Back and fill from Friday
April 20, 2026
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–Friday’s ceasefire moonshot to new highs in stocks is being tempered this morning as the US seized an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend. On Friday CLM6 plunged 8.58/bbl to 82.59. This morning it has rebounded to 87.30. ESM last 7130, -31.50.
–On Friday yields fell with 2s and 5s leading. 2y ended 3.70%, down 7.6 bps and 5y at 3.838, -7.5. Ten year -6.2 at 4.245%. While the 2y is back in the FF target range of 3.50-3.75%, tens are still half percent higher. Curve steepened, with 2/10 at a slight new high 54.5 and 5/30 104.7. On the SOFR strip M7 was strongest, +10.5 at 9657.5. Peak contract Z7 is 9668, +10 on the day, rate of 3.32%, 32 bps under current EFFR 3.64.
–Warsh scheduled for Senate hearing tomorrow.
–Japan issues tsunami warning on a 7.4 quake near Miyako.
