It’s all ‘money-good’
March 21, 2023
–US is looking at ways to guarantee all depositors, which should effectively end the worst of this crisis. However it doesn’t alleviate funding problems for long-dated assets in an inverted curve (like commercial real estate). In front of tomorrow’s FOMC, April Fed Funds settled 9524.5, a price between 0 and a hike of 25 tomorrow; leaning toward the latter. But FFJ4, one year hence, settled 9629.5, a spread of -105 bps, which indicates easing is on the way. Good for an eventual return to a positive curve, but probably not all that good in terms of breaking the back of inflation. As QT unceremoniously draws to a close, the long end of the market likely will test higher yields, due to both increased inflation expectations and a lot more issuance.
–Recent action has sparked a panic bid in vol for shorter maturity contracts. On the treasury curve, US vol is only double FV vol as the latter has exploded higher on a relative basis, even though the DV01 of US to FV is 3.4 to 1. Now is the time to favor long US vol vs FV. In the SOFR curve, straddles eased. SFRM3 9550^ was sold in decent size around 93.5 and settled 90. There was a buyer of 9500/9600 c 1×2 for 4, settled 4.0 (67.50/31.75). With a settle of 9551 in SFRM3, that means time value in the 9500c is 16.5 (the 9500p settled 17) and the 9600c call time value is 31.75; extraordinary skew for equally out-of-the-money options.
In: Eurodollar Options
First day of Spring!
March 20, 2023
–UBS ‘saves’ Credit Suisse. CS bondholders bailed in. New low crude oil around $65/bbl. The good news is that the SPR can be refilled at a reasonable price. The bad news is that the architecture of western finance is being destroyed. Win some, lose some.
–Ten year inflation-indexed breakeven to 10y hit new low 212 bps, an indication of lower forward inflation (low since 2021).
–Ten-yr yield ended Friday 3.38%, down 18 on the day and 30 on the week.
–All short-end one year calendars are negative, and falling. SFRM3/M4 -116, SFIM3/M4 (sonia) -56, ERM3/M4 -34.
–Recall the large buyer of SFRZ3 9550/9750cs for 33 to 35 on Feb 1 (Fed day)? He took some pain as that cs went all the way down to around 13. Settled Friday 73.25.
In: Eurodollar Options
Biden, Buffett and Yellen walk into a bar…
March 19, 2023 -Weekly Comment
**************************************
Biden, Buffett and Yellen walk into a room together… Sounds like the start of good joke, doesn’t it? But apparently that’s the triumvirate at work on solving the latest banking crisis.
Elizabeth Warren wants a Congressional investigation into SVB. “We took zero % deposits and put them into 1.5% bonds and didn’t hedge. Rates made a surprise move to the upside.” There, investigation over.
In two weeks the 2y is down 100 bps to 3.83%. Discount window borrowings highest ever.
Below is a tweet from @unusual_whales
“This is truly incredible.
Here is an exchange with Senator James Lankford & Yellen:
He asks, “Will every community bank… get the same treatment as SVB?” [all deposits guaranteed]
Yellen, “Banks only get the treatment if… the failure to protect uninsured depositors would create systemic risk.”
As of early Sunday, I don’t believe Switzerland has guaranteed everything at Credit Suisse in order for UBS to “buy” CS. They will at some point. Yellen has single-handedly ensured that US too-big-to-fail banks are getting bigger, which is also a national guarantee.
What is clear is this: a deeply inverted curve eventually causes serious problems. High funding rates in a pay-as-you-go society are like gum in the engine. Now it’s all about counter-party risk. *And that’s when I showed them my gold holdings*
Gold soared 10% since March 7 (1814 to 1989). SPX priced in gold [chart above] made a new low for the past couple of years. WTI Crude priced in gold is near its lowest price apart from the covid theatrics in 2020, and that’s going back to the 1980s, though this chart only shows history back to 2005.
In terms of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, FFJ3 settled 9527.0. Throughout March the Fed Effective rate (EFFR) has been either 4.57 or 4.58, a price equivalent of 9542.5. The ECB and Fed are trying to separate financial stability from inflation. NGMI.
