Sept 28. I’d rather talk about HH (Hugh Hefner) than FF (Fed Funds), but….

–Yields jumped Wednesday morning on tax cut proposals with tens up 8 bps to 230.9.  While it feels like the start of a new move to higher rates, there are a few caveats.  First, as indicated by the chart below, the current 10y yield is fully 30 bps lower than it was at the Dec and March hikes, and only about 18 bps higher than the yield at the June hike.  (I suppose one could interpret that in a couple of ways: either there’s plenty of room for yields to run to the upside given the cutback of Fed’s reinvestment, or that FF hikes are likely to choke future growth).

–I would also note that rather than vol jumping up due to panicked buys of puts, the early trade was comprised of 50k 0EZ 9800p sold at 3.0 and 60k TYX 124.5p sold at 5 down to 4 ref 125-115 up to 125-145.  The point: very little evidence of fear in terms of reaching for puts.  Early 50k buy 2EZ 9800/9787/9775/9762p condor for 4.0.  Both the 0EZ put sale and 2EZ condor were new open interest…taken together suggest modest downside in the context of a slightly steeper dollar curve.  TYX puts new as well.

–On the long end there was a notable steepener trade, block of 52449 TYZ7 125-16+ vs 14244 WNZ7 165-11.  This trade is a bit over $4m per bp.

–As a small exercise I marked ED contracts vs FF contracts as a proxy for lib-ois.  EDZ7 to FFF8 is 16.5 mid mkt.  EDH8 to FFJ8 is 19.5 mid and EDM8/FFN8 is 21.0.  Current Fed effective is 1.16.  On one hike, it goes to 1.41 (or 98.59) and then to 1.66 (or 98.34) and on a third hike to 1.91 (or 98.09).  If we use a rough proxy of 16 to 21 bps for lib-ois then ED contracts would price to 9838 to 9843 (for December) then 9813 to 9818 on hike #2, then to 9788 to 9793 on hike #3.  How might one target a 2nd hike by March? Buy EDH8 9825/9812p 1×2 and sell Jan 9825p for 0.25 (traded about 30k yesterday).   And a third hike in June? Buy EDM8 9800/9787ps (traded just below 1.5 20k yesterday).

–What is notably absent is the idea of an overshoot.  Yes…once upon a time it used to happen, but now it’s gone away like Hugh Hefner.

******************************************************

Fed hike 14-Dec 2016, Ten year high yield 2.60% the next day.

Fed hike 15-March 2017, Ten year high yield 2.63 on 13-March.

Fed hike 14-June 2017, Ten year yield 2.13%

Current 2.31%…need to go up 30 bps just to get to the level from 3 hikes ago.  Chart below is ten year treasury yield and recent Fed hike history.

Sept 27. Bond bubble meets tax reform pin?

–Those that consider the bond market in a bubble are seeing vindication this morning as yields jump, with TYZ at a new low 125-14 and the ten year nearing 2.30% (up nearly 7 bps from yesterday). With the health care vote tabled, attention has shifted to a rapid implementation of tax reform. According to Bloomberg, “The rate on corporations would be set at 20 percent, down from the current 35 percent, and businesses would be allowed to immediately write off their capital spending for at least five years.” The eurodollar curve is slightly steeper from rock bottom levels. For example, yesterday the red/gold pack spread settled at a new low of just over 40 bps and is currently around 45.

–There was heavy trade yesterday in some of the one-year calendars. For example, EDU18/EDU19 traded over 50k and settled 19. EDZ18/Z19 traded 40k and settled 16.0. What has been surprising is steepening of near spreads relative to the back end of the curve. For example, EDZ17/Z18 is 33.5 and Z18/Z19 only 16, so that butterfly is 17.5. Certainly, gov’t spending related to storm rebuilding will give the economy a short term boost (reason for near spreads to widen?), but the longer term impact of increased capital spending and increased bond issuance while the Fed trims reinvestment makes the extreme flatness along the back end of the curve puzzling at best. There isn’t even one hike per year being priced. One might even call it a mystery (as Yellen is fond of phrasing the current lack of inflation). However, that mystery may end up being solved in dramatic fashion. Some of the curve shape will depend on how a new Fed responds to a change in fiscal policy. However, back spreads appear too cheap if a tax plan as outlined can pass.

