Ugly week
November 21, 2025
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–Massive reversals in stock futures following brief elation associated with NVDA results. You know how it is.
–SPX -1.56% and Nasdaq Comp -2.15% sparked a modest bid in the front end. Two-yr yield fell 4.2 bps to 3.556% while tens eased 3.1 bps to 4.102%. So, 2/10 spread pushed to a new recent high of 54.6, but it has been in a range of 42 to 62 since May, with an April spike up to 64. On Wednesday the market was leaning heavily towards the idea of the Fed holding steady at the December meeting, with FFF6 trading as low as 9618 (EFFR is 3.88 or 9612) but yesterday FFF6 settled 9623, +2 on the day and closer to 50/50. Huge volume in that contract of 663k with open int up 114k to 588k. SFRZ5 settled +1.5 at 9618, and Z6 +4.5 at 9693.5 (new low in Dec5/Dec6 at -75.5). Peak contract SFRH7 also +4.5 to 9696, nearing 3% again (actually 9702 this a.m). On Sept 5, SFRH7 hit 9719.5 and on Oct 17, 9717.
–Bitcoin seems to be leading stocks, as of this note (5:15 EST) around 82k, a breathtaking 35% drop from the early October high. The four month rally from early Apri to mid-July has been erased in less than half the time. Treasury futures are attempting an upside breakout this morning, with TYH6 113-08 (+14). Option expiration in Dec treasuries and equities could spice things up today. TYZ5 113.25^ currently 17/19 ref 113-10.
–Sept payrolls released yesterday were stronger than expected at 119k, but the unemp rate went to a new high of 4.4%. Data is old and irrelevant. If equities crumble that’s all that matters as wealth effect spending will go into winter hibernation. Credit quality concerns will be heightened.
–As of yesterday’s close, treasury rolls are about one third complete. TY 31%. FV 32%. With the general rally in futures, slightly longer durations in March contracts are pressuring rolls with FV now printing -3.0 and TY 1.5/1.75 and trade small to bid.