The ECB went 50, the April FF contract forecasts a slight tilt toward the Fed doing 25 rather than nothing. After this meeting, the market predicts eases. For example, FFN3 (July, there’s an FOMC July 26, but FFN3 mostly prices the June 14 FOMC) settled 9551.5 or 4.485%, lower than current EFFR. FFN3 was up 31 bps on the day in price, and 78.5 on the week. SFRM3/SFRU3 3-mo calendar spread went from -16 on 3/10 (9471.5/9487.5) to -34 on Friday 3/17 (9562/9596). So, SFRU3 is now close to 4%.
What’s perhaps more interesting is the violent move in 2/10 from -109 on Mar-8 to -44 Friday. 5/30 went from -46 to +12 over the same time period. Moves like this suggest that the back end of the SOFR curve will become more positive. On the SFR curve, the nearest peak is SFRH’25 at 9697 (right around 3%). SFRH’27 is 9701, followed by M’25 at 9701.5, which is the absolute peak on the curve. Every contract in the three year period from March’25 to March’28 is between 9693 and 9701.5. I would think that every contract from SFRU’25 back will start moving significantly above zero on a calendar spread basis. When the Fed IS forced to ease, it typically does so quickly, and the back end of the curve steepens.
| 3/11/2023 | 3/17/2023 | chg | ||
| UST 2Y | 458.8 | 383.1 | -75.7 | |
| UST 5Y | 395.8 | 346.1 | -49.7 | |
| UST 10Y | 369.1 | 339.1 | -30.0 | |
| UST 30Y | 369.3 | 359.7 | -9.6 | |
| GERM 2Y | 309.7 | 238.7 | -71.0 | |
| GERM 10Y | 250.8 | 210.7 | -40.1 | |
| JPN 30Y | 138.7 | 128.7 | -10.0 | |
| CHINA 10Y | 288.1 | 286.6 | -1.5 | |
| SOFR M3/M4 | -124.5 | -109.5 | 15.0 | |
| SOFR M4/M5 | -72.0 | -24.5 | 47.5 | |
| SOFR M5/M6 | -17.0 | -1.0 | 16.0 | |
| EUR | 106.42 | 106.65 | 0.23 | |
| CRUDE (CLK3) | 76.78 | 66.93 | -9.85 | |
| SPX | 3861.59 | 3916.64 | 55.05 | 1.4% |
| VIX | 24.80 | 25.51 | 0.71 | |
In: Eurodollar Options
Faith in the system
March 17, 2023
–Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo each making a $5B uninsured deposit into First Republic Bank.
– Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley are each making uninsured deposit of $2.5B and BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Trust and US Bank are each making an uninsured $1.1B deposit, for a total deposit from 11 banks of $30 billion, according to joint statement-BBG.
–Every news site is reporting on this incredible show of confidence in First Republic. It’s offensive.
The to-big-to-fail banks were the instant recipients of a huge multiple of deposits of what was placed with FRC. That of course, caused discount window borrowings to soar for smaller institutions who instantly saw their deposit bases vanish ($164 billion borrowed from DW). And now, after deposits of SVB were guaranteed, the Treasury wants the public to believe the funds placed with FRC are “uninsured.” Good one.
–Why didn’t FRC just tap the discount window directly? The maturity mismatch and inverted curve will create more issues, and after the ECB hike of 50 yesterday, the Fed is almost certain to hike 25 next week. FFJ3 settled 9523 or 4.77% vs EFFR of 4.57%. The Central Banks are trying to separate the inflation problem from the financial-stability-liquidity problem, but fighting the former with an inverted curve feeds directly into the latter.
–Here are atm straddle prices for SFRM3.
March 12
9475^ vs 9471.5, 39.0
March 13
9562.5^ vs 9558, 93.25
March 14
9537.5^ vs 9533.5, 93.0
March 15
9562.5^ vs 9561.5, 123.5
March 16
9525^ vs 9529.0, 80.0
These are analogous to insurance premiums. The big banks should be pasting every bid. THEY know THEIR deposits are insured. YOU know THEIR deposits are insured and that YOUR deposits are insured with THEM. The treasury guarantees it.
–Big equity option expiration today.
In: Eurodollar Options
What? Are you mad at money?
March 16, 2023
–Title was a Tom Dittmer classic, who ran Refco before a graceful exit and apparently didn’t like it when people did stupid things with money.
–El-Erian, “What we saw in a couple of financial institutions exposed something much bigger…”
–Credit Suisse thrown a $50b lifeline by SNB. Temporarily stabalizes markets. ECB today with a difficult decision.
