August 3. Steepen even if oil’s weak?

–Yields pushed higher Tuesday, with the ten yr yield up 3.8 at 153.5.  The curve steepened; 5/30 treasury spread posted a new recent high of  121.3 bps, up 3 on the day (strong resistance around 125/126).  Crude oil continues to slide, closing yesterday at 39.51, very near the midpoint of the rally from the low in the beginning of the year, to June’s high.

–Since the BoJ meeting, Japanese yields have surged, with both 5’s and 10’s up around 20-23 bps.  This is somewhat interesting in the context of Dudley’s speech on Monday. “If the econ outlook abroad deteriorates and this causes foreign countries to pursue a more accommodative set of monetary policies, then the dollar would likely appreciate… In this case, the US may need to adjust its own monetary path.   …Therefore we need to be a bit more careful about the risk of tightening monetary policy in a manner that proves to be premature, as compared to the alternative risk of being a little late.  If we were to realize that we were slightly late, policy can be adjusted by raising short term interest rates more quickly.”  In a way, Dudley’s comments are biased toward a steeper curve.  The Fed can’t hike because the USD may strengthen, and a stronger USD is disinflationary.  So, if the actions of foreign central banks cause steepening in their own curves, as with Japan (even if unintentionally), does the Fed follow suit?

–While the front end of the dollar curve remains extremely flat, for example EDZ16/EDZ17 settled 12.0, near new lows, the more deferred spreads are starting to show a pulse.  For example, EDZ18/EDZ19 settled 17.0.  Still extremely low, but given the Fed’s bias as articulated by Dudley, more deferred calendars might be the place to be.

–China Caixin Service PMI was lower than expected 51.7.  US news today includes ADP expected 170k and Non-mfg ISM expected 55.9.

August 2. It’s a tech world

–Though volume in the interest rate complex was abysmal on Monday, there are several things to note.  The ten year yield bounced by 4 bps to 149.7, and the curve steepened.  It seems as if every time there is hawkish Fed rhetoric, the curve flattens and bond yields decline.  But early Monday (Asian hours) the NY Fed’s Dudley again guided toward caution, and the curve ultimately steepened on Friday.  The front part of the curve remained completely flat, for example Dec’16/Dec’17 ED spread was up only 0.5 to 12.5.  But the red/gold pack spread (2nd to 5th year) rose 3 bps to nearly 49.  Perhaps the bond issuance by Microsoft was a factor.

–This morning, Japanese yields have jumped, with tens up 6 bps to -0.08.  RBA cut rates (expected) to 1.5%.

–What is interesting about the steepening bias is that it occurred against the backdrop of disinflationary commodity signals.  Dec Corn had a new low settle of just 334 1/4 (down 25% from the  high in June).  Same with Dec Wheat.  And Nov Beans at 961 1/2 are as low as they’ve been since April.

–However, center stage goes to Crude Oil which fell below $40/bbl (CLU6).  When using a continuous contract, the 50% retracement from the low in Feb at 26.05 to June high 51.67 in June is around 38.85, and the contract is nearing that level.  The decline off the June high so far is over 20%.  With regard to oil, XOM (Exxon Mobil) has always been one of the largest cap companies listed in the US.  Because of the price of oil, XOM yesterday fell 3.5%.  Market cap dropped to $356 billion.  Currently, the top 5 stocks in terms of market cap are tech companies: AAPL at $571b, GOOGL 550, MSFT 441, AMZN 362, and FB at $356b, the latter at essentially the same level as XOM.  Pretty amazing.

–Back in the late 1990’s tech surge, Merrill Lynch briefly changed its famous bull logo to a multi colored swirl of neon beams outlining a bull.  With the Nasdaq crash, the lights went out on that logo, and it’s impossible to even find an old rendition of it.  Maybe now BAML can use FB emoticons in the shape of a bull.  But here’s where the market cap story becomes much more interesting – in the financial sphere.  DB fell 3% yesterday, and, along with Credit Suisse will be deleted from the Stoxx Europe 50 Index.  Perhaps the decline in DB is also related in part to oil and oil derivatives. (Oil was also down a bit over 3.5%, correlation = causation, right?) So DB’s market cap, according to BBG is $18 billion.  Back in the days of Long Term Capital, the loss that nearly brought down the entire financial system was only around $5-6 billion.  Of course, that was a long time ago.  These days, losses of several billion are almost commonplace.  So it’s hard to grasp DB having a market cap of only $18 billion.  Let’s look at a few others.  CS is $24b.   UBS is $50.  JPM’s market cap is $252 billion.  Jeez, even Jamie Dimon is worth over $1b.  To put it in terms of an analogy that I’m comfortable with, it’s like the Monopoly Board.  DB is on Baltic Ave (rent is $4) and JPM is on Park Place (rent is $35).  With a hotel.  The point is that Draghi last week mentioned that the transmission of monetary policy in Europe is more dependent on banks.  Better get some duct tape.