–Quick anecdote about price pressures. A friend whose family is involved in agribusiness and owns a grain elevator says that every year they construct a new bin. For the previous two years, price increases were about 5%. This year it was an 8% increase. Oh, you might say that’s just a one-off story and unimportant. But it’s at least as important as this snippet from Brainard yesterday regarding labor market wage disparity: “Another possibility that is increasingly in focus is that physical disabilities, as well as sharp increase in opioid use, have increasingly inhibited some individuals from participating in the labor force.” I think I’ll focus on price pressures related to basic needs…

Sept 26. Fedspeak

–Big day for Fed speakers. Mester (remove accommodation) and Evans (not so sure) cancel each other out. Brainard is next; in her last speech she was concerned about low inflation but cited the dollar as an influence, and talked about trying to raise inflation expectations. Then Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, followed by Yellen at 12:45. Should be a little something for everyone.

–Yesterday’s action was dominated by weakness in equities, with FAANG stocks especially soft. Tensions with N Korea continue to simmer. (China says NK issue is getting too dangerous). One large trade in the VIX was the roll of Oct 15/25 c 1×2 vs 12p into the same position in December in size of 260k. Obviously, being short October 12 puts rolling toward expiration could be problematic…bought himself a little more time.

–In rates, yields fell, with tens down 4.5 bps to 221.6. The curve remains flat, with 2/10 and 5/30 pinned near recent lows of 80 and 92. In euro$’s, the red/gold pack spread made a new low at just 41.75 bps, -2.75 on the day. When Fed members suggest that balance sheet adjustment will be boring, the market is all in. Consider EDH21 contract at 97.88. Three and a half years away (what the Fed would call “longer term”) and the yield is just 2.12%. No term premium there. No inflation premium.

Sept 25. Distract and Obfuscate

–Fed speakers today Dudley at 8:30, Evans at 12:40 and Kashkari after market hours. The first two have Q&A, so while Dudley’s prepared remarks on the workforce may not have any policy implications, perhaps he will get an interesting question. Yellen speaks tomorrow.

–The eurodollar curve flattened to a slight new low Friday, though EDZ7/EDZ8 (the front one-yr calendar) closed at a new recent high of 34.5. Given that the December FOMC in on the 13th, prior to the expiration of the December ED contract, that spread seems high relative to others. For example, FFF18/FFF19 is barely one month forward, and closed at 29. Red/gold pack spread closed at a new low of just 44.5.

–MNI reported Friday that according to new accounting guidelines by the Gov’t Accounting Standards Board that start in fiscal 2018, gov’t entities will have to record on their balance sheet the full cost of healthcare promised to public employees once they retire. No wonder R* is being marked down. If we’re going to start marking forward liabilities to market, it’s got a chance to get “HEY…did you see the big NEW CONTROVERSY on NFL players kneeling during the anthem?” Yeah, let’s talk about that instead.

–Buyer of 50k EDM8 9825/9812p spd Friday for just under 4.0. Settled 4.0 vs 9831.5. Looks like an adjustment trade on some old butterflies. Taken on its own, it suggests two hikes prior to the June expiration for the top strike to go in the money. June FOMC is 13 June, EDM8 expires on 18 June.

We All Know it

“Well, I think he is pretty accurate when he opines on Europe, but…like all of us in the business these days… he just keeps saying the same thing.  There are only 3 or 4 big themes and everybody knows them.”

The above comment came from a friend; I had mentioned that I didn’t think a particular analyst was all that insightful.  My friend’s reply is distressingly true.  We all know how the growth of central bank balance sheets has exploded and supported financial assets.  We know that volatility has been smothered across products.   We know that CBs are struggling (for some reason) to bring inflation up to the magical 2% target.  And we know it’s all tied up in the same animal, the government.  This analogy is best represented by Homer Simpson, addressing his daughter Lisa’s switch to becoming a vegetarian:

“Now wait a minute honey, are you saying you’re never going to eat another animal again?  What about bacon?” “No.” “Ham?” “No!” “Pork chops?”  “Dad, those all come from the SAME animal!”  Homer (chuckling and mystically waving his hands in the air) “Oh yeah right Lisa…a wonderful, MAGICAL animal!”

