All better
June 15, 2026
***********
–July Crude is down 4.75 this morning to 80.13 on news of a deal which opens the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks and bonds have soared, although bonds are more muted in their response. August gold +121 this morning to 4344, a bounce from the protracted slide since mid-April, when the contract was 4900.
–Given high official inflation readings recently, does this development tip the scales toward easing as Warsh steps into the Fed Chair role on Wednesday? Currently there’s little evidence on the SOFR strip, with red contracts only +4.5 to 5 this morning. For example, the lowest near contract SFRM7 is printing 9605 which is +5.5 (3.95%), but that’s still over one-quarter pct higher in yield than the current Fed Effective rate of 3.62. With ES and NQ again looking to test all-time highs, perhaps wealth effect spending will keep inflation perky even if oil drops.
–News today includes Empire Mfg, which was 19.6 last, strongest since 2022. Also Industrial Production, expected +0.3%. Housing Starts tomorrow, with Retail Sales and FOMC on Thursday.
–Foreclosure in the heart of Chicago’s Gold Coast: (Real Deal) The 267,800-square-foot Hilton Suites at 198 East Delaware Place… LNR Partners represents the bondholders who foreclosed on the 30-story hotel three years ago… Procaccianti, the previous owners, gave up the hotel through a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure tied to almost $70 million in debt on the property. CoStar data has the building pegged at a $48 million valuation.
–By comparison, a single family home at 1355 N Astor (a few blocks away from the hotel) is listed at $21 million.
https://www.chicagostarmedia.com/candid_candace/chicago-s-most-expensive-historic-home-for-sale-at-21m/article_a79df302-dbd7-433e-920b-6e6bdf78be88.html
https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/1355-N-Astor-St-60610/home/14124756
