Focus on prices, but that’s no longer the main driver

July 26, 2024
**************

–News today includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE prices.  Expected 0.1 from 0.0 month/month and 2.4 from 2.6 yoy.  Core 0.2 from 0.1 with yoy 2.5 from 2.6.

Note, yesterday’s  Core PCE QoQ was higher than expected at 2.9%.  Olympics begin.  Trump speaking at Bitcoin conference in Nashville tomorrow.  FOMC Wednesday.

–Ten year yield fell 3.4 bps to 4.254%.  Curve flattened after making slight new ytd highs on Wednesday.  2/10 went out at -18.7 (down 5.5) and 5/30 at 35.5 (down 2.7).  From open interest it appears as if there was heavy long liquidation in TU and FV as open interest in those contracts fell 81k and 27k.  TY open interest jumped 41k, likely related to large option flows.  There was a buyer yesterday of >100k TYU4 112c.  High price paid was 31 for 50k covered 111-045 with 31d.  Final settle was 22 vs 110-255 (28d at that level), so marked well against the peak buys.  Open interest in the calls was +102k so obviously new.  August treasury options expire today.  In TYQ 111.25p there were liquidating sales at 31 and 32.  Open interest in that put fell 22k. (settled 31, 29 itm).  Vol firmed across treasuries.   TYU atm 110.75^ settled 1’35, or 6.2, still probably a bit cheap.  Yen carry adjustments appear to be the biggest driver; $/yen slightly higher this morning at 154.25.

–Flattening most evident on SOFR curve (from reds back).  SFRZ4 unch’d at 9534.5, Z5 DOWN 3 at 9631.5, Z6 unch’d at 9648.5, Z7 UP 2 at 9645.5. While SFRU4/U5 rose 4.5 to -123.5. Euribor U4/U5 made a new low settle at -97.

–What’s the state of the ‘aspirational’ US consumer?  LULU Lemon yoga pants half off!  On January 2, LULU was 505.38.  Yesterday, 247.32.   

Euribor calendar pictured below

I changed my mind

July 25, 2024
*************

–Weakness in equities failed to spark much of a flight-to-quality in rate futures.  DJIA -1.25%, SPX -2.3% and NasdaqComp -3.5% but the ten year yield actually rose 4.8 bps to 4.288%.  Front SOFR contracts moved higher but there was little sense of panic and no evidence of a ‘reach’ for otm calls. SFRH’27 forward closed LOWER on the day.  Some curve measures made new highs for the year.  2/10 at -13 was up about 7 bps (the new 2yr partly responsible given the roll).  Low this year in 2/10 has been -49.7, set one month ago on June 25.  5/30 new high at +38, just barely eclipsing the high made in January.  Low of this year has been +1.7 bps in April.

–PBOC now cut the one-year benchmark rate by 20 bps to 2.3%. Japanese yen is making a new recent high this morning with $/yen 152.35.  It was as high as 162 earlier in the month. Yen carry trades being unwound, contributing to weakness in US stocks and bonds.  Yesterday former NY Fed President Dudley flipped to a position of advocating rate cuts in an op-ed column titled ‘I changed my mind’, and this morning El-Erian has an opinion piece strongly endorsing a cut in September… and suggesting the Fed throw the 2% inflation target out the window.   

–Biden also changed his mind and formally withdrew from the presidential election race.  I don’t quite understand how that ‘saves democracy’, but that’s the new slogan, and the mega donors are going to pound it into our heads until it has news-anchor commandment status.  Well, wait a second, that might not be the greatest analogy…

–Q2 GDP first estimate released today, expected 2.0%.  Core Prices expected 2.7% from 3.7%.  Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is 2.6%, and NY Fed’s Nowcast is 2.0%.  With Fed Funds 5.25 to 5.5%, rates can certainly be considered restrictive with room for an ease.   However, I don’t think Powell is likely to change his mind on a 2% inflation target. The flip to FAIT in 2020 backfired spectacularly. Let’s now focus on the hard target.

–A Sept ease is still being fully priced, with FFV4 settling 9494.5, +2.5.  Current EFFR is 5.33% or 9467.  An ease should take it to 5.08% or 9492.  So 9494.5 leaves a bit of room for the possibility of 50.  