Now wait a minute Janet, are you saying the Fed created all this economic support, but now no more buying AND a cutback in reinvestment?  What about Treasuries? What about mortgages?  What about (*waves hands in air*) the plunge protection team?

So the Fed announced the onset of balance sheet reduction, and signaled a hike in December while lowering the long term dots in acknowledgment of a lower neutral rate than previously thought (except that the market has been below the dots the entire time).  On the week, rates rose mechanistically, and the curve flattened.  Tens were up another 6 bps to 2.26%.  In terms of the curve, 2/10 at 82 and 5/30 at 92, are on top of the lows of 2016, which were in turn the lowest since 2007.  The back end of the Eurodollar curve is extremely flat with reds (2^nd year forward) to golds (5^th year) at only 44.5 bps.  By the way, at 2.26%, the ten year yield is exactly where it was in early December of 2015, just before this Fed’s ‘tightening cycle’ began.  Sorry.  We all know it.

The chart below shows the history for the last 20 years of Fed Funds and the red/gold pack spread.  The curve is now nearly as flat as it was after the last hiking campaign in 2004 to 2006.  Except in this particular episode, the current Fed effective of 1.16% is just a few bps above the STARTING point of the last hike cycle, which began at 1%, was 1.5% two meetings later, and topped at 5.25%.  We all know it.  To paraphrase Irving Fisher, we’re in a permanently safe valley of low rates and low volatility.

Taken with the notion that yields will forever remain low, I am adding the next chart, just as a curiosity.  It shows the explosion of share price in the Swiss National Bank.  I overlaid the price of bitcoin just for fun.  From an article in the FT [link below] “A share in the SNB is like a perpetual bond with a fixed coupon.  At a price of SFr 3000 the yield is only about 0.5%, but that still compares favorably with the yield on a 10 yr Swiss gov’t bond, currently about minus 0.15%.  “If you treat them as bond substitutes, then there is quite some premium.”  Hmmm.  I think there’s more to it than that…  Is this a case of fitting the narrative into the framework of themes that we all know?

Sometimes, our policy issues can be addressed with a bit of tweaking.  For example, the NY Fed finally released its new Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG), which “provides a measure of … the long-run (or persistent) component of aggregate inflation.”  Now, according to UIG [link attached] the ‘full data set’ rose from 2.64% in July to 2.74% in August, and the ‘prices only’ measure from 2.09% in July to 2.17% in August.  Both UIG measures “displayed a rise in trend inflation.”  So, the Fed needs 2% inflation?  Problem SOLVED.

We’ll get a new Fed board next year, and believe me, the neutral level will also find its way higher.  Through “research.”

Continuing with the theme of government data, I created the following table from last week’s Fed release Z.1.  The typical headline coming from this report (and this time was no different) is YAY!  US Household Net Worth was up again! (In Q2 2017, +$1.7T, due to stocks and real estate).  However, the table below shows outstanding debt levels of the three sectors of the economy, Households (top), Business including Corporate (middle), and Gov’t (third down) with the sum at the bottom.

I don’t think I have quite seen the data presented in this way.  It shows the debt of the Federal Gov’t at $16.05 trillion.  But wait, we’ve heard that gov’t debt is just over $20T. (I think they net out the balance sheet of the Fed).  In any event, this table indicates just how much the Fed’l Gov’t has grown as a percent of total debt.  As we were all told, the gov’t shifted private debts onto its own balance sheet in the aftermath of the crisis.  This table is a reflection of that.  From 2002 to now, HH debt has grown 1.74x, from 40% of the total debt to just 31%.  (We euphemistically call that deleveraging).  Business has grown 1.98x from 32.7% of the total to 29%.  But the Federal Gov’t has grown 3.63x from 20.6% of total debt to 33.5%!  Federal gov’t outlays as a % of GDP are just over 20%.  This is, as we and everyone else likes to say, unsustainable.

We used to hear about the government “crowding out” the private sector for scarce capital.  Now capital doesn’t seem to be scarce at all.  In a way, this table is supportive of the idea of corporates being tight to treasuries; it’s the Federal Gov’t that is over leveraged.  So in a way, corporate assets, stocks included, are relatively better.  As the economist in the FT might say, “there is quite some premium.”

