Rate futures holding a bid going into today’s July treasury opt expiry
June 26, 2026
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–After a blazing upside move in chips following MU’s stellar earnings report, we’re seeing a bit of a pullback this morning with KOSPI down around 6%, and MU down 5% pre-open with SNDK in a similar decline. AAPL fell 6.1% yesterday wiping out about $240b in market cap as an announcement of product price increases didn’t fly. OpenAI said to be delaying IPO into 2027. Another interesting note is that CME stock has cratered 31% from the high in March, with latest weakness coming from Kalshi, and a lawsuit being filed by CME against the CFTC’s approval of perpetual futures listed by Kalshi.
–Yesterday featured a pop in interest rate futures as PCE data came out essentially as expected. Again, forward measures on inflation are likely being marked down due to oil’s collapse. One surprising note was a revision in Q1 Pers Consumption from +1.4 to just +0.5%. 2y yield eased 1.4 to 4.125% with tens down nearly 1 bp to 4.392%. Red SOFR contracts +2.25 to an average of 9614.38, while greens were +1.25% to 9624.25 or around 3.75%, right at the upper end of the current FF target. As of this note, reds and greens are +3.5, just above yesterday’s highs.
–Payrolls released Thursday with the shortened holiday week, NFP expected 115k.