–SOFR options markets extremely wide. Front straddle prices have now exceeded midcurves in an environment of dazzling uncertainty.
Examples on settle
SFRM3 9562.5^ 123.5 (9561.5)
0QM3 9650.0^ 112.5 (9646.0)
2QM3 9675.0^ 82.5 (9670.5)
These all expire 16-June.
–Curve steeper as twos outperformed. 2y 3.96% down 26 bps, 5y 3.577% down 22, 10y 3.487% down 15 and 30y 3.685% down 8. 2/10 was -110 after Powell semi-annual last week, now -47
–On the SOFR curve every three-month spread is inverted out to June’27. That is, each successive contract has a higher price/lower yield. Probably want to look at something like buying SFRM5 and selling something behind it, looking for that part of the curve to snap back positive. If 5/30 positive (and it is, at +11), then this part of the SOFR curve should be as well. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR ADVICE, just having a look.
–I knew a guy whose business card said “Treasury Market Credit Analyst” right under his name. Funny. No risk in treasuries… (right?)
Every big financial institution has hopped on the ‘wealth management’ gravy train to generate fees. Except now everyone is pouring into treasuries for safety, and you don’t really need an advisor for that. Treasuries and big tech. The money pouring into bonds is supporting the most profligate spender on the planet, the US government. Maybe the phrase “US Treasury Credit Analyst” should be stamped on every gold bar.
In: Eurodollar Options
Beware the ides
March 15, 2023
–Front end reverting back to lower levels as deposit guarantees remove immediate domino concerns. On Monday morning SFRM3 put in a high of 9582. It settled Tuesday at 9533.5 and this morning printed 9504.0. There has been some massive buying of April expiration puts on SFRM3. For example, +60k SFRJ 9525/9487.5ps for 11-12.5 (settle 16; appears to be roll-up). +30k April 9468.75p 9-10 covered 9526. +50k May 9550/9500 p 1×2 for 1.5-2.0, settled 1.25. This morning +60k April 9475p 13-14 covered 9524.
–On March 7, the atm SFRM3 9437.5^ settled 33.5. Yesterday the atm 9537.5^ settled 93 vs 9533.5. In terms of next week’s FOMC, a hike of 25 now appears to be base case, as FFJ3 settled 9524.5. EFFR is 457 to 458, a hike of 25 would mean 482 to 483 or 9517.5 at the midpoint.
–CPI was as expected, 6.0 with Core 5.5. Today PPI is released, expected 5.4 vs 6.0 last, with Core 5.2 vs 5.4. The funding crunch and mismatch experienced by SVB is impacting many companies, but the Fed has to make sure that emergency actions don’t unmoor inflation expectations. The absolute level of short-term rates isn’t the issue at this point; we know they are hurting. It’s getting harder to roll debt. The message has to be that easing is simply not on the near term horizon.
BELOW…is a link from the NY Fed from January 17, noting (and mostly dismissing) the rise in Discount Window borrowing from smaller banks. Perhaps that was a bigger clue than acknowledged?
In: Eurodollar Options
Might even call it a black swan
March 14, 2023
–On March 8, the low contract on the FF curve was October 2023 at 9431.5, which you might call the peak terminal rate of 5.685%. The FFU3 contract was close at 9533.0. Yesterday, FFV3 settled 9577 or 4.23%, a rally of 145.5 bps in a few sessions! Currently the low on the FF curve is FFK3 which settled 95.24 or 4.76%. In other words, peak FF has had 100 bps lopped off in a few days. Current EFFR is 4.57 or 95.43. April FF settled 9528.5 or 4.715; the difference to EFFR is 14.5 bps, so as of yesterday’s close, this contract reflects an even split between 0 and a 25 bp hike for next week’s FOMC.
–Today is, of course, CPI, expected 6.0% yoy with Core of 5.5%.
–Jim Bianco notes (twitter) “Today the 2-yr note declined 61 bps. This was the biggest one day decline since Oct 1, 1982… to emphasize, today’s decline in the 2-yr was larger than any one day seen during 2007- 2009…” Sept’23 SOFR contract settled up 101 bps at 9588.5, but had a range of 123.5. Unsurprisingly volume was massive on the SOFR curve at 14.5 million. Open interest fell slightly, with the bulk of the drop occurring in H3 at 122k (continues to trade even though IMM date has passed) and M3 which fell 72k.