August 1. If Dudley’s cautious, Yellen’s paralyzed

–Friday’s weak Q2 reading of just 1.2% sent yields and the dollar tumbling.  Ten year yield fell over 5 bps to 145.8.  All of the front one-year eurodollar calendar spreads (out to March’18/March’19) are between 12 and 13 bps; half a hike.  While SF Fed’s Williams suggested there could be two hikes this year, Dudley early this morning could only say “… I think it is premature to rule out further monetary policy tightening this year.”

–ISM today expected 53.2, same as last.  Employment on Friday.  Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole August 26.  China Caixin Mfg PMI came in 50.6, the first above 50 since Feb of 2015.

–Implied vol sinking to new recent lows across the treasury curve as yields decline, with TY at 4.8.

–Attached chart is 5y5y inflation forward, white line, ten year treasury vs tip spread (orange), and FF target (green).  Though market expectations of inflation have edged lower, it still appears as if FF could justifiably be at 2%.

RTRS: More Dudley.  “All three of these reasons – evidence that U.S. monetary policy is currently only moderately accommodative, the fact that U.S. financial conditions have been influenced by economic and financial market developments abroad, and risk management considerations – argue, at the moment, for caution in raising U.S. short-term interest rates.” Compare to Williams: “There is definitely a data stream that could come through in the next couple of months that I would think would be supportive of two rate increases.”

BBG:  With about two-thirds of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members having reported, earnings have declined 3.3 percent from a year earlier and sales have slumped 0.5 percent. Excluding results from energy companies, earnings have risen 1.1 percent and sales have gained 3 percent.

NOTE: Sales up 3%…not hard to see why GDP was soft.

–I’m not previously familiar with the PAYDEX index, but it appears as if payments are slowing…

AP: Companies’ slowdown in paying is reflected in a drop in PAYDEX, an index that tracks how much time small businesses take to pay their own creditors. PAYDEX fell 3 percent during the first half of this year from the last six months of 2015, according to Dun & Bradstreet Credibility Corp., which compiles the index. That decline in the index — which means companies are taking longer to settle up — followed a 1 percent increase at the end of last year when compared with the first half of 2015.

July 31. The Market Accepts Q2 GDP. Does the Fed?

On Friday, Q2 GDP growth based on preliminary source data was released at just 1.2%, versus what had been the Blue Chip Consensus of 2.3 to 2.5%.  Because of the snow and cold weather (oh wait, that was Q1’s excuse…).  Skimming through the categories, Gov’t consumption expenditures and investment were DOWN 0.9%.  On the other hand, Intellectual Property was UP 3.5%.  Take a look at the citizens around you.  Make sense?  Personal consumption expenditures were up 4.2%.  Now THAT is something I understand… the crowning achievement of the US:  the American consumer as the global engine of growth.

In any event, Atlanta’s GDP Now forecast had already been taken down to 1.8% after Thursday’s inventories and trade data. I would bet that this number will be closer to the final mark.  However, sub-2% growth after sub-1% in the first quarter isn’t exactly robust.

Yields and the dollar sank, as the US ‘divergence of growth versus the rest of the world’ appeared to be less divergent than initially thought.  The ten year yield fell nearly 11 bps on the week to just 145.8.  I wonder if Esther George would still have dissented in favor of an immediate hike if she saw this data. Probably so, as SF Fed’s Williams said after the data, “There is definitely a data stream that could come through in the next couple of months that I would think would be supportive of two rate increases.”  In an extremely insightful addendum, he also noted, “There’s data we could get that wouldn’t be supportive of that and it could be supportive of one maybe, or of none.”  In other words, ‘we simply don’t have a handle on things.’  Dallas Fed President Kaplan was more transparent in comments Friday, saying the current period the U.S. central bank faces now is going to be “as or more difficult” than financial crisis. (BBG).  He also said that we can’t continue to allow fiscal policy paralysis, and that the neutral rate has gone down.