We’re likely to get a blow up of the federal deficit, and with it of course, more bond issuance.  Partially related to storm rebuilding.  Partially related to the idea that any tax deal is NOT going to be revenue neutral, because the savings from healthcare reform have gone up like a puff of smoke.  So who’s going to buy this stuff?  Not the Chinese.  With trade tensions increasing they’re out of the vendor financing business.  Not the Fed.  They are on a diet.  Maybe Japan.  They don’t care what they own as long as it doesn’t move their currency higher.

Eventually, it’s going to be the Fed again.  But before that, I suspect Mnuchin’s treasury is going to find out sometime in 2018 that capital is sort of scarce again.  And the administration’s natural response is going to be to go where the money is.  Big tech.  We can squeeze it out of them.  It’s not going to be pretty and it’s going to make the composition of the next Federal Reserve Board very important.

(Rtrs) The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, a gauge of the degree to which investors expect share prices to fluctuate, has averaged 11.4 this year. That is lower than for any comparable period over its nearly three-decade history.

We all know it.  And we know it’s going to change.

Note: Yellen speaks again Tuesday. “Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals” 59th National Association for Business Economics Meeting in Cleveland, Ohio.

Sept 20. FOMC day (Warsh bought yesterday’s close)

–FOMC today.  Last meeting for Fischer and likely one of the last for Yellen.  Widely expected to begin balance sheet reduction.

–This is a quote from Kevin Warsh speech at the BIS in August:  “We should take note of a simple, troubling fact: from the beginning of 2008 to the present, more than half of the increase in the value of the S&P 500 occurred on the day of Federal Open Market Committee decisions.” Hey dude, it’s only troubling if you’re short.

–Yields little changed yesterday though longer end of the curve trades under pressure.  However, there’s no real fear projected in implied vol; still pinned to the mat with USZ at just 7.3 vol.  TYV (Oct) 126 straddle holding up pretty well at 29/64 settle ref 125-31+.  Expires Friday.  I would note new buying in TYV 126.25 calls.  Settled 8, open interest up 20k.  Both FV and TY futures saw open interest declines of 35k, which I would interpret as simple lightening of risk in front of Fed.

–Interesting post on ZH (citing Goldman) noting that:

These are bonds mostly secured by retail malls.  No real surprise there.  I only make note of it because the Fed has indicated concern about frothiness of Commercial Real Estate.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/meanwhile-next-big-short-quietly-blowing

–Devastating earthquake in Mexico yesterday.  here is an interesting link showing all the earthquakes.

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#%7B%22autoUpdate%22%3A%5B%22autoUpdate%22%5D%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22grayscale%22%2C%22feed%22%3A%221day_m25%22%2C%22listFormat%22%3A%22default%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B-88.54857855448348%2C-499.92187499999994%5D%2C%5B88.53065914671623%2C331.17187499999994%5D%5D%2C%22overlays%22%3A%5B%22plates%22%5D%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3A%5B%22restrictListToMap%22%5D%2C%22search%22%3Anull%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22timezone%22%3A%22utc%22%2C%22viewModes%22%3A%5B%22list%22%2C%22map%22%5D%2C%22event%22%3Anull%7D

Sept 19. Turnaround Tuesday

–Large trades Monday were primarily TY put buyers.  TYX 124p 6 paid 6k cov 126-075 (6s vs 126-02+).  Just prior to that on block TYZ 124p 12 paid 13k cov 02+ with 11 delta  (13s).  Later blocks followed, 19 paid for 23k TYZ 124.5 p cov 03 and 03+ (18s).  These trades appear to be hedges for the FOMC; open interest up 13.6k and 18k in Dec puts.  Straddles didn’t budge.  Indeed I marked USZ 154 straddle at just 7.3 vol, a new recent low (3’56s).  The market does not seem to fear a move to higher rates, with the ten year yield closing at 223, up 2.8 bps on the day, right at a resistance trendline in terms of yield, as shown on attached chart.  Today has all the makings for a ‘turnaround Tuesday’.  With hedges already set, selling pressure should abate (temporarily).  An article on Bloomberg today suggests that balance sheet adjustment may be bullish for treasuries, in that yields tended to rise during QE, so the opposite may occur with an unwind. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/wall-street-s-bond-gurus-have-it-all-wrong-as-qe-unwind-looms

–However, the larger trend appears to favor a move to higher rates.