–Curve had a huge move as flatteners, which had made new historic lows sparked by Powell’s semi-annual testimony last week, were exited at any cost. 2/10 was -110 on March 8 and -51 yesterday.
–SFRM3 9562.5^ settled 93.25 with futures 9658. On Thursday, SFRM3 settled 9443.5 and the 9437.5 straddle settled 34. The price of insurance is going up. Also on Thursday, FFJ3/FFJ4 spread, which can be thought of as a proxy for the Fed’s moves over that year, was POSITIVE 8.5. Yesterday it slipped to NEGATIVE 101.
In: Eurodollar Options
Near SOFR contracts continue to explode higher
March 13, 2023
–SFRU3 the strongest contract as of this writing, up an even 50 bps to 9537.5 as Goldman now says Fed will not hike next week. Thursday’s low in SFRU3 was 9429.5, so up over 100 in a couple of days. April FF had traded as low as 9498 as calls for a 50 bp hike became more shrill early last week. Now trades 9529 or 471, about halfway between 0 and a 25 bp hike at the March 22 meeting. The Fed is guaranteeing depositors to prevent a wider bank run. Signature bank was closed over the weekend.
–Gold is nearing $1900/oz again and bitcoin is 22k, both reflecting concerns over the health of financial architecture.
–In 2023 the range in 10y yield has been 337 to 406, now 355. The range in 30y has been 354 to 400, now 364. Can the market continue to hold 100% faith in long treasuries as a whole new support system grows which further shifts private obligations to the Federal Govt balance sheet?
In: Eurodollar Options
Summers and El-Erian
March 12, 2023 – weekly comment
Last week I wrote this (emphasis added) in my ‘Won’t Risk a Backslide’ missive:
Every so often, big name pundits proclaim the Fed is losing credibility or is way ‘behind the curve’. Obviously, the Fed was late in starting this hike cycle. However, it has been an incredibly aggressive year in terms of Fed adjustment. At the end of 2021 mortgage rates were sub-3%. On Friday the 30-yr fixed was 7.1% [7.02 on Friday 3/10]. The 2/10 spread is unambiguously reflecting tight policy, at a low for the cycle at -89. On Friday, Larry Summers was on BBG tv: “The Fed right now should have the door wide open to a 50 bp move in March. A reasonable assessment of where the Fed is would say that they have not been this far behind the curve for a year or so.” That is NOT a reasonable assessment, it’s blather for tv. The Fed just started to hike one year ago. The ’rules-based’ chart above shows how much the Fed has closed the gap. In any case, it’s worth noting that the Fed has more to think about than Larry. For example, there’s this clip from the Monetary Report Summary under ‘Financial Stability’:
Valuations in equity markets remained notable and ticked up, on net, as equity prices increased moderately even as earnings expectations declined late in the year. Real estate prices remain high relative to fundamentals, such as rents, despite a marked slowing in price increases.
I ended last week’s missive with this clip:
“For a while there, Financial Stability was almost thought of as a 3rd mandate for Fed policy. Now it’s back to the dual mandate of inflation and employment, dominated of course by considerations relating to the former. However, a couple of big blow-ups can put stability right back on the front burner.”
And here we are.
All of a sudden financial stability vaulted into the forefront with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. It’s a symptom. Obviously the rapid hike cycle is causing cracks, just like hiking cycles always do. I think back to the rapid rate hike cycle in 1994 when rates went from 3% to 6% from Feb 1994 to Feb 1995, culminating in the tequila crisis. But this cycle has been much more aggressive, from a base of zero rather than 3%. We’re gonna need more tequila.
The Fed has been sensitive to the idea that the effects of previous hikes are still winding through the system. In the Fed minutes of the Jan 31-Feb 1 FOMC, the staff noted tightening C&I and commercial real estate lending standards (citing Sr Loan Officer Survey SLOOS). “…in the January SLOOS banks reported expecting a deterioration in the quality of business loans in their portfolio over 2023.” BOOM! [Overall staff viewed risks as moderate].
In the participant section:
In their discussion of issues related to financial stability, several participants discussed vulnerabilities in the financial system associated with higher interest rates, including the elevated valuations for some categories of assets, particularly in the CRE sector; the susceptibility of some nonbank financial institutions to runs; and the effect of large, unrealized losses on some banks’ securities portfolios.[HELLO SVB!]
