Merry Christmas to Yukon Cornelius!
December 24, 2025
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–Story continues to be silver (and other precious metals). Low settle in SIH6 in December was 57.49. This morning it prints 72, up 25% in less than one month.
–I don’t know if precious metals enter the inflation calculation, but Q3 price index printed 3.8% with GDP a sizzling 4.3%. So nominal growth 8%. Doesn’t feel like it… and the market isn’t buying it and obviously the Fed isn’t, having just cut, noting that inflation is still on track to the 2% target.
–In rates, the SOFR curve flattened. Weakest were SFRU6 and SFRZ6, both -4 at 9679.5 and 9684. Dec’26 is now the peak contract (loosely thought of as terminal rate) and it’s now 3.16%. So Z6, -4, Z7 -2 at 9670.5, Z8 -0.5 at 9651 and Z9 unch’d at 9634.5. Buyer added to position: +10k SFRU6 99.00/100cs for 1.25 to 1.5, both strikes now have >85k. He also has Z6 99/100/101 c flies in the book. Hey, if silver can make new all-time highs, then who says US rates can’t go back to zero?
–Reuters this morning reports that “Japan likely to cut super-long debt issuance to 17 year low.” Another article:
Major central banks have delivered interest rate cuts in 2025 at the fastest clip and largest scale since the financial crisis, while easing among policymakers in developing nations also accelerated.
Nine of the central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies lowered their benchmark lending rates in 2025: the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England — but also Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland.
–During COVID the US gov’t was handing out checks. Now the gov’t is going to be garnishing wages. Is there some reason to think that stocks are going to trade the same way? If pasted clip doesn’t appear, it says:
TRUMP ADMIN TO START SEIZING PAY OF DEFAULTED STUDENT LOAN BORROWERS IN JANUARY
GameStop Bros in reverse….
on December 24, 2025 at 10:16 am
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Merry Christmas Alex. Thank you for the great posts and all the laughs. I saw a Yukon Cornelius ornament the other day. I should go back and buy it.
Best wishes to you and your family for the new year.
-Bill
P.S. In Philadelphia it’s worth fifty bucks.