–5yr was a bit soft yesterday.  7yr auction today.  PCE prices tomorrow. Trump is delivering comments at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference on Saturday.  

–Copper continues to implode, with HGU4 now settling 410.90, below the 200 dma. This contract rocketed from 3.75 to 5.12 from February to May as the data center/ AI / power generation craze was pounded into our heads like something that would… save democracy.  Now we’re going back to gas-combustion cars.  You’ll pull into the Sinclair station. A clean-cut guy named Bob (embroidered on his nametag) is going to wipe your windshield and offer to check the oil.  You’ll just pop your head out the window and say, Just fill’er up.   

Exit Doors

July 24, 2024
**************

–Solid 2y auction at 4.434, 2.81 bid/cover.  Philly Fed Services at -19.1 were at the very low end of the range for the past four years.

–Yields fell slightly.  Tens down 2 bps to 4.24%.  Five-yr auction today.  Other news includes S&P PMIs and New Home Sales.

–Stocks starting the day on the back foot.  Both GOOGL and TSLA reported; pre-market -3% and -7%.  ESU -43,75 at this writing, 5555.50. Like Joe, investors are heading for the exit doors.

–Yesterday I mentioned TU calls; contract +2.25 to 102.1625 and Sept 103c from 3.5 to 4.5.  Sept Copper continues its slide, but held the 200 dma yesterday with a low 413.55 (200dma 412.30).  The high in May was almost exactly $1 higher at 513.  Eurozone PMI weak this morning. Yen continues to recover and $/yen is now below 155, lowest since May.

–A month ago Karine Jean-Pierre floated the idea that clips portraying Biden as frail or shaky were ‘deep-fakes’.  Biden is to address the nation at 8 pm today about his forced exit.

TU (2yr) calls for earthquake insurance

July 23, 2024
**************

–Quiet Monday.  Early weakness in curve and treasury futures abated.  Tens closed up 2.1 at 4.26% while twos were up 1.6 to 4.521% (new twos being auctioned today).  Though some had considered next week’s FOMC to be in play for a longshot ease, near contracts closed a couple of bps lower.  SFRU4 9491.5s, down 2.  FFV4 settled 9491 (-1.5) or 5.09%.  First time that contract has settled below 9492 (which is exactly one 25 bp cut) since the July 11 CPI data.  FFQ4 settled 9468 or 5.32%.

–Biden was supposed to meet with Netanyahu today, but the meeting was cancelled (and possibly pushed back) in midair.  There is talk that Harris would not meet with Netanyahu in Biden’s stead.  I would point up the risk of a change in policies (foreign and otherwise) with the new presumptive nominee.  Issues might be compounded if Biden is in the midst of a more serious health problem.  Uncertainties are perhaps underpriced.  Even treasuries might see some shading around their “risk-free” status.  

–From Matt Taibbi (regarding Biden’s letter of withdrawal)

The letter wasn’t posted on the White House briefing room site, even as lesser news (including a statement purporting to quote Biden at length on “climate pollution reduction grants”) was posted yesterday. It was furthermore written neither on presidential stationery nor under campaign letterhead and appeared rushed, thanking Vice President Kamala Harris for “being an extraordinary partner,” but not endorsing her.

–Two-year treasury options aren’t particularly active, but in case the Dem Convention turns into a disaster (August 19-22) it’s almost worth considering buying TUU 103c which settled 3.5 ref 102-14.  Sept treasury opts expire Aug 23.  These are around one-quarter pct otm. [THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION. IT IS ONLY TO NOTE THAT SEPT TREASURY OPTIONS CAPTURE THE CONVENTION. TO MY KNOWLEDGE, NANCY PELOSI DOES NOT HOLD A POSITIION IN THESE OPTIONS]

Bulletproof

July 22, 2024
***************
–I thought it would be an open Democratic convention when Biden dropped, but the media now claims that all big donors are solidly behind Harris, even though the same media said large donors were left exasperated after a strategy call on Friday.  Some of the headlines:

NBC News: ‘Ludicrous’: Donors leave call with Kamala Harris frustrated and annoyed

The Independent: Some Democrat donors reportedly left fuming after Kamala Harris call: ‘A total failure’

–In any case, I am not too sure that a Trump win is positive for markets.  Gov’t deficits have been a big growth driver, and may be trimmed.  Immigrants have boosted both costs and growth (now may reverse).  Core Service prices which have been the inflation thorn, consist of shelter, health costs, transportation.  Not sure about shelter, but I would imagine RFK as HHS head would cut health care costs, open drilling would reduce energy/transport costs.  High tariffs would be inflationary.  Ending Russia/Ukraine war reduces demand for US weapons.  Overall, a lot of uncertainty.  Copper prices keep going lower, but I would imagine heavy demand as the US turns inward for basic manufacturing, etc.

