kicked down the road
May 6, 2025
*************
–Front end SOFR contracts still adjusting to the idea of eases being pushed further forward. SFRM5 settled 9578 down 2 on the day and U5 settled 9612, down 3.5. SFRM5/U calendar, which was as inverted as much as -45 on Wed, April 30, just before NFP (9691.5/9636.5) settled yesterday at -34 (9578/9612). So SFRU5 has dumped 24.5 bps, approximately one ease, in the past three sessions.
–Long end yields threatened to push higher, but ended with only slightly higher levels. Tens +1.9 bps to 4.341% in front of todays auction. Thirties rose 3.3 bps to 4.826, auction is on Thursday. Gold is +62.7 this morning at 3385. On May 1, the low settle of the pullback, it was 3222, a gain 5% from Thursday’s settle to this writing.
–PLTR down about 9% this morning after yesterday’s earnings report. Equity futures lower. Trade number today expected -129b.