Rightly or wrongly, market pricing across the US interest rate curve continues to reflect an economy that is simply stuck in the mud.  Note that the first seven one-year Eurodollar calendar spreads are between 12 and 13 bps.  That’s all the way from Sept’16/Sept’17 (12.5) to March’18/March’19 (13.0).  One year spreads generally indicate the amount of potential hiking in a given year.  At just 1/8^th %, these spreads show that the market is collectively giving the Fed the middle finger with respect to tightening plans.  It’s the same message being given to entrenched institutional structures across the globe.

A couple of other notes about GDP.   Analysts noted that a part of the softness was due to a decline in inventories, which could easily reverse.  Perhaps, but the inventory to sales ratio is still quite elevated at 1.4 (chart link on bottom of page).  Secondly, as noted above, gov’t spending was weak.  On this score, I would note that Fed’l Gov’t Debt Growth (proxy for spending) was 5% in 2015, and 4.6% in Q1 2016.  Government debt to GDP in the US is 104%. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp   Although a large infrastructure program would likely cause a boost in growth, total gov’t debt levels are at levels which cause concern.  And gov’t debt growing at over 4% in a 2% economy isn’t a recipe for success, it’s what sparked the European austerity programs.

At the same time, market participants are being coerced into reaching for lower yields, which offer little cushion against downturns, to which they are arguably more susceptible.  One might think that implied vol would have to remain slightly elevated to compensate for this risk.  But the search for yield is so overwhelming that it smothers premium as well.  As Pat Clarke said, “I think I saw a couple of basis points scurrying around in the corner that I have to catch.”  A mental image of futility.

For example, the VIX closed Friday at 11.87, near the low of the year, (and the low of the past five years).  From Reuters: “… the S&P 500 traded in a less-than-1 percent range throughout the 12 sessions to Friday, a lull not seen in data going back to 1970, according to Ryan Detrick, the senior market strategist at LPL Financial.”  In eurodollars, an example of premium compression occurred Friday, as the red pack 9900 straddle strip (2^nd year, Sept’17, Dec’17, Mar’18 and Jun’18)  was sold down to 207 from a settle of 213.5 Thursday. (Settled Friday at 207.5).  These sales are occurring in spite of a pretty big data week in the US, with ISM Monday (expected 53.0), and Employment on Friday (NFP 180k, avg hourly earnings 0.2).  Bank of England meeting is Thursday.

Compression is apparent in the front end of the market as well.  On Friday the 3 month Libor setting was 0.7591, a price of 99.2409.  EDU6 settled 99.21, just over 3 bps away.  The 9925 straddle settled 8.5, 4 bps in the money.  August/October FF spread (which isolates odds of a Sept FOMC hike) settled 2.5, or just 10% odds of a hike.  The narrowing of the spread between Libor and EDU6 likely signifies that front end pressure associated with money market reform has run its course.

Just a couple of other notes.  The Sept Crude Oil contract fell nearly 6% on the week.  Auto sales appear to be in a slowdown, and restaurant sales are weakening.  From Stifel:  “… the simultaneous [-1.5%] to [-2%] deceleration of Restaurant industry comps across all categories during 2Q16, within our most recent Stifel Sales Survey reflects the start of a US Restaurant Recession.  … if history is a guide, we warn investors that restaurant industry sales tend to be the ‘Canary that Lays the Recessionary Egg’ (i.e. the current -2% cut-back in dining out sales is a possible harbinger of a -2%-plus cut-back in the US consumers’ entire spending basket within 3-to-9 months.”

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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ISRATIO?cid=98

July 29. Past BoJ, on to Europe’s Stress Tests

–According to all reports, the BoJ disappointed the market by holding rates and bond buying constant, though purchases of ETFs were doubled to $58b year, or nearly $5b per month.  The yen soared with $/yen down to 103.58 currently, down 1.7%.  ESU is trading slightly lower this morning after having closed near the high of the recent range yesterday.  The past nine sessions have been in a tight range of 2150 to 2170.