–The eurodollar strip had a parallel shift lower, with EDZ7 to EDH22 down 2 to 2.5. Odds for a rate hike at the December meeting are now essentially 50/50 with Jan’18 FF contract settling at 9872.5. Ten year note to inflation indexed TIP edged to a new high of 188.

–News today includes Housing Starts 1174k.  Import and Export Prices.

Sept 18. Return to a Reflation Trade

Let’s start with a couple of changes on the week.  The five year US treasury yield jumped 18.2 bps to 1.82%.  The ten year yield was up 13.6 bps to 2.201% (the move was even larger given intraday lows on Sept 8; tens hit 2.015%).  January 2018 Fed Funds fell from 9878.5 to 9872.5.  That 6 bp move represents an increase in odds for a hike by the end of the year from 25% to 50%.  Eurodollar one-year calendar spreads also rose, with the peak one-yr spread EDZ17 to EDZ18 now at 30 bps, a gain of 8.5 on the week.  SPX closed at a new high just above 2500, and the dollar index, at 91.84 remains close to the low of the year.

This week brings the FOMC meeting with a press conference and SEP, Summary of Economic Projections.  It’s widely expected that the Fed will announce the onset of the Balance Sheet Adjustment plan, details of which were laid out at the June meeting.*  Given recent Fed speeches, notably Brainard’s, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the longer term ‘dots’ revised lower, as evidence mounts that the neutral rate has declined.  As of the June meeting, the end of year projected FF rate for 2017 was 1.4%, 2018 2.1%, 2019 2.9% and longer term 3.0%.  If the longer term dots are revised lower, there will likely be some reaction in the curve, though I suspect only temporary.  The fact is, even though the Fed controls FF’s, their own members’ forecasts have been miserable.  According to the year-end dots as published, EDZ17/EDZ18 spread should be more like 70 bps (the difference between 1.4 to 2.1 as projected).  The actual spread is 30.  EDZ18/EDZ19 is just 18, as opposed to the difference in year-end dots of 80 bps.  Nothing really new here, as the market has pretty much ignored the dots for a long time.  What is new is the Bank of England’s shift to a more hawkish outlook, following close on the heels of a surprise hike by the Bank of Canada.  There is a potential change in Central Bank sentiment occurring.

Instead of trying to decipher macroeconomic nuances and central bank communications, I’m just going to focus on a couple of charts.  Below is a chart of the Russell 2000 small cap index, overlaid with the NFIB small business optimism index.  These two track pretty well.  After the election of Trump, small business sentiment skyrocketed.  The Russell also took another leg up.  What’s somewhat interesting is that in spite of a decline in Trump’s approval ratings, small business confidence (as reflected by both NFIB and Russell) has never wavered.  From the last report, NFIB’s Chief Economist Dunkelberg said, “Small firms are now making long-term investments in new machines, equipment, facilities, and technology.  That’s a real sign of strength, and it will be interesting to see if the August result becomes a trend.”

In other markets and indicators, the Trump surge, based on expectations of relaxed regulations along with health and tax reforms, completely fizzled out.  For example, the dollar index started 2017 at a new high, but gave away the post-election rally and more, and is now near a new low.  Multi-year lows.

Same thing with US rates.  In March the ten year treasury hit 2.62%, but this month ticked 201.5, as noted above.  The yield curve paints the same picture.  As a specific example, below I have included a chart of ED5 to ED9, the fifth quarterly euro$ contract vs the ninth.  Given that EDU17 expires Monday, 18^th Sept, this spread will now be represented by EDZ18/EDZ19.

Euro$ 5th to 9th qrtrly spread

The spread itself is in the bottom panel of the chart.  In the post-election surge, the spread topped at 54, having been in the upper teens in early November 2016.  It took a round-trip this year, having gotten down to 16 in the week before last.  This coming week, 5^th to 9^th will become EDZ18/Z19 which settled at just 18 bps on Friday, having bottomed at 14.

