Gold and Silver indicate stress is still present
October 13, 2025
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–I guess it was inevitable that Trump would backtrack from initial China threats with SPX -2.7% on Friday. While stock futures have had a nice bounce this morning, with ESZ5 up around 90 (6682 last), red SOFR contracts are only down 1 bp from Friday’s gain of 9.5 to 10. Peak contract is SFRH7, now printing 9700 from 9701s Friday. Bitcoin has recovered Saturday’s plunge, but is only back around Friday’s low ~115k. The star is Silver, with SIZ5 49.90 up 2.63 and cash over $51/oz. Gold is also at new highs, with GCZ5 4099, +98.60 on the day.
–Risk controls and margins likely to tighten up. Powell speaks tomorrow at 12:20 on the economic outlook (a bit cloudy?) with Waller on a discussion panel in the afternoon at 3:25 re: Payments (just tack it on to the back-end using PIK). CPI has now been scheduled for October 24, one week from Friday. While stocks are open today, the cash bond market is closed.
–Perhaps worth noting is that the 10y breakeven, (treasury – tip) ended at a slight new recent low of 232 bps Friday. The inflation outlook appears more dependent on the direction of stocks rather than tariffs. The high of the year was in February at 247 bps, and the Liberation month of April saw the low print of 217. Friday’s level is right in the middle.