–The other big release will be european stress test results, which I believe are expected at 3pm NY time.  DB is near its lows going into the results.

–In the US the Employment Cost Index is expected 0.6, while Q2 GDP is pegged at 2.5, though after yesterday’s trade and inventory numbers the Atlanta Fed GDP now forecast was slashed to 1.8 from 2.3.  Chicago PMI is also out, expected 54.0.

–Crude oil has been in a continuous downtrend all month, and is currently 40.80, down 34 cents (CLU6).  On the CLU6 contract the 0.618 retrace from January’s low to June’s high is 40.44.  When using a continuous contract chart, the 50% retrace is 38.86, which appears to be a target area.

–The eurodollar curve is in a deep freeze, with all one-year calendars between 13.5 and 16 bps, which means that three month spreads are only about 3-4 bps; this at a time of supposed tightening bias.  Yesterday there were several option plays for steepening, for example a buyer of EDZ6/0EZ7 9912 call calendar for 0.5, buying the front Dec (trade 20k).   Though the 3m Libor setting posted a new high yesterday of 0.7565, the front two eurodollar contracts have now stabilized and are edging higher, with open interest in EDU actually up by 20k yesterday according to preliminary figures.  EDZ was still down by 17k, but the contract is again higher this morning at 9914.5.

–One last note, the US Home-ownership rate fell to the lowest since 1965 at 62.9%.

July 28. Freaking out

–Yields fell in the wake of the FOMC statement, with the ten year yield down 4.4 bps to 151.5.  The curve flattened, with 2/10 down 1.2 bps to just under 79 bps, and the red/gold pack settled at a new (8 year) low of just 45.5 bps.  The FOMC was more hawkish than I expected, noting “…household spending has been growing strongly”.   However, relating to productivity, ”…business fixed investment has been soft”.  The most important line was “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.” (Or, ‘I guess we got past Brexit unscathed, but…. other challenges are on the horizon’).  In terms of business investment, note that yesterday’s Durable Goods  data was much weaker than expected at -4.0%, though Core Capital Goods (Orders Nondefense Ex Air) were +0.2.  In any case, the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q2 was trimmed from 2.4 to 2.3 as a result of the data. 

July 26. Long term pension returns at historic lows

–Yen has strengthened this morning on concerns that direct stimulus from Japan will fall short of expectations.  USDJPY fell from 105.80 yesterday to 104.26 now.  Crude oil is continuing to fall, and this morning is right at the 50% retrace (CLU6 contract) from the low in January to the high in June, $42.77.  Crude should find support in this area.  If not, then high yield should start to deteriorate after a strong run.

–Not all measures of the curve are making new lows, but red/gold pack spread did close at a new low of 46.25 bps.  2/10 is quite a bit steeper at 84 bps, down 2 on the day, and 5/30 closed at 115.  The bond contract, USU has seen 6 of the last 7 closes between 171-15 and 171-21.  This morning it is taking another stab at the upside.

–EDZ6 made a new low yesterday, having fallen over 25 bps in the past month.  Open interest continues to fall in EDU and EDZ, suggesting long liquidation related to money market reforms.  Yesterday there was heavy buying in EDV6 and EDZ6 9912/9925 c 1×2’s at 2.0 and 1-1.25 respectively to play for a modest bounce.

–From today’s WSJ: “Long-term returns for U.S. public pensions are expected to drop to the lowest levels ever recorded, intensifying a national debate over whether states and cities can continue to afford pension obligations.”  As John Mauldin points out in his latest missive, when government pension programs are not funded, taxpayers must foot the bill.  He points to Chicago and its massive property tax increase.  Link at bottom.  If long term returns are at historic lows, how much better can they be expected to do from here, with stocks near record highs?  So, while europe struggles with bail-ins at banks, US taxpayers can look forward to bailing-in pensions.

July 24. Ignoring Credible Threats, the CBs Have Our Backs

A common theme this year, which seems to be growing, is that correlations have been breaking down in markets, making it extremely difficult to draw conclusions about underlying trends.  It’s a chore to even organize my own ideas about cause and effect.  I will start by going back to the 4^th quarter of last year.  Oil had been selling off, the ten year treasury yield was around 2.25% (in November), one-year Eurodollar calendar spreads were between 55 and 65 bps.  The market was expecting a hike, and by early December the dollar index was at the very upper end of its range, over 100.  The Fed did indeed raise the FF target on Dec 16.  From there, oil accelerated its sell off.  High yield bonds plunged, as did emerging markets.  SPX fell over 10% from the beginning of December to the middle of January.  Central banks were nervous, and comforted the markets.