–China cut the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.7% from 1.8%.  One-year prime lending rate authorized to drop to 3.35% from 3.45%.
–Auctions of 2, 5 and 7 year notes this week starting tomorrow.  PCE prices on Friday. 

–It’s not quite a bunker, but may have some potential in today’s environment (5 acres on a lake):
“What’s strange? EVERY surface is covered with expensive bulletproof Lexan – and I mean “every.”

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1360-Old-Trail-Rd-Maumee-OH-43537/34722959_zpid/

I’ll get you back next week

July 21, 2024 – Weekly comment
**********************************

This is Popeye’s friend Wimpy.  Favorite saying: “I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today!”

A friend (thanks TMS) mentioned that the recent Elliott Wave Theorist had a section on dividend recapitalizations, which cited a Bloomberg article from June 17: Private Equity Won’t Stop Gorging on Debt to Pay Investors.  From the BBG article:

Managers of exclusive pools of capital have long promised fat, and fast, returns to their limited partners, such as endowments and insurers. But their pledges have fallen victim to a serious drought in mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings that’s upended their normal course of exiting holdings and handing the proceeds over. Dividend recaps are a feasible alternative because debt investors flush with cash are lining up to buy all kinds of credit products. 

A dividend recap involves borrowing to pay out cash to investors.  The company, which isn’t throwing off the requisite cash flow, is loaded with more debt.  Huge red flag, perhaps not at zero rates, but certainly in this environment. There’s a cute article on Axios that has a different take: Another sign of investor optimism: Dividend recaps are back.  This one is from January 29, 2024 (link at bottom).  The article is actually more balanced than the headline would indicate, but it really tries to put a positive spin on actions taken due to economic stress.  Depending on Wimpy to pay you back. 

Another article from The Korea Times has this quote, which is related to NVDA, but really captures the broader idea of a slowdown:
Comparing the recent enthusiasm toward AI to the gold rush, the head of Korea’s major chipmaker and the largest business lobby anticipated that the U.S. firm [NVDA] would maintain its lead at least over the next three years, just as the sellers of pickaxes and jeans did during the mass migration of miners to the west of North America in the 19th century.

“When there was no more gold, the sellers became unable to sell pickaxes,”

I’ve copied a couple of charts from the June Bloomberg article below, and the link is at bottom. 

And here’s another chart, which I would caption (from personal experience)
WHEN A TRADE BECOMES AN INVESTMENT:

I absolutely am wading into a topic above my depth here, but it does seem as if non-bank lenders are posing significant systemic risks, or at least are raising odds of a hard slowdown.  Another BBG article highlights a similar tactic.  From July 18: Private Credit Pushes Deeper Into Risk Wall Street is Fleeing. 

Such borrow-now, pay-later deals are proliferating. Payment-in-kind, or PIK debt, allow borrowers to pay interest with more debt. One controversial practice cropping up on more deals involves a “synthetic PIK,” which lets companies defer interest payments without calling the loan PIK. 

Of course, there are all kinds of prudent asset managers.  The numbers that I have seen from my cursory research don’t look particularly large.  But then, they didn’t think subprime mortgage lending was that big of a deal back in the day. 