Against this backdrop, and in consideration of the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, almost all participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting.
It’s not as if this SVB episode is completely out of the blue. The Fed was sensitive to banks carrying fantasy valuations. However, big names like Summers and El-Erian helped push everyone to one side of the boat. CNBC headline on March 2: El-Erian says the Fed should go back to raising interest rates more aggressively. Then on March 8, (twitter) “The Fed’s ‘flip-flopping’ on mon-pol is threatening to send the economy into recession.” Well, Larry and Mo, you’ve had your say. Maybe now we should listen to what Curly has to offer:
[Cash and Carry is a particularly appropriate Stooges episode to explain the current problems. I don’t want to give away the ending, but our heroes blow up the US Treasury. Sound familiar?]
Starting at 5:44. Curly: “Five hundred dollars? Hmm, that’s almost a million.” Moe, to the kid, “Why don’t you put the money in the bank?” The kid responds, “Will the bank give it back to us?” Curly, “Oh sure. They didn’t used to! But now they do.” Larry, “And when you take it out, they give you some more.” [not this time, Larry]
Uninsured depositors at SVB will almost certainly be made whole, though probably with a delay. The US can’t afford a bank run where every large deposit suddenly goes only to TBTF institutions. A shotgun wedding is likely.
The Fed is meeting Monday. I would guess that any hike for March is now off the table. It’s all about providing liquidity.
I have previously noted a large buy of SFRZ3 9550/9750 call spreads for 33-35 on Feb 1. This call spread was immediately crushed in the post-Feb 3 NFP blow-out. However, with Friday’s 52.5 rally in SFRZ3 to 9516, this guy picked up 17.75 on the call spread which settled 30.5. I have also flagged the consistent buyer of 20k clips SFRH4 9625/9725 and 9612.5/9712.5 call spreads for 9.0 to 9.5 (total >100k). On Friday, SFRH4 was the star performer, up 54 on the day and 74.5 from the low settle on Wednesday of 9480.5. Settles on Friday: 9612.5/9712.5cs 22.5 and 9625/9725cs 20.25. On Thursday, I had a client pay 4 for the expiring 9500c on midcurve March. Up 51 bps in a day!
The question is of course, what now? All I can say is that the market (as of Friday) is still pricing a hike at the March 22 FOMC, as FFJ3 settled 9510 or 4.90%. Current EFFR is 458, a hike of 25 will mean 483 or 9517, so there are still some who think 50 is still plausible. Not Curly….the other two.
So what are the calendar spreads saying? For the past two months, the lowest one-year SOFR calendar has been Z3/Z4. Since January 3 it has been in a range of -119.5 to last week’s low of -158.5. Range in March has been -127.5 to -158.5, extremely wide for a 1-yr calendar. Settled Friday at -133.5. There has been, and still is, significant ease priced for the year of 2024, which squares with the last Fed projections at the Dec 22 FOMC: year-end FF projection for 2023 was 5.1% (up from 4.6 in September) and for 2024, 4.1, up from 3.9 in September. So the Fed had 100 bps of ease penciled in at the last FOMC. The problem is, despite banking issues, service inflation doesn’t seem to be coming down quickly. Biden’s budget plan is inflationary. So, the Fed doesn’t necessarily have to hike a lot more, but they must convince the market that relatively high rates will continue. They can do that by significantly raising the 2024 projection even though SVB likely takes all near-term hikes off the table.
Consider the June one-year calendars: On the week, SFRM3/M4 went from -81 to -124.5 as SFRM4 exploded and the market priced even more of an ease. However, SFRM4/M5 went the other way, UP 22.5 from -94.5 to -72.0. These are violent adjustments.
What about other financial institutions that are nursing losses which can bubble up to the surface? That’s what the Fed had WANTED. Powell often says he would like the labor market to come into better balance. (I’ll bet he’d like to see Elizabeth Warren out of a job). He should equally want asset prices that are forced to be more appropriately valued. As a client astutely noted: “…in 2001 you could watch the trainwreck center stage because all the no-profit tech companies were public, this time they are all in series C & D in the private markets so the problems are a little harder to see. … the amount of desperate inquiries for capital markets help on linked-in from private fintech companies that have to raise capital at half the value of their last round while their cost of borrowing has gone up 500+ bps is alarming.”