As of Friday SPX is at a new high.  The emerging market etf EEM is at a new high, as are high yield etfs HYG and JNK.  The High Yield Effective rate (BAML) went from 6% in mid-2015, to over 10% at the beginning of this year to 6.62% currently.  Euro$ one-year calendars are clustered between 15 and 18. An example of the yield plunge is below, the US Corporate BBB effective yield, which has plunged this year from 4.5% to under 3.4%.

The US ten year treasury yield also declined, from around 2.25 in November as mentioned above, to 1.57 on Friday.

Let’s keep that background in mind and introduce this note from Fitch:

Fitch Ratings-Chicago-18 July 2016: The U.S. Fitch Fundamentals Index dropped to -3 in 2Q16 from -2 the previous quarter as a pattern of weakening credit quality, mostly in the corporate finance space, took its toll, says Fitch Ratings. Six of the index’s 10 components remain in negative territory, three of those strongly so. The index is now at the lowest level since 3Q09.  “A key driver has been pressure in certain corners of the corporates area, leading to subdued growth expectations, higher defaults, and sharply lower recoveries, which at $0.20 on the dollar, are among the lowest that Fitch has seen”

The assessment by Fitch doesn’t really seem to square with the way stocks trade, so I checked corporate default rates:

Clearly accelerating, but from a fairly low level.  Regional Fed data, though having deteriorated slightly in some cases, doesn’t really support a case for waving red flags.  Chicago Financial Conditions Index, while rising (tighter) is still below zero, while Cleveland’s Financial Stress Index has been rising since Q1 of 2014.  However, KC and St Louis Financial Stress levels have been falling right along with corporate spreads.

In the beginning of the year, financial stress in the markets was apparent due to 1) plunging oil prices,;  which in turn caused 2) surging yields for junk bonds and 3) a stronger dollar which in turn hurt US exports, and sparked a USD funding crunch for emerging markets.  The Fed was thought to be on a tightening campaign.

Some of these conditions are returning:  Crude oil, (CLU6) ended at the low of the week at 44.19.  It’s nearly halfway back (down) from the low set in January of 32.85 to the high in June of 52.73.  The 50% retrace is 42.79; Friday’s low was 43.74.  The BBG Commodity Index likewise sold off, closing at its lowest level in two months.  The dollar index closed at its highest level in four months at 97.46, nearing the high end of the range from the past year (100.40 to 93.00).  GBP closed near the post-Brexit low, as did EUR.  China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan caused a rout in world equity markets last August; it’s now significantly weaker and though G20 officials jawbone about keeping the currency stable, USDCNY traded over 6.70 this week, a new high.  It was 6.40 AFTER the August adjustment.

In other words, some markets ARE starting to give warning hints, which are being ignored by SPX, EEM and HYG.  In short term interest rate markets, 3m LIBOR has pushed to a new high over 72 bps and swap spreads have blown out in response to money market reform regulations.  Odds for a Fed hike in December have edged higher.  On an anecdotal level, there’s this from Business Insider citing Edward Misrahi of RONIT:  “We see credit markets that are just surreal….The intermediation system has basically disappeared.  Regulation has made banks very unwilling to make markets.  …95% of bonds get bought by four people who put it away.  Those four are mostly mutual funds with daily liquidity, which means that if, for whatever reason, rates do go up, suddenly there are outflows from all these [funds], I don’t know what is going to happen.”  On this same topic of intermediation is Draghi: “…banks are important, especially for the Eurozone, which is basically a bank-based economy where the credit intermediation goes mostly through the bank lending channel…. That’s why we do care about bank equity prices for the transmission of our monetary policy.” (FT Alphaville).  From Reuters:  “Draghi hinted on Thursday at the possibility of setting up a public backstop to help Italian banks sell down some of their bad loans that have hampered their ability to lend.”  On Friday, the ECB is scheduled to release stress test results.  The banks’ stocks are barely holding together NOW; projecting scenarios of more extreme conditions can mean only one thing, nationalization.

