Big start for a quiet August
August 4, 2025
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–Big beautiful bounce in equity futures this morning as economic information and policy interpretations become more fluid.
–Massive decline in front-end rates Friday due to NFP at only 73k with huge revisions lower over the previous two months. Friday settle of FFV5 at 9589 (4.11%) is 22 bps higher than Fed Effective of 4.33 (9567). So not quite certainty of an ease at the September FOMC, but close. SFRZ5 rose 29 on Friday to 9626, while SFRH6 was the leader, +31.5 to 9649.5. SFRU5/Z5 made a new low of -32.5 (9593.5/9626). One-year calendars, which have been in prolonged downtrends all year, popped higher as nearer contracts rallied more due to the prospect of near terms cuts. For example, SFRH6/H7 settled -48, up 11 bps on the day, from -59 (new low) on Friday.
–Large buys Friday include 50k each 0QZ5 9787.5/9800cs for 1.0 and 0QZ5 9837.5/9850cs for 0.5. SFRZ6 settled 9696.
–Fed Governor Kugler resigned. I looked up Governor salaries: $250k/yr. Perhaps not worth the stress of what might become a contentious job!
–PLTR reports today. Plenty of earnings reports this week. I haven’t even carefully finished this article yet but am posting link anyway…
It contains a graphic with this info:
Infrastructure Capex as % of GDP, by Era
Railroads (1880s) 6.0%
Telecom (2020) 1.0 to 1.2%
AI Data Centers (2025) 1.2% (and just getting started)
possible bust to follow?
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/will-data-centers-crash-the-economy?
| Will data centers crash the economy?This time let’s think about a financial crisis before it happens.www.noahpinion.blog |
Americana
https://www.the-sun.com/motors/14893924/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-rally-august-south-dakota-festival/