A company called Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is on an acquisition spree, last week buying Atalaya Capital Mgmt “pushing deeper into the red-hot private credit market.” Blue Owl is paying $450m up front, $350m in equity and $100m in cash.  In April, OWL bought Prima in a deal comprised of $157m equity and $13m in cash.  A BBG note on Owl says: “Overall accrual rates and portfolio measures are solid, though fixed-charge coverage has slipped, PIK income has risen and non-accruals of 2.5% in 1Q are on the rise.”  A BBG reporter values OWL’s assets at around $215b.  But they seem to be able to use their stock as currency.  Market cap is $28b, while Blackrock cap is $124b and Blackstone is $168b.  All three surged following the lower than expected CPI data.  This topic bears watching…

****************
Last week I posted a chart of the MOVE index and wrote this: “MOVE index, a measure of implied volatility in treasuries… ended the week near the low of the year, as yields eased in the context of a steepening curve with inflation concerns receding. VIX similarly closed near the low of the year at 12.46; in fact it’s near the post-covid low.  Insurance is cheap.” 

Insurance is still cheap though vols are up. MOVE from 86.8 to 94.3 this week. From Credit Bubble Bulletin:
The VIX (S&P500 volatility) Index jumped 4.1 this week to 16.52, the largest weekly increase since (banking crisis) March 2023. The VIX closed Friday at the high since the April (Israel/Iran missile tit-for-tat) spurt of de-risking/deleveraging. 

Note: Israel struck a Yemeni port city in response to Houthi attacks.  Netanyahu scheduled to meet Biden on Tuesday in Washington. 

Other upcoming events:
Treasury auctions, $69b 2y Tuesday, $30b 2y FRN Wednesday, $70b 5y Wed, $44b 7yr Thursday
Inflation data Friday:
PCE Price MoM 0.0 from 0.0
PCE Price YoY 2.4 from 2.6
PCE CORE MoM 0.1 from 0.1
PCE CORE YoY 2.5 from 2.6

Olympics start Friday, July 26.
JULY 27 Trump speaks at BITCOIN 2024 conference in Nashville
JULY 29 Treasury Refunding Announcement
JULY 31 FOMC

OTHER THOUGHTS/ TRADES

It wasn’t a particularly big week for rates, though treasury yields rose 4 to 5.5 bps across the curve, with notable weakness into the end of Friday.   

The types of trades that have become more prevalent on the SOFR curve are buying near calls or call spreads and selling midcurves with the same expiration to express a steepening bias.

For example, there had been a decent amount of SFRH5 9600c vs 0QH5 9700c, buying the near.  Futures settlements on Friday: 9568 in SFRH5 and 9637.5 in SFRH6, so 32 otm vs 62.5 otm.  Option spread settled -0.75 for the near (17.0 vs 17.75).  This futures spread, SFRH5/H6, settled -69.5, but there’s a pretty steep roll as SFRZ4/Z5 settled -97 (9532/9629).  SFRZ4 9600c settled 4.0 vs 0QZ5 9700c at 10.0 so if nothing else changes, this trade rolls negatively, but of course if futures remain below strikes both calls go out worthless on March 14.   Perception of near-term aggressive ease needed.

Last week the trade was +SFRZ4 9525/9550cs (8.5 settle vs 9532) vs -2QZ4 9675/9700cs (7.0 settle vs 9644.5).  So this is an in-the-money cs vs 30.5 otm.  Data that doesn’t support a near term ease will probably negatively impact this trade.  Similar play: +SFRM5 9575/9600cs vs 2QM5 9650/9675cs, paid 1 for front June.  Settled 11.75 vs 9596.5 and 10.5 vs 9646.5. 

As the prospects for easing have been moved forward, the peak contract on the SOFR strip has also moved closer.  For example, at the end of May, the third blue or the 15^th quarterly was the peak, and now it’s migrated one year closer and is the third green or 11^th contract (SFRH7 at 9647). In considering a steepener on the SOFR curve, the critical factor is to select the near contract that will be most impacted by ease, and to try to sell something further out, ideally near or past the peak of the strip.   


Below is a chart of US (active contract) vs Blackrock.  Seems to be some divergence since the start of this year, though perhaps a steepening curve (with lower funding rates in the near term) is the most important catalyst for asset mgrs.