This is already a bit long, but I want to display one other chart, which shows the percent of net worth to disposable personal income:

This chart is from Daniel Thornton (previously from the St Louis Fed) and Joe Carson.  Bloomberg link to story at bottom.

The problem, [Carson] said, is that “the financial cycle is way ahead of the economic cycle.” That’s a worry given that the past two downturns were driven by asset-price deflation.

“Nobody knows what’s going to happen,” Thornton said. “But there’s plenty of reason to think that’s a scary graph.”

The answer to the question as to why the financial cycle is way ahead of the economic cycle is pretty clear.  It’s the helicopter parenting of the central banks that want to soothe even the smallest aches of their charge, the financial markets, before any real pain is even felt.  As with children, it leads to bad behavior: funding share buybacks with debt, increasing leverage of all types, ignoring productive investment, flattening the curve, beating the VIX into submission, and whining.  By the way, the Democratic National Convention is this week.

Here’s one of the important planks:  “The Democratic Party is poised to adopt a policy platform at its convention next week that would prohibit bankers from serving on the boards of the Federal Reserve’s 12 regional headquarters and would aim to make the U.S. central bank more diverse.”  No bankers at banks.  No further comment.

Also this week (RTRS): “A total of 194 S&P 500 companies are expected report their quarterly earnings next week; that is much higher than normal for any one week, even during most reporting seasons.”  Big tech are GOOGL,  AMZN,  FB,  AAPL.  Bank of Japan also on Friday.

July 22. CANDY (front end euro$ contracts) CRUSH

–Although net changes in interest rate futures weren’t particularly large, there is quite a bit of roiling just below the surface.  The ten year yield eased 1.5 bps to 156.3.  The big change is weakness in the front end of the eurodollar curve, brought on in part by regulatory changes for institutional money market accounts.  The first four euro$ contracts (whites) were down an average of 1.75 bps, while reds were -0.875 and greens were unchanged.  There was significant put activity in front contracts, with large buying in EDU6 9912p (volume 150k and OI -27k), and in EDZ6 9900/9887ps, with 100k bought for 2.25. According to prelim OI sheets, the 9900p fell 30k and 9887p gained 51k.  Futures open interest was down in both EDU6 and EDZ6, by 25k and 30k.  The conclusion is not so much that the Fed is on the cusp of a hike, but that the front end is having what is probably a one-off adjustment reflecting a higher risk premium.  Indeed, implied volatility strengthened in dollars but was essentially unchanged in treasuries.  EDZ6 9912^ was 16.0 on Wednesday but closed 17 yesterday.  This increase in risk was also clearly on display in swap spreads, for example, the 2yr swap spread was up 4.2 bps late in the day at 26.5, having been around 16.4 in the middle of last week.  In another example, EDH7 was -1.5 on the day, while Jan, Feb and March FF contracts were all +0.5.

–Because of weakness in the front, the euro$ curve flattened, with the red/gold pack spread at 48.5, near the absolute low for the move of 47.25.  Near one-yr eurodollar calendar spreads fell, with Dec’16/Dec’17 down 1 to 17.0.

–Crude oil settled at its lowest level in three months, with CLU6 down $1/bbl to 44.75, on inventory and supply concerns.  One of the underlying themes regarding the ‘reflation’ story was the recovery in oil prices, however, CLU6 has fallen nearly 15% from its high settlement of 52.31 in early June.  And I may as well mention the gut wrenching declines in Corn and Wheat, with CZ6 at a new low this morning of 338 1/2, down 25% from June’s high, and Wheat down over 20% from the high.

–Draghi yesterday mentioned the importance of Europe’s banks as a transmission linkage for monetary policy, and is obviously wrestling with the non-performing loan situation, with no clear solutions.  The euro currency future tested 110.00, but inexplicably (to me anyway) held that level and is slightly higher this morning at 110.50.  US news today includes Markit Mfg PMI expected 51.5 from 51.3.  AUGUST treasury options expire today.

July 21. Pressure on front end of Eurodollar Futures curve

–News in the US today includes Chgo Fed Nat’l Activity, expected -0.2.  Philly Fed 4.5 from 4.7 last.  Existing Home Sales 5.48m and LEI +0.2.

• ABOUT:
  Former member of the CME specializing in interest rate options and yield curve strategies.

  The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.