Big Event Week
April 27, 2026
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–Friday featured a small reprieve from the move to higher rates. 2y yield fell almost 5 bps to 3.774%. 10s -1.5 to 4.307%. Strongest SOFR contract was SFRH7 which rose 6 bps to 9642 (3.58% vs EFFR of 3.64%). Low last week was 9633.5. Peak SOFR contract is SFRH8 at 9657. Ten yr treasury/tip breakeven made a new high 243 bps. Since 2023 this spread has been capped around 250 bps, a move above that would signal heightened concern about inflation. CLM6 at time of writing Monday morning is 96.52, +2.12 on the day.
— Not much in the way of economic data today but 2 and 5 year notes are auctioned, $69b and $70b. 7yr on Tuesday ($44b). The rest of the week is packed with central bank decisions and earnings. (BBG) BOJ sets rates Tuesday, the FOMC is Wednesday, and the BOE and ECB on Thursday. META, AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT report Wednesday. AAPL, OWL earnings and US growth land Thursday, while Exxon posts on Friday.
–Interesting X post says that in Texas a few years ago “… sub-4% mortgages were more than 3x as common as 5%+ mortgages. But now they’re nearly the same.” The implication is the thawing of housing with more price cuts. (I’m not certain that current mortgage rates support that view; Bankrate 30y fixed now 6.35%,
