Metals
December 26, 2025
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–The median home price in the US is $430k. This morning, with SIH6 at $74, the notional value of one contract is $370k (5000oz). A gold contract’s notional value is $453.5k. On the day before Thanksgiving, Nov 26, SIH6 was 53.60, a sizzling gain of 38% since then. April platinum is up 50% in that same time span. According to BBG, initial margin on a silver contract is $24.2k or about 6.5% of notional. My guess is that margins will be jacked up. Currently SIH6 has 111,935 contracts open, just under 600 million ounces.
–Yields edged a bit lower Wednesday. Tens ended at 4.134%, down 3.1 bps. TYH6 settled 112-165, and the 112.5^ at 1’35 or 4.4. Treasury vol remains at the year’s low, and in fact is at or under the level from 2021, before the Fed hiking campaign ever started. Are precious metals (and copper) a signal of renewed inflationary impulse?