As Curly might say: We can make it better by making everyone poorer.
OTHER THOUGHTS/ TRADES
I’m a big fan of Mohamed El-Erian. I’ve also had a soft spot in my heart for Larry Summers ever since his characterization of the Winklevoss twins wearing ties and jackets on the Harvard campus:
“One of the things you learn as a college president is that if an undergraduate is wearing a tie and jacket on Thursday afternoon at three o’clock, there are two possibilities. One is that they’re looking for a job and have an interview; the other is that they are an asshole. This was the latter case.”
Ever since 2008 the Federal Gov’t balance sheet has ballooned as private debts were transformed into public debt. You can see it on the latest Fed Z.1 report, released last week. In 2007 Fed’l Gov’t Debt was $6.07T. It’s now well over 4x higher at $26.85T. In comparison, non-financial business sector debt went from $10.14T to $19.88T, not even 2x, and Household debt from $14.35T to just $18.95T (and that HH debt currently includes the billions in school debt that Biden wants to forgive).
This year the 30-yr bond yield has been in a range from 3.53 to 4.00, ending the week at 3.69, down 19 bps. The high last year was 4.38. Obviously we’re in the throes of flight-to-quality. However, the most indebted sector is Gov’t. Implied vol is at the high of this year (MOVE 140 Friday vs low 97 in Feb; high in October was 160). Worth buying US vol on any pullback and/or accumulating cheap US put spreads as the yield temporarily declines towards 3.5.
| 3/3/2023 | 3/11/2023 | chg | ||
| UST 2Y | 485.6 | 458.8 | -26.8 | |
| UST 5Y | 425.1 | 395.8 | -29.3 | |
| UST 10Y | 396.2 | 369.1 | -27.1 | |
| UST 30Y | 388.5 | 369.3 | -19.2 | |
| GERM 2Y | 321.4 | 309.7 | -11.7 | |
| GERM 10Y | 271.5 | 250.8 | -20.7 | |
| JPN 30Y | 141.4 | 138.7 | -2.7 | |
| CHINA 10Y | 292.1 | 288.1 | -4.0 | |
| SOFR M3/M4 | -81.0 | -124.5 | -43.5 | |
| SOFR M4/M5 | -94.5 | -72.0 | 22.5 | |
| SOFR M5/M6 | -20.0 | -17.0 | 3.0 | |
| EUR | 106.35 | 106.42 | 0.07 | |
| CRUDE (CLK3) | 79.79 | 76.78 | -3.01 | |
| SPX | 4045.64 | 3861.59 | -184.05 | -4.5% |
| VIX | 18.49 | 24.80 | 6.31 | |
In: Eurodollar Options
Jitters
March 10, 2023
–Silicon Valley Bank? Really? Well, ok. As shown, KBWB (bank etf) was down 7.6% yesterday and there’s a whiff of panic in the air. Now I suppose we see whether a Fed put still exists.
–Yesterday there was a late buyer of 25k TYK3 114.5c for 17. Settled 17 ref 111-155, expires 4/21. This morning TYM traded to a high of 112-13 and is currently around 112.
–More dramatic that that….On Wednesday SFRH4 traded as low as 9477.5. Last night to 9526. Nearly 50 bp swing in two days as March midcurve options expire today; 0QH3 9500^ settled 17.5 yesterday vs 9501. Every so often (including in the recently released Fed’s semi-annual report) there’s a bit of hand-wringing about liquidity issues in the treasury market. This type of volatility doesn’t lend itself to smooth market function. And that’s my insightful contribution for today.
–Payrolls expected 225k. FFJ3 settled 9502.0, still leaning a bit closer to a 50 bp hike at the March 22 meeting than 25. Midpoint is 9504.5, and that’s where we are this morning.
–A couple of bullet points regarding the fiscal situation:
BIDEN BUDGET PROJECTS ANNUAL DEFICITS OVER $1 TRILLION EACH YEAR THROUGH 2033
BIDEN BUDGET PROJECTS ANNUAL DEFICITS BETWEEN 4.6% AND 6.8% OF GDP THROUGH 2033
BIDEN BUDGET PROJECTS U.S. DEBT RISING FROM 97% OF GDP IN 2022 TO 109.8% IN 2033
In: Eurodollar Options