What we have seen over the past week is 1) a jump in treasury yields,  2) new highs in stocks, 3) further gains in market measures of forward inflation – for example, ten year tip/treasury breakeven ended at a new recent high over 186 bps, 4) a move by Trump to work with Democrats, 5) an admission by Speaker Ryan that tax reform may not be ‘revenue neutral’, 6) expectations of stimulus spending related to storms, 7) continued weakness in the dollar, 8) a related increase in commodity prices with WTI up 2.41 on the week near $50/bbl, 9) a relaxation of rules which will make it easier to short the Chinese yuan, which indeed weakened in response, 10) a forward push in the rate hike timetable by the BoE.

By the way, last week I said that “according the Fed Funds futures curve, the first fully priced rate hike does not show up until April of 2019…that’s nineteen months! “  That timetable has also been pushed forward, with the first fully priced hike now the July 2018 contract at 9859.5, ten months away.  The Fed isn’t pushing the timetable up, the market is.  It’s worth noting that by this time next year there will likely be a new Fed chair, with new Governors.

The point of the above discussion is simply this:  The Eurodollar curve has probably flattened way too much since Q1.  Along with the ten year yield (which declined as the Fed hiked), back month Eurodollar contracts only went higher as the Fed raised in Dec, March and June.  Again, in looking at the chart above of 5^th to 9^th ED, the upper panel shows the prices of the two contracts.  The lower (amber) line is, of course, the first green.  On the hike last December this contract traded 9780.  Now, with an additional TWO hikes it’s 9807 (EDZ19).

For this week’s FOMC we expect no hike and the start of QE’s normalization.  On a risk/reward basis, buying reds and selling deferred contracts looks attractive for a substantial move.  The risk is that a new Fed Chairman might be more prone to quickly raising FF’s, thereby flattening the curve, though I would think the Trump administration will try to focus on soft-money candidates.

Sept 14. Increase in treasury supply to eventually impact rates

–Treasuries remain heavy with tens +2.5 bps to 219.4, more than 18 bps higher than Friday’s low.  Often there has been a rally after the treasury completes the third leg of its auction schedule… not so yesterday, even though PPI was slightly softer than expected.  Today’s news includes CPI, expected +0.3 with Core +0.2 and yoy Core +1.6%.   Jobless Claims 300k, but irrelevant in the wake of the storms.  China’s data today weaker than forecast.  (RTRS) “Fixed-asset investment, a key growth driver for the world’s second-largest economy, grew 7.8 percent in January-August from a year earlier, the weakest pace since December 1999 and cooling from 8.3 percent in January-July.

Sept 13. Curve shows signs of life

–Yields firmed Tuesday, continuing the reversal from Friday’s high.  The ten year yield rose 4.7 bps to 216.9, a fairly large swing from Friday’s low of 201.5.  The area from 199 to 201 takes on added importance as it held on a yield basis, corresponding to the halfway point between post-brexit low and post-election high.  The 2/10 treasury spread rose 2.7 bps to 83.4, which is above the initial low set after the June FOMC hike of 79.0.  However, the red/gold euro$ pack spread, while also up 2.25 bps yesterday, is still below the post-FOMC June low of 54.  I favor long curve trades, but would like to see some confirmation from the ED curve.  As the MacroTourist pointed out yesterday, September tends to be a steepening month on seasonal basis (I suspect that has something to do with generally weak equities on the same seasonal pattern…)

–Today’s news includes PPI, expected +0.3 with Core +0.2.  Core yoy expected 2.1.  CPI is tomorrow.  Because a new Apple phone is being released, and because CPI has been significantly impacted (negatively) by a price drop in telephone services, I looked at the BLS site and found that telephone services are 2.465% of CPI and that wireless is 70% of that.  Obviously, there’s been interest in the topic because the page was updated just last month. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheet-telephone-services.htm

–There was continued premium selling yesterday, for example 8k each sold of EDM8 9850 straddle at 22.5 and 8k 3EV 9800 straddle at 16.0 (settled 16.5).  On a settlement basis EDZ20 has only moved 14.5 bps from 9795.5 to 9810 in the last month (straddle sale looks good) but on a high to low basis, the last three sessions have seen a range of 17.5 bps from 9815 to 9798 (straddle sale looks a little less good).
–Mnuchin said yesterday that Trump may work with Democrats on infrastructure, an additional spur to government spending on rebuilding from the storms.  The budget ceiling going to have to raised by a LOT!  30 year auction today.

• ABOUT:
  Former member of the CME specializing in interest rate options and yield curve strategies.

  The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.