	7/12/2024	7/19/2024	chg
UST 2Y	446.2	450.5	4.3	wi 446.5/446.0
UST 5Y	411.1	416.1	5.0	wi 415.0/414.5
UST 10Y	418.7	423.9	5.2
UST 30Y	440.1	445.0	4.9
GERM 2Y	282.3	278.4	-3.9
GERM 10Y	249.6	246.7	-2.9
JPN 20Y	187.0	183.1	-3.9
CHINA 10Y	225.9	226.0	0.1
SOFR U4/U5	-128.0	-122.5	5.5
SOFR U5/U6	-30.5	-29.0	1.5
SOFR U6/U7	0.5	-1.0	-1.5
EUR	109.08	108.85	-0.23
CRUDE (CLU4)	81.02	78.64	-2.38
SPX	5615.35	5505.00	-110.35	-2.0%
VIX	12.46	16.52	4.06

https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SEX54QT0G1KW

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/29/private-equity-dividend-recap

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2024/07/129_378969.html

https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SGO92WDWRGG0

https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SGPRECDWLU68

Oh, we got both kinds, country AND western

July 19, 2024
**************

I don’t like country music, but I don’t mean to denigrate those who do.  And for the people who like country music, denigrate means ‘put down’.

-Bob Newhart, passed at age 94

–Treasury yields rose despite a continued pullback in stocks.  Tens up 4.6 bps to 4.188%.  SPX down 44 or 0.8%.  On the SOFR strip reds thru golds were down 3.5 to 5 (1 to 4 years forward).  The peak contract on the strip is SFRH’27 at a price of 9654, right around 3.5%.

–No economic data of consequence today, but it is July equity option expiration.  Beware the gamma vortex. Also, a global tech outage has disrupted airline, media and banking operations this morning.  We’ll just call it a ‘glitch’. TRADE RECOMMENDATION:  Buy some candles, canned goods and a good paperback; more of this is on the way. 

–A couple of interesting snippets. 
BBG headline: Texas’ Biggest Pension Fund to Pull Almost $10 Billion from Private Equity.
WSJ  by Greg Ip: Why the Fed Should Cut Rates Now – Not Wait Until September

The next FOMC is in 12 days, July 31.  August Fed Funds settled 9468, indicating less than 5% chance of an ease at the July meeting, while FFV4 at 9492.5 has fully priced a September cut.  It would take something pretty gosh-darn outlandish to make the Fed move in July.  However, if anyone should notice Austin Private Wealth buying FFQ4, let me know. 
[just prior to last weekend, an SEC filing dated July 12 showed Austin PW reporting a new put position representing a short of 12 million DJT shares.  Clerical error.  I said, IT WAS A CLERICAL ERROR]

Anyway, it’s now all about the labor market, and Jobless Claims rose to 243k yesterday.  Payroll data is released to you and me on August 2, two days after the FOMC, but there have been instances, through clerical error of course, where some market participants randomly received the data early.  Now the drama shifts to who Kamala Harris will choose as a running mate…

It’s About Jobs

July 18, 2024
**************

–Rates eased a bit in a quiet session, with tens -2.5 bps to 4.142%.  SPX fell 1.4% and NazComp fell twice as much, -2.77%.  Waller spoke yesterday; he’s an important voice on the Fed, and while speeches earlier in the year were ‘What’s the Rush’ and ‘There’s Still No Rush’, this one was ‘Getting Closer’ [with respect to cutting the FF target].  He ended his speech with three scenarios: 1) continued good readings on inflation. 2) uneven inflation data, which is more likely but leads to less certainty of a near term ease 3) resurgent inflation data.  Before concluding with these scenarios, he had deemed the labor market to be in a ‘sweet spot’, but is quite cognizant that what had been a tight jobs market “has changed dramatically.”  I would consider a fourth scenario: uneven price data but notable deterioration in labor.  Would that forestall a near-term ease?  

–In any case, action in the short end of the curve revealed a modicum of bias in terms of pricing a greater magnitude of ease, pushed slightly further back.  SFRU4 settled down 1 at 9495, but contracts from Dec’25 forward were +3 to +3.5.  Yesterday I noted that the pre-election, post-election calendar spread of SFRU4/SFRH5 closed at a new low of -79.5 (9495/9574.5).  Fairly aggressive to price 3 eases in a six month spread.  SFRU4/U5 also closed at new low -131 (9495/9626).   Obviously these spreads aren’t always ‘right’, for example the near 6-month calendar in January was -80 to -90.  But….No Ease. 

–Today’s news includes Jobless Claims expected 225-230k (what happens on >250k) and Philly Fed expected 2.9 from 1.3.   

SPX priced in Gold. Waller today.

July 17, 2024
*************

–Retail Sales stronger than expected yesterday, though in real terms, still weak.  After fairly aggressive steepening from mid-June to Monday, the curve retraced, with 2’s down only 1.1 bp to 4.442% and tens down 6.2 to 4.167%.  Both SPX and Gold made new highs, but as the attached chart shows, SPX priced in gold is breaking.

–KRE regional bank ETF has simply exploded since mid-June, from 46 to a new ytd high of 56 yesterday (+4.6% just yesterday) but somewhat interesting that Schwab (SCHW) was crushed, down 10% yesterday, -7.74 to 67.43 as the company said it would reduce its size.  Jeanna Smialek (NYT) tweets: 

Donald Trump on Fed Chair Jay Powell’s term (which expires in 2026) in a @BW interview: “I would let him serve it out especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.”

–Waller at 9:30 this morning on Economic Outlook.  Beige Book this afternoon.  20-year auction.  Housing Starts and Industrial Production.

–Heavy volume in SFRU4/SFRZ4 futures spread yesterday, said to be initiated by a seller; settled unch’d at -40.5 (9496/9536.5).  This has been the low of the move; yesterday printed -43.  Both contracts saw open interest fall by about 29k.  Looking back to last December when the near 1-yr calendar was below -150, the first 3-m calendar had traded to -49.  Currently U4/U5 is -128.  Three-month calendar near -50 is hard to sustain… Also worth a mention is a decline in open interest in SFRU5 and Z5, -55k and -14k.  These contracts were nearly unchanged, 9624.0, unch and 9637.0 +0.5, while contracts a year forward were up 3 to 3.5.  I would characterize U5 and Z5 as profit-taking after a large move.           

Priming for an ease

July 16, 2024
**************

–Goldman opined that the Fed has solid rationale for a July rate cut; Moody’s had also said something similar. (FOMC is July 31). With current EFFR at 5.33% or 9467, August Fed funds surged up to 9473 before falling back to 9468.5, an unchanged settlement.  FFV4 which captures the Sept FOMC meeting as well as July’s, ticked up to 9499 and settled 9494, up 1.5 on the day.  A 25 bp rate cut should put the new EFFR at 5.08% or 9492, so a print at 9499 begins to reflect significant concerns that a cut of 50 could occur.  A couple of days ago, SFRU4 9500c were sold at 3.0, yesterday settled 5.0 with SFRU4 +2 at 9496.5.

–Powell expressed greater confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction.  I’m not sure how much weight should be given to anecdotal evidence, but a friend who is involved with a private airport near Chicago said that business travel is rapidly slowing (thanks DK); last month’s fuel sales were the lowest in years.  WSJ has a headline: Evictions surge in major cities in the American Sunbelt.   BBG: Salesforce Cuts More Jobs in Latest Sign of Tech Austerity.

-Given a shift in sentiment toward near-term ease, the curve continues to steepen.  2y note fell 1 bp to 4.453% while tens rose 4.2 bps to 4.229%.  2/10 ended at a new high -22.4.  On June 27, just over 2 weeks ago, I marked SFRU5/SFRU8 at -47 (9587.5/9634.5).  Yesterday it settled -14.5 (9624/9638.5), a surge of over 30 bps. [notice that the price of SFRU8 barely changed].  In tens, there was a late buyer of 30k TY week-1 111.25p for 46.  Settled 48 vs 110-315,  Settlement date is 2-August, on which NFP will be released.  Seeing a small bounce in treasuries this morning with TYU4 111-09.    

–Kugler speaks today at 2:45 on ‘…Economic Measurement and Creative Solutions’.  I guess that just means changing the data!  Retail Sales as well, expected -0.3%, but ex-auto and gas +0.2%.  From the St Louis Fed website, I pulled the chart below on Retail Sales (nominal).  The recent slope of the curve is surprisingly flat given inflation levels of 4-6%.  According to my measurements, from April 2022, when the Fed had just started to hike, to May 2024 (last data on chart), total nominal retail sales were up just 3%…over TWO years.  Real Retail sales are soft.  But maybe we can just measure them differently.

• ABOUT:
  Former member of the CME specializing in interest rate options and yield curve strategies.