brief notes
February 9, 2026
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–Takaichi win in Japan sends stocks there to record. $/yen slightly weaker at 156.63.
–Little change (once again) in US rate futures Friday. 2y up 1.2 bps to 3.493%. 10y nearly unch’d at 4.206%. 3, 10 and 30 year auctions this week, with the 10yr on Wednesday following NFP and annual benchmark revisions. BBG reports ‘China urges banks to curb US Treasury exposure’. TYH6 is 111-30+ this morning, down 5.
–On Friday, SFRH6/H7 one-year calendar made a new low at -47 (9639, -2.0/9686, -1.0). FFJ6/FFJ7 settled -50.5 (9641/9691.5). Next FOMC is March 18; April FF are currently assigning 10% odds of an ease at that meeting. Around 2 cuts being priced over the next year.
–No news today, tomorrow includes Retail Sales, Employment Cost Index and 3y auction. Wednesday payrolls expected 69k from 50k last.
