Li Index
Oct 5, 2021
–Nasdaq fell 2.1% yesterday while the ten year yield rose 2 bps to 1.481%. Interest rate trading was quiet. WTI continues to make new highs, with CLX1 at 77.60 late in the day, up 1.72, through the high of 2018. Next big test would be the 2014 high around 107.50. BBG Commodity index (BCOM) closed at the highest since 2015.
–Contagion is seeping through China’s property sector. Fantasia, a property developer, was unable to make a payment and Sinic Holdings has been downgraded by Fitch. If only there had been some clue, like the 2018 videos of China’s ghost cities. The attached chart and description concerns the Li index: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, rather than using ‘official’ data to get a sense of the economy, preferred to use three easily measurable inputs: Electricity usage, bank lending, and rail freight. The index has recently fallen sharply to 5.87, in the era of struggles and common prosperity. Taiwan provides a useful diversion.
–On a day when Citadel’s Ken Griffin compared Chicago violence to Afghanistan “on a good day”, Mayor Lightfoot finally used the word “accountability” (according to the Tribune headline).
Lack of charges in fatal West Side shootout leads Mayor Lightfoot to criticize prosecutor Kim Foxx: ‘We can’t live in a world where there is no accountability’
The case in question involves a west side “wild west” shootout. From the SunTimes, “The police report acknowledged that victims of the shootout (more than 70 shell casings were found) weren’t cooperating [of course, some were dead]… But the report also framed the state’s attorney’s office’s decision to decline charges in a different light. ‘Mutual combatants was cited as the chief reason for the rejection.’ Mutual combat is a legal term used to define a fight or struggle that two parties willingly engage in.”
Maybe the next ‘ghost city’ video will feature Chicago’s empty office buildings as companies like Citadel leave